it just seems like a lot of people converged on a narrative that dems are worried about trump making gains in the suburbs, overperforming with minorities, etc. and i dont know why. things have been remarkably stable for the longest and im not sure anything can upend that.

i saw rose twitter passing around a poll that showed biden doing worse with republicans than obama and clinton. basically tryna say his overt outreach to aisle crossers blew up in his face.

but there was no mention of republicans who no longer consider themselves republicans and the ones who have officially switched party or gone independent.

i mean look at this fucking party affiliation gap now.
https://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/xhcoat4dducgofndjeyvza.png

look at this crazy stat.
https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1298976700278222848
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Among Republicans, 49% identify themselves as supporters of Trump vs 37% as supporters of the party, per ⁦@WSJ @NBCNews poll. In the first group, Trump's approval is 99%, in the second it's 69%. ⁦@catherine_lucey @learyreports
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its hard to really tell whats what after 2016. but damn near every single traditional metric is telling us that biden is flirting with landslide blowout territory right now (even the generic congressional ballot which is as big or bigger than it was in 2018).

and really the only thing that people point to trump having a chance to win is the electoral college. thats the whole ballgame. he would have to pull off another inside straight but under worse conditions for him...with no comey/wikileaks...and dems taking over the election apparatus in the majority of swing states in 2018 and making it easier for people to vote in 2020.