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Forum nameGeneral Discussion
Topic subjectNot a housing market expert but here's a couple big picture things
Topic URLhttp://board.okayplayer.com/okp.php?az=show_topic&forum=4&topic_id=13391698&mesg_id=13400310
13400310, Not a housing market expert but here's a couple big picture things
Posted by Cocobrotha2, Thu Aug-20-20 09:53 AM
>
>Not to mention, my luck I’d over pay right before
>the market crashes too.
>
>About ready to switch realtors or just pause altogether.
>
>Wish I knew someone who was a housing market
>expert that wasn’t trying to sell me something.

Rates are going to stay low for the forseeable future as a way of limiting the impact of the COVID-motivated economic shutdown.

Low interest rates help keep house prices high and the uncertainty with everything right now keeps inventory down by scaring people from taking on extra financial burden with a new, more expensive house.

But alot of people don't have jobs. And one of the reasons we haven't seen mass evictions and foreclosures is because the government hasn't been allowing them to even happen. Plus, they juiced unemployment benefits to the point some people are even making more now than they did with a job.

The moratoriums and benefits are starting to end... and we're likely not completely done with COVID.

So my belief is that local areas that have a large percentage of workers in the service sector are going to see the brunt of foreclosures. Even if there isn't a second wave and shutdown, it's going to be awhile until alot of those jobs come back because much of the service sector just won't be allowed to open back to full strength (and people would be wary of using them even if they were fully open).

The only way property values stay up in those areas is if investors come in an snap them all up (and there are many people who intend on doing just that).

I think areas with a higher percentage of white collar workers will be more insulated but not immune.

Beyond a couple years, though, who knows what could happen. Some people think a depression, others think hyper inflation.

Either way, I believe there's a high risk that people buying right now are buying in at a market top... but it's manageable risk if its a house and a payment you wouldn't mind being "stuck" in for a decade or more.