https://assets.ctfassets.net/4ubxbgy9463z/2Tg9oB55ICu2vtYBaKKcVr/d124e0eeb128ad3a8d8ab8a6ccae44c0/20191031_Medicare_for_All_Cost_Letter___Appendices_FINAL.pdf#page=5

with a majority of them (5 out of 7) converging on an estimated pricetag somewhere between $25T-$34T (and 4 of those 5 studies estimating $30T+).

Even if we take a lazy average of like ~3T/yr... that is still a spending increase which would ALMOST DOUBLE WHAT THE ENTIRE US FEDERAL BUDGET IS NOW lol: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55342

But in Bernie's M4A financing proposal that you link, EVEN IF all the provisions he lists get enacted into law, over 10y they don't even add up to $20T:

$3.9T (7.5 percent income-based premium paid by employers) +
$3.5T (4 percent income-based premium paid by households) +
$4.2T (Savings from Health Tax Expenditures) +
$1.8T (More Progressive Income Tax (40% on income $250,000-$500,000; 45% on income $500,000-$2 million; 50% on income $2M-$10M; 52% on income >$10M) +
$1.3T (Wealth Tax on Top 0.1 percent, currently those worth >$21M *btw is this in addition to the 'tax on extreme wealth' listed on his website?? Because that formula states a threshold of $32M and est. revenue of $4.3T https://berniesanders.com/issues/tax-extreme-wealth/) +
$0.247T (Mandate payroll and 3.8% Medicare taxes for S-Corporations) +
$0.767T (One-time tax on currently held offshore wealth (unspecified rate)) +
$0.117T (Fee on Large Financial Institutions) +
$0.112T (Outlaw LIFO corporate accounting)
-----------------------------------------------
= just under $16T

^Which is barely HALF the additional revenue most independent studies estimate the government needs to sustain a single-payer system for a 10y period, talk less of beyond.


Warren's attempt also comes up short (bless her heart for trying to save this idea tho):

$8.8T (Employer Medicare Contribution,*plus, if needed, supplemental EMC from large companies with high executive compensation and stock buyback rates) +
$1.4T (Americans' Freed Up Take-Home Pay No Longer Going To Premiums But Subject to Existing Taxes) +
$2.3T (30% Reduction in Tax Evasion/Fraud via Heightened IRS Enforcement) +
$0.9T (0.001% Financial Transaction tax on sales of bonds, stocks, or derivatives; Fee on Large Financial Institutions) +
$2.9T (Corporate Taxation Reforms (Minimum Rate Increase, Country-by-Country Minimum, Foreign Firm Tax)) +
$1T (Wealth Tax (Billionaire Tax @ 3% on wealth >$1B *taxed in addition to 3% Billionaire surcharge in the Ultra-Millionaire Tax that is allocated to other programs)) +
$2T (Capital Gains Tax Reform on 1%( Mark-to-Market scheme taxing capital gains income (excluding retirement accounts) as labor income and on an annual basis rather than time of sale/transfer)) +
$0.4T (Comprehensive Immigration Reform) +
$0.8T (Defense Cut)
-----------------------------------------------
= $20.5T

^EVEN AFTER accounting for the concession her experts/advisors make in the report about how difficult it would be to estimate the extent utilization would increase (hint: it will probably be higher than anyone can fathom lol). And both Bernie and Warren seem to buy into an assumption that the government can just slash in half the pay of every doctor, surgeon, dentist, physical therapist, etc in the united states and not cause any labor market distortion, which is absurd.

So ya. 4% for how long??? Lol. Both M4A proposals come up short and the extra money would have to come from somewhere, no? I feel like Bernie's plan exposes taxpayers to a lot of risk. I've also questioned here before whether it makes sense to rely even partially on wealth taxes for a staple program, since their whole purpose is to shrink that tax base. (For example right on the website Bernie states his wealth tax is designed to reduce the the holdings of the top 0.1% (those worth >$32M) by 50% in 15 years. Ok... and their contribution to the healthcare system would be made up how??). Plus if Bernie and Warren want to rely on the private sector so much for M4A funding via corporate taxes, then it starts to beg the question why not just save everybody the headache and let mofos stay in business but REGULATE them better so that more of their capital is redistributed to help Americans?? And I feel like this is more where Pete's coming from.

I guess, for me, it's just difficult to see either M4A plans as better paths when the US population could achieve similarly universal coverage with a public option that's paid for, painlessly sustainable, and much faster/easier to implement. Lol