Though Biden has been the polling/DNC favorite for months - I believe his stock will continue to plummet - to where the real battle will be between Warren & Sanders. Interestingly, Dem Establishment figures have lectured for years on the necessity in producing moderate candidates that appeal to Conservatives/Independents - but what's happening on the ground is self-explanatory: Outside of Biden (who has a half-century of name recognition while riding on the Obama legacy coattails) - the two strongest candidates are Progressives with a capital P: Sanders & Warren.

So let's look at their respective support base.

In the aftermath of the 2016 primary, much of the analysis was focused on the inability of the Sanders campaign to draw from a broad enough swath of the electorate to knock off the Clinton juggernaut machine - and rightfully so.

Fast-forward to today, and many still speak of the Sanders campaign as if it's 2016, persisting with a narrative that he struggles to attract a diverse base - but the data actually shows quite the opposite, particularly in contrast to Warren - whose support is significantly older, more affluent - and decisively whiter. In contrast, Sanders draws his support from a more diverse, younger, and working class group of voters.

A recent Pew poll confirmed: only 49% of Sanders supporters are white, compared with 56% of Biden voters, 59% of Harris voters, and a remarkable 71% of Warren voters. When it comes specifically to black voters, Sanders only trails Biden - and has neutralized Harris at ~10% - while Warren trails significantly behind.

While the "Bernie Bro" myth persists in the minds of many still bitter from the contested 2016 primary - its accuracy has been obliterated by what's actually happening on the ground with Democratic primary voters.

So - given that Sanders is starting to put together a primary voter coalition that reflects the diversity of the democratic electorate - will we start to see the corporate media think-pieces that make the case for Sanders over Warren? Unlikely.

My personal view is that both Sanders and Warren are excellent candidates to thwart Trump and I'd be happy with either one emerging. That said, it's very interesting to see many analysts (including here on OKP) push Warren despite her affluent, older, whiter (and often more male) support - when they were criticizing Sanders at every opportunity in 2016 for not producing a diverse enough base.




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