13355953, BINGO. I think this is it:|
Posted by kfine, Thu Nov-14-19 03:18 PM
>But a part of me thinks that some Dems aren't afraid Bernie or
>Warren would lose to Trump. I think they are afraid one of
>them would win.
Exactly. It's easy to forget sometimes there's more than one Dem nomination process happening too.
I mean Bloomberg, Patrick.. and whoever else might jump in from the shadows?? No way these guys are throwing their name in this late to actually build coalitions, sweep states, etc lol. Though it might help their cause. I think the filings might just be a formality at this point bc what they're really competing for is the delegate game behind-the-scenes.
Like, most regular folks probably still think their support could help determine the nominee. Their focus is on hoping their fave will win the state caucuses/primaries, purity-testing their fave's opponents' policies and donors, etc. The cute stuff. Meanwhile, the actual donor class/Dem establishment already anticipated a brokered convention a long time ago and has probably been putting plans in play for that all along.
I'm still game-theorizing (lol), but so far I think party insiders had a "(Instead Of) Bernie Plan" and a "(Just In Case We Can't Rely On) Biden Plan". I think both plans (initially) favored Warren, and that they completely underestimated Buttigieg's ability to appeal to both moderates and progressives (he's pulling secondary supporters from all over.. Biden, Warren, Harris, Klobuchar, etc).
But they seem to be scrambling now, because they didn't anticipate Warren doubling-down as strongly as she has to her progressive leanings/inner tax maniac (eg. with her M4A plan) and there appears to be some latent ageism and homophobia when it comes to Buttigieg (who else could some obviously-not-progressive donor types be talking about when they say they're not confident about the field?? He's the only other high-polling moderate) despite his emergence as a 'unifying' candidate (at least in ideological coalition).
Basically: Warren was probably the "insider approved" emergency backup for both Sanders and Biden but she stopped moving as expected and they realized they have no backup-plan-for-the-backup-plan. And their weird electability calculus won't let them give Buttigieg a chance. So now it appears their plan is to pump more moderates in the field that insiders and all their Never45 friends can "get behind", who can replace Warren as the emergency backup nominee and peel away Buttigieg delegates if he keeps outperforming Biden.
Only wealthy insiders could even MEET the criteria TO BE such late candidates, because who else would have the resources and connections to stand-up even a pretend campaign a few months before votes start being cast? lol. I really don't thin these late entries have anything to do with the people/electorate. They're gonna pick who it'll be at the convention and move on.