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Forum nameGeneral Discussion
Topic subjectLol, I hear you. All good points. And to your question re: Sanders' lag:
Topic URLhttp://board.okayplayer.com/okp.php?az=show_topic&forum=4&topic_id=13344033&mesg_id=13344515
13344515, Lol, I hear you. All good points. And to your question re: Sanders' lag:
Posted by kfine, Thu Aug-22-19 06:37 PM
>
>why do you think sanders isnt at least in 2nd place among
>older voters? warren almost doubles him in 50+ and quadruples
>his support in 65+.
>
>it seems kinda hard to say bernie isnt struggling with older
>voters when *warren* also does better than him in both age
>groups over 50 (especially 65+). its an even bigger red flag
>imo when you figure those groups are the most socially
>conservative and shes doing better running to the left of
>bernie on many issues and is also a woman.
>


Hmmm, well.. if Biden's and Bernie's "Boomer base" converges as tightly as I suspect it does, then they're literally fighting for the same exact set of Boomers and it's possible those specific Boomers strongly prefer Biden?

Like when there was no Biden, Bernie was their guy. But once Biden committed... lol.

And it's possible the "Biden-Bernie" Boomer set doesn't overlap with Warren's Boomer base - like at all - which might insulate her from Biden-Bernie tectonics?? I could definitely see that.

Straight up conjuecture though, lol. I don't think there's much data on this tbh.


Another theory is: assuming Bernie might attract the most prickly/angry/anti-establishment Boomers, perhaps such Boomers defected from Bernie to 45?? There is the weird "horsheshoe" to account for after all:

https://www.npr.org/2017/08/24/545812242/1-in-10-sanders-primary-voters-ended-up-supporting-trump-survey-finds

Maybe as the Dem primary became more and more of a circus, there were some defections. And (to my knowledge) the only top-tier Dem primary candidate that's been shown to share supporters with 45 is Sanders. I haven't seen any demographic breakdowns of the horsehoe, but it's a possibility I guess..