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Topic subjectwarren edges out sanders imo. the age demos doom bernie.
Topic URLhttp://board.okayplayer.com/okp.php?az=show_topic&forum=4&topic_id=13344033&mesg_id=13344470
13344470, warren edges out sanders imo. the age demos doom bernie.
Posted by Reeq, Thu Aug-22-19 03:25 PM
a little while ago...sanders surrogates were lashing out at unfavorable polls...saying they oversampled voters 50+ yrs old. but who do you think votes in primaries?

going by those pew crosstabs...

bernie dominates the age group that votes least in primaries then drops off precipitously among the groups that actually turn out. its pretty striking how bad he does with the 50+ crowd.

warren is doing really well with college educated voters too...who are also more likely to vote in primaries.

shes also killing bernie in the liberal and very liberal demos. if bernie cant count on *those* voters then who can he count on?

plus traditionally...1 of the top 2 candidates at the beginning of the race tends to fall out of the top 2. seeing how durable bidens lead has been so far...and the upward trajectory of warren...it looks like bernie is the odd man out.

i think the most likely outcome right now is that bernie and warren split the 'anti-biden' vote and biden limps in on the strength of residual obama coalition voters and older culturally displaced white mod/cons democrats.

this is just a purely academic guess based on the polling and not enthusiasm, fundraising, campaign quality, ground game, etc.