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Forum nameGeneral Discussion
Topic subjectNo I'm challenging the argument because it is weak.
Topic URLhttp://board.okayplayer.com/okp.php?az=show_topic&forum=4&topic_id=13342507&mesg_id=13342898
13342898, No I'm challenging the argument because it is weak.
Posted by Lurkmode, Tue Aug-13-19 02:26 AM

>>
>>He presented himself as all things, to all people, all the
>>time. It's a measured poll like the Bradley effect and the
>>Wilder effect.
>
>
>So I take it you're just denying that it's possible to measure
>voter sentiment. If that's the case then there isn't much more
>to be said.
>

No anything is possible, so I am not denying anything but I will question it.

>And for the record, pollsters know about the Bradley effect,
>and it's perfectly straightforward to adjust for it. That
>adjustment, these days, is usually to not make an adjustment,
>because recent data comparing polling to electoral returns has
>been statistically consistent with there being no "Bradley
>effect" for Trump. That is, the data shows that on average
>people who supported Trump were perfectly willing to admit it
>to pollsters.
>

Washington Post had an article showing data where Democrats were not in hurry to tell pollsters they approve of Trump. So everyone is not willing to admit it.


>>
>>Yeah all about the pivot to the middle after the primary,
>the
>>media and pundits push it hard but someone looking for a
>>moderate would not vote for Trump.
>
>Well, they did, in 2016.
>

No they didn't, they voted for Trump.


>>
>>I'm talking about an NBC reporter who said Trump's
>>teleprompter reading after the mass shooting was a pivot and
>
>Oh, so some dude on TV made some trite and speculative comment
>that I never made, and you're projecting it onto me because I
>said some completely different thing that you didn't like.
>Okay then.
>


No it was some female on CBS, I didn't mean NBC. Anyway she did the same thing with Trump that you are doing, grade Trump on a curve. Which is what the media is doing. It has nothing to do with what I like or dislike, you are reinforcing a false narrative.

https://twitter.com/NorahODonnell/status/1158384268671881216

https://www.mediamatters.org/donald-trump/problem-medias-trump-pivoting-narrative

>>one of Trumps speech that he gave in the past, was called a
>>pivot. You the media and pundits are doing the same thing
>by
>>saying people voted for him because they saw him as less
>>partisan or moderate.
>
>So by telling the truth about one aspect of how he won in 2016
>I'm also making unrelated comments on how he's supposedly
>running in 2020?

One aspect is not enough to say voters see him as moderate or less partisan.

>I will say this: he will most definitely try to claim that
>he's the candidate less beholden to his party's base in 2020
>(the definition of "moderate" that I've been using here). And
>if people believe him, he will gain some amount of advantage
>for it.
>

Yeah he will lie again and people will lie when asked why did they vote for him.


>You seem to be getting hung up on the word "moderate," which
>as I've noted in other posts here, can mean a few different
>things. The people who voted for him did NOT do so because
>they thought he wasn't an asshole, a liar, a racist, a rapist,
>and so many other things that he so plainly was in 2016. A lot
>of his voters admitted all that and liked it --- those are the
>voters we'll never pull away --- but a lot of his voters
>admitted all that and simply didn't care. The question of
>whether he is beholden to his party's base is separate from
>the question of whether he is personally an asshole, liar,
>racist, rapist. But the former question is the one that more
>voters decided they cared about.
>

I'm not hung up on anything I used less partisan too. LOL you can't separate what he is from the positions he takes. His base doesn't care about everything you listed so why would they care if he was moderate, less partisan or wether he is beholden. He can shoot someone on 5th avenue but he better not be beholden to the party base because that's a deal breaker.

>
>>>If you think I'm talking about Trump's strategy in 2020,
>>then
>>>I don't think you're paying attention.
>>>
>>
>>You are not paying attention if you think voters who want a
>>moderate voted for Trump based on that, because they
>couldn't
>>see his bs for what it is. They just tell that lie.
>>
>>Nobody is voting for Trump because he tells it like it is,
>he
>>is less partisan, he is an outsider all of that is a lie.
>Here
>>are the facts.
>>
>>https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/full-list-donald-trump-s-rapidly-changing-policy-positions-n547801
>
>
>LOL, so you think voters are paying attention to every shift
>of policy position? You have a surprisingly high opinion of
>the American voter's information capacity.
>

I'm not the one who is saying voters picked Trump because he was less partisan, moderate. You are giving voters too much credit. It's not just policy positions everything he said and did was a lie and the voters know it, that's why I say, I don't believe any of those answers they give to pollsters, when they are asked why they voted for Trump.

>Again, the issue is whether voters thought he had a dogmatic
>attachment to his party's unpopular positions. If anything,
>his all-over-the-place statements actually HELPED the
>narrative that he had flexible views.
>

LOL they care about positions that you just said they are not paying attention too when he shifts ? This is exactly what I mean about the pivot/grade on a curve., when you call his lies "all over the place statements" that helped.