other than too close for comfort? It just sounds kind of delusional and echo-chamberish.

For example, some polling is showing Biden to be *weaker* than Hilary was with some key constituencies, namely in support from Black and Latin-American people, and... she lost. Eg. recent post-convention Emerson polling (pollster rating of A- by 538) shows 45s black support has *doubled* to ~20% compared to this point in 2016, and that he's enjoying almost 40% (!!) Hispanic support as well:

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/august-2020-presidential-race-tightens-after-party-conventions

Additionally, the Primary/Norpoth model - one of very few models to correctly predict 45's victory in '16, and which has correctly predicted every presidential election outcome since '96 except for Bush-Gore in 2000 - predicts 45 will win again:

http://primarymodel.com/2020.

Not advocating for either candidate, mind you. But wondering if I'm the only one seeing parallels between '16 and '20 in terms of Dem overconfidence and strategic misfires...



>im not gonna post them all.
>
>but basically no significant trump bounce or shift in his
>direction post-rnc or post-kenosha.
>
>any minor tightening can largely be marked up to poll
>screening being moved from registered voters to likely
>voters.
>
>suburban white support of biden has remained flat/stable. no
>evidence the scaremongering is working.
>
>crime in their area is barely a top 5 issue on voters minds
>this election (if that).
>
>and people trust biden over trump to keep them safe by a
>healthy margin.
>
>the worst part for trump is that people are increasingly
>believing that both the pandemic and economic downturn are
>gonna be here for a longer period of time.