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Forum nameGeneral Discussion
Topic subjectWait, what? Why should "she" be the one to drop out for "him"?
Topic URLhttp://board.okayplayer.com/okp.php?az=show_topic&forum=4&topic_id=13344033&mesg_id=13361750
13361750, Wait, what? Why should "she" be the one to drop out for "him"?
Posted by kfine, Fri Jan-10-20 02:02 PM
Like.. first of all, the notion that Bernie would even consider dropping out if their numbers were reversed is laughable. He didn't drop out in 2016 after losing his mathematical path to the nomination. He didn't even drop out this cycle after having a heart attack. So that hypothetical is a non-starter.

And even if Warren DID decide to drop out and all her support transferred to Bernie (unlikely since only about 1/3 list him as their 2nd choice anyway: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/voters-second-choice-candidates-show-a-race-that-is-still-fluid/)... his RCP average is like 20% and hers is just under 15% (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html). So AT MOST she could bump him to maybe 35% ... well below the 51% a candidate needs to be effectively sweeping the race and averting a brokered convention (assuming poll averages might roughly translate to delegate apportionments). It would be colossally pointless.

There's also the fact that, in terms of bridging progressives and moderates, Warren is a much stronger consensus nominee than Bernie if we look at some of the ranked choice simulations lying around (https://www.vox.com/2019/9/12/20860985/poll-democratic-primary-ranked-choice-warren-biden) or her aggregate popularity as a 2nd choice (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/11/14/the_impact_of_voter_second_choices_as_2020_dems_drop_out_141732.html). She's also in far better health than Bernie (https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/10/10/bernie-sanders-heart-attack-229841), younger than him (at 70 she would be the age Bernie is now at the END of 2 presidential terms), and more energetic.

I also happen to think Warren's demonstrated repeatedly that she'd in fact be the most *competent* executor of the progressive agenda - fiscally, financially, and legislatively - but that could be a whole other reply and is a somewhat subjective assessment.

She should stay in the race or leave if she wants to, the most important thing is its her call alone to make. She's, what, only the 2nd woman in US history to advance this far/poll this well/raise this much money in a presidential primary? Let her cook.