https://plusthree.com/news/updates/african_americans_invest_in_2019_campaigns/


A minority-owned (yay!) firm analyzed data (up to Dec 31 2019) from the ActBlue platform that (most?) Dem candidates were using. Kind of an interesting sampling approach, basically inferring race based on surname (which the census bureau does provide propensity estimates for) and geography (i.e. majority-black zipcodes) and constructing a black donor sample from that. I'm a little skeptical about how representative their sample could be (I'm think their propensity model may have biased results to Black/ADOS donors in the south or with southern ties, at the expense of black donors in regions like the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic etc or with heritage other than ADOS), but gotta start somewhere I guess. Interesting findings either way:


Estimated Total Dollars Donated by Black Donors: $40,848,906

Estimated Total of Contributions: 1,941,271

Estimated Average Donation Amount: $21.03



Estimated Black Donation Totals Per Primary Candidate:
======================================================
$10,588,778 - Bernie Sanders
$6,853,765 - Elizabeth Warren
$6,075,504 - Pete Buttigieg
$3,651,449 - Joe Biden
$2,999,488 - Kamala Harris *suspended Dec 3, 2019
$2,438,540 - Andrew Yang
$1,449,537 - Amy Klobuchar
$1,426,265 - Beto O'Rourke *suspended Nov 1, 2019
$1,248,673 - Cory Booker
$1,018,672 - Julian Castro
<$1,000,000 - Tulsi Gabbard, Wayne Messam, and all remaining candidates except Deval Patrick and Michael Bloomberg

Figure: https://plusthree.com/images/aa_donors_0320_1.png



Estimated Proportion of Black Donors Per Primary Candidate:
===========================================================
14.77% - Elizabeth Warren
14.70% - Bernie Sanders
14.37% - Julian Castro
14.20% - Kamala Harris *suspended Dec 3, 2019
14.06% - Cory Booker
13.29% - Joe Biden
12.47% - Pete Buttigieg
11.87% - Andrew Yang
11.71% - Tim Ryan
11.28% - Marianne Williamson
10.87% - Tulsi Gabbard
10.32% - Beto O'Rourke *suspended Nov 1, 2019
<10.0% - Amy Klobuchar and all remaining candidates except Deval Patrick and Michael Bloomberg

Figure: https://plusthree.com/images/aa_donors_0320_2.png



Estimated Monthly Black Support Per Primary Candidate:
=====================================================
https://plusthree.com/images/aa_donors_0320_3.png

^looks like they only covered the folks that were still competing and received votes in the early states i.e. Biden, Buttigieg, Gabbard, Klobuchar, Sanders


Estimated Monthly Black Support For Kamala Harris and Cory Booker Only:
=======================================================================
https://plusthree.com/images/aa_donors_0320_4.png


Estimated Black Donor Distribution by Zipcode:
==============================================
https://plusthree.com/images/aa_donors_0320_9.png

^Note: you can start to see here what I meant about their propensity model biasing their sample towards Black/ADOS from the south/with southern ties. I find it very hard to believe there was a (relative) dearth of black donors in the northeast, mid-atlantic, etc as their mapping suggests.



Overall pretty interesting. Other than my concern about how representative their sample is, I'm not too surprised by anything EXCEPT Pete Buttigieg nearly *tying* Warren for 2nd place (?!) in estimated total dollars of black donor support. Considering she lead the field in estimated 'proportion' of black donors, and candidates only differed in estimated proportion of black donors by a few percentage points... and also the fact that he was second only to Bernie in minority support in the early contests where he won/tied/did well eg. IA, NH... I don't see how it is possible he had "zero black support" and I'm not sure I'll ever forgive the media for incessantly hanging that narrative around his neck all cycle with their bunk ass polls. Like he raised almost DOUBLE the amount of money from black donors that Biden & Kamala did, in total AND monthly, with a FRACTION of their name ID and nascent ties to the community. He was doing fine, and folks like Klobuchar or Beto - who the media was always trying to interchange him with - were not even close. He only did poorly with minority voters in the states where literally everyone else who was not Bernie (NV) & not Biden(SC) did. And considering he was one of the top fundraisers throughout the primary, his ~12% proportion of black donor probably translated to more dollars and donors than the ~13%-14% Biden, Kamala, Booker, and Castro were at. Ugh. lol

Anyway. Warren's fundraising strength with black voters is impressive. I wish this study could have looked at the gender breakdowns too. I'd be interested to see who, between Warren and Kamala, has stronger support from black women.