There's a catastrophe more immediate than politics, of course, but the political consequences will be huge and long lasting.

By November, either the crisis will have passed, or it will still be ongoing.

If it's still ongoing, Trump gets the 'rally around the flag' effect that every president gets in a national crisis, even if they're handling it poorly. It seems incomprehensible that people are rating Trump's response positively so far, but this is presumably why. Moreover, by November people will be fucking terrified and worn out, and there's nothing Trump does better than exploiting fear and laziness.

If the crisis has passed, then he gets underserved gravitas for having 'seen the country through the crisis,' even though he's made the wrong decision at every stage. The best we'll be able to say is "Trump should have seen this coming, he should have acted in the months and years before this crisis. Look at this list of news stories from January 2020!" We tried that very argument against George W Bush, and it never worked. W failed miserably on 9/11, and he got reelected for it.