>
>meanwhile...the lesser known candidates (whose needle is moved
>further by better-informed and more-educated voters who drill
>down on politics) actually make more sense. warren voters
>choose sanders (progressive). kamala/p booty voters choose
>liz (basically candidate quality over name value).
>

SO LITTLE is known about the supporter composition of most of the LOWER-tier candidates. (The donor analysis I linked above is some of the little data I've seen).

We might joke now and view lower-tier candidates as non-factors, but those small percentages will add tf up as dropouts occur. It would be helpful if the media/pollsterati could actually do its job and get a sense of where these abandoned supporters will migrate to. Like who are THEIR supporters' 2nd choices, you know what I mean?

For example, Inslee dropped out this week. According to that donor analysis I linked above, he had the 4th highest proportion of Boomer donors after Warren (even though he's polling <1% according to RCP https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html). Still, I wonder who Inslee's folks will support now? In fact, when I look at the lower tiers and just try to guess what higher-tier candidates everyone's abandoned supporters might flock to, I mostly end up with a sprinkling of:

*Biden (he might get the lower-tier centrists' supporters i.e. Delaney, Ryan, Bennet, Bullock etc, which is maybe 3% or so and negligible to his lead);

*Sanders (he'd probably get most of Tulsi's supporters if/when she drops, plus some pickups from Yang and maybe Beto?? Either way maybe he picks up 3-4%)

*and most interestingly Warren. She's the most popular 2nd choice across the board for most Dem voters:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-16/o-rourke-pushes-to-combat-white-supremacy-guns-campaign-update

And most critically, as per your link I referenced above, she's the top 2nd choice for the REMAINDER of the top-tier polling below her (i.e. Harris and Buttigieg). So if THEY were to drop out, Warren could pick up like 10+ percentage points, which would likely help her overtake Sanders (even with his dropout gains) and even put her neck-and-neck with Biden. And that's before factoring in the few percentage points she might pick up from dropouts by folks like Booker, Castro, Gillibrand, etc. (whose supporters I reeally don't see overlapping with Biden or Sanders).

Again, all conjecture. But plausible conjecture lol

That said... I'd be willing to bet delegate support follows an entirely different distribution than the polls, which could matter a great deal.