I'm starting to wonder if the Dems' obsession with level of minority support only makes sense when the base is cohesive. With how polarized things are right now, hinging the nomination on a lagging frontrunner's small minority base doesn't seem to be making any sense electorally. Like, great, Biden can be the President of older black people; he's in 4th place and has only won *1* county that flipped Obama to 45 in '16. Bernie has almost full support saturation with Generation Z? Ok great... except they're only 10% of the electorate https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/an-early-look-at-the-2020-electorate/. And yes, Bernie's support among Latin Americans is incredible. But as the largest minority they're still only 13.3% of electorate https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/an-early-look-at-the-2020-electorate/psdt_2020electorate-00/)

Furthermore, according to Pew Research, HRC had the black and latino vote on lock in '16 while 45 secured the vote of 15% more white Americans, PLUS she also had 3M+ more in the popular vote. How did that work out for the Dems? Gen Z + Millenials + Gen X outvoted Boomers by 2 percentage pts in '16 (https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/07/31/gen-zers-millennials-and-gen-xers-outvoted-boomers-and-older-generations-in-2016-election/ft_19-05-02_generationsvoteupdate_1/) How did that work out for the Dems? People say it's about turn out? Ok fine: Turnout for the "blue wave" 2018 midterms was the highest and most diverse of any midterm election in US history (https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/05/01/historic-highs-in-2018-voter-turnout-extended-across-racial-and-ethnic-groups/), and NOT ONE Our Revolution/Justice Dem/Bernie-backed candidate won their election.

So, I mean... I donno. It's great for the left-wing that Bernie was able to capitalize on his Latin American support in NV. The same will probably occur in CA and similarly diverse states. And it's great that Bernie (barely) won his neighboring state. But, like you, I'm still not convinced he has broad enough support (as opposed to enthusiastic tightly concentrated support) to flip the necessary number of pivot counties here - https://www.270towin.com/maps/2016-actual-electoral-map - to secure victory in a GE.

I mean this recent swing state polling out of quinnipiac that people have been talking about:

Favorability PA/MI/WI

Pete Buttigieg: +2/+2/-4
Bernie Sanders: -11/-5/-13
Elizabeth Warren: -15/-16/-17
Joe Biden: -8/-12/-20
Michael Bloomberg -19/-10/-20

Top Concern PA/MI/WI

Percentage saying Economy: 31/29/35
Percentage saying Healthcare: 27/26/24
Percentage saying Climate: 35/24/12

It's like the candidates polling highest nationally don't have the greatest favorability where it's needed. I mean the region's top concern is the ECONOMY, and 45 destroys every frontrunner in head-to-head there, but SURE... put up the socialist with the $90T platform or the 80yr olds (including a billionaire) with the worst favorability. The center-left dude literally from the region with the paid for platform that's actually winning pivot counties is too much of a *risk* smh.







>
>I just want a win.