Alright folks.

The Trump Administration and the White House are slowly imploding every day (or is it?).

So get your Nostradamus on let's see how we do.

Post your predictions for:

-Midterm Election results
- Impeachment or Not?
- Gun Control
- Anything else you think might happen and around when?

Keep it detailed, folks. Let's see who gets the closest as time goes on.

We might as well have some fun while we wait for either N. Korea or Russia to nuke us.

d

Midterms: Democrats win house. 52-48 republican lead in senate
Impeachment: Maybe. But it will be a show trial.
Gun control: Nothing worth talking about will happen

things are going to get worse for him and his criminal family. Kushner will get indicted next, if he doesn't snitch he will spend many, many years in jail. I am going to throw a party when Trump goes down.

he stays a full 4 years, then loses in 2020
dems win house, but lose a senate seat
one more conservative supreme court justice is appointed
nothing of note gets passed in 2019-2020

Mueller is working together with Schneiderman.

>Mueller is working together with Schneiderman.

Yuuuuuup

kennedy was supposed to retire last year but stayed on for 2 terms (so far) most likely because he is concerned about who trump would appoint.

and all indications are that the court doesnt like gorsuch too much. you got john roberts openly mocking some of his opinions.

it seems like the 'integrity' of court is outweighing the desire to be replaced by another conservative justice right now.

i think(pray) everyone is staying put til at least 2021.

subpoenas on top of subpoenas. real oversight and investigations into the rampant corruption. dems controlling legislation/budget from a majority position.

he will completely collapse just by simply being held accountable. the only thing keeping him barely afloat now is the kid glove treatment from a repub congress and a slow glide from the obama economy (which he is working to fuck up now).

i havent even factored in any outcome from the mueller investigation.

gun laws won't change much.

there will be a mass shooter that has close ties with the MAGA movement

Basically will resign/drop out of the 2020 run but complete his first term.

>Post your predictions for:
>
>-Midterm Election results
This is going to be big for democrats. Texas will open eyes.

>- Impeachment or Not?
I don't know about technicalities. Basically there will be enough for serious charges but he will bow out and avoid any legal consequences.

>- Gun Control
We will get some moderate gun control. 21 minimum age for any type of gun/rifle. Improved background checks. Maybe mental health research. Another mass shooting will happen after the controls are in place. TBD determined if the reaction is "See gun control was useless" or "We need to go further!"

>- Anything else you think might happen and around when?
Russia, NK and China create some official partnership anti-USA. Russia publicly starts attacking the credibility of Trump and even more USA as a whole.

Democratic president for 2020
Independent/Third party candidate gets over 12% vote

If the economy slides, he can blame the dems (even if it happens before the midterm).

Like Reeq said above they're gonna subpoena the shit out of him. his tax returns, business dealings, etc...

His firewalls against Mueller will continue to collapse

He barely has any friends even in his own whitehouse, especially now with Hope jumping ship. These vacancies will continue to be filled with even worse people. People with no experience or integrity that can be compromised. I expect The Mooch to be back soon.

He'll step down in a way where he can say he had everything running amazingly until Dems, the deep state, the FBI came in and fucked it all up. 40% of the country will agree. He'll continue to be the powerful voice on the right until he keels over into his KFC bucket (so about 2 years)

pure, fucking irresponsible, boot licking, comedy gold.

He's the Mooch... and when the Mooch is in the room, all eyes are on The Mooch, and not The Donald

it's a problem

>>He's one of the saner people in Trump's orbit tbh

years upon years of headache inducing headlines

gov becomes more and more crippled

the base becomes disillusioned

no new big wars, more school shootings, more mass shootings, more incidents of white supremacy

no forward progress


and in the end we will all say "well, THAT was awkward" while watching the next president get sworn in

is more likely.

Optimistic:

Dems take the house by a small amount; not an enormous wave, but enough to continue momentum into 2020. Investigations into Trump gain more steam, illegalities become harder for rank and file Republicans to deny (yeah, it's kind of a daydream). Trump decides it isn't fun anymore, announces he won't run for reelection, Pence loses by a landslide in 2020, while Democrats grow in house and take the Senate by a comfortable margin. Then the rebuilding begins. Republicans will be too demoralized to put up much of a fight in response for a few years (yeah, kind of a daydream). It's like 2008-2010 all over again, but we hopefully keep the momentum going from there (yeah...)

Pessimistic:

Dems take the house by a comfortable margin in 2018. But then Trump can more convincingly play the victim, which is his favorite tactic, so his popularity starts rising. House Democrats, pushed by pseudo-progressives who haven't thought things through, conjure up a legally thin impeachment case and send it to the Senate where it's DOA. They hold a trial that gets ugly, super-partisan, and doesn't come anywhere near 60 votes. It only serves to make Democrats look petty (much like the Clinton impeachment trial did for Republicans). Trump turns up the victimhood game even further, popularity skyrockets to like 55% and he sails to reelection. Democrats lose the house again, Democrats blame each other for what went wrong, can't make a plan to respond in (sigh) 2022, GOP rule for the foreseeable future.

There is no upside to it and a whole lotta downside. Trump is at his best when he can blame others for things.
Flimsy impeachment proceedings give him the exact cover he needs

Unless they have him (specifically him) involved in something nefarious whose wrongness can be easily explained to every grandma in the country, they should drop it and wait out the next year and a half.

>Pessimistic:
>
>Dems take the house by a comfortable margin in 2018. But then
>Trump can more convincingly play the victim, which is his
>favorite tactic, so his popularity starts rising. House
>Democrats, pushed by pseudo-progressives who haven't thought
>things through, conjure up a legally thin impeachment case and
>send it to the Senate where it's DOA. They hold a trial that
>gets ugly, super-partisan, and doesn't come anywhere near 60
>votes. It only serves to make Democrats look petty (much like
>the Clinton impeachment trial did for Republicans). Trump
>turns up the victimhood game even further, popularity
>skyrockets to like 55% and he sails to reelection. Democrats
>lose the house again, Democrats blame each other for what went
>wrong, can't make a plan to respond in (sigh) 2022, GOP rule
>for the foreseeable future.
>

He's a hedge-fund guy, he should know some strategy and game theory.

I respect his convictions. I think he honestly wants Trump out of office as soon as possible. But he's so full of himself (the other side of being a hedge-fund guy, I guess) that he's convinced he has to be the one to do it. But this isn't the way it can happen, Tom.

conservative rich people buy judges, media outlets, politicians and think tanks and push a unified agenda. they successfully use politics to combat their cultural/social losses.

liberal rich people give their money to charity and activists and support ad campaigns and non governmental initiatives that appeal to our better senses but are still at the mercy of our political leadership.

if any of these liberal/progressive tech billionaires were even half as politically cynical as the koch bros then we would be a humanistic egalitarian technocratic society at the global forefront of innovation and prosperity.

But maybe I just like him because I only ever hear him mentioned by conservatives who are afraid of him.

i never see anywhere outside of right wing memes.

on a serious note tho...this impeachment ad campaign of steyer seems like a waste of money. he would be better served using that money to buy off politicians who would then push for impeachment when elected.

He just gave 3.5 millions dollars for voter outreach in Florida

http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/03/07/liberal-billionaire-tom-steyer-targets-florida-millennials-with-3-5-million-voter-outreach/

I don't see it in either of my scenarios.

The moment has passed, once again.

Trump cried for the next 2 years then finds a way to not run in 2020 when he sees its a lost cause.

Worst case scenario

Hilldawg runs again in 2020 and Trump wins again.

With the way its reported he eats, he's hella vulnerable.

I'm also not confident that RGB will survive another 2 years.

We will see his tax returns and other financial info within the next year.

d

>-Midterm Election results

Dems squeaks out a win after self sabotage
.
>- Impeachment or Not?

Dems put off impeachment to protect Trump and the Republicans. Dems give away everything Republicans ask for and beg them for approval.

>- Gun Control

Gun control disappears as the Dems support Republicans push to outlaw taking on the NRA

>- Anything else you think might happen and around when?
>

Dems lose 2020 when they run a safe Reupublican so that they don't upset Trump and his base.

Dems play it safe and take no chances while Republican triple down on crazy over and over.

If he woulda fired comey in may and mueller in june, everybody who had "less than 1 year" in the trump pool woulda won

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/370817-trump-ordered-mueller-fired-last-year-but-was-stopped-by-wh-counsel


But yea
-dems will win enough seats to (further) stalemate the gop
-60/40 chance mueller offers a "trump actions were careless/reckless but not criminal/nothing to charge him with" pass like Hillary got. (unless he is on the peepee tape discussing sanctions with Putin, embezzling money, or something else blatant)
-same for don jr
-still charges kushner, which pushes babyhands to fire sessions for not "protecting him"

Sessions don't give a what about russia, as long as he can keep knocking black and brown ppl in the head
-more high level/inner circle ppl step down
-if mueller recommends charges, it will end up at the supreme court trying to decide what are the limits of executive privilege
-1 domestic assassination attempt. If the collusion case gets bad, add 1 more assassination attempt by putin
-gets primaried in 2020 while still under investigations

Harras the shit out him but I hope they don't go as far as impeachment.

I think thats the smart play.

I think the realistic play is they try to impeach and overreach and fuck things up for 2020.


**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

But based off how many seats are in play for the House and the Senate, getting a super majority in either is looking doubtful. They would have to get some Republicans, in order to do it. But Mueller is a smart guy. I believe he is setting the trial for Gates right before the Mid-term election.

The fact that even some people here are comparing this to Clinton's impeachment is beyond absurd. This shit is waaaay worse than Watergate.

I believe he is setting the
>trial for Gates right before the Mid-term election.
>

You mean setting the trial for Manafort.

Gates was the one who just plead guilty. He was scheduled to be in court around the same time as Manafort.

i have to say im a bit surprised and i am hoping something comes of it. if it does we have to give them credit.

i dont see how they went from my "nuke is bigger" contests to "okay we will chill on the nukes while we talk" though.

negotiators could be using the trump is a mad-man thing as a negotiating tool, but if things improve, it will be despite him, and not because of him. nobody wants trump in the room on this shit.

i could see the adults in the room working out a tenuous scale back deal, and trump blowing it all up (no pun) with some twitter end zone spike asking rocket man how his ass tastes.

if that happens then we are going to war with north korea. doesnt even matter what takes place diplomatically. we will prolly be at war with iran too.

people are celebrating all of the departures from the white house because it makes trump look weak and foolish. but people like cohn and mcmaster are undoubtedly stabilizing forces in terms of preventing trump from going completely nihilistic.

that's the troubling thing about these departures. It's not like there's a big pool of qualified people who want to work for this president. We're left the incompetent and the insane

im not convinced the trump is a mad man angle really worked, that is about all he really can take credit for. i wouldnt be surprised if thats how it gets spun though. that his approach is what convinced them to talk.

all of our top diplomatic staff that deals with the koreas and east asia is gone. we sent the presidents daughter to brief south korea on our north korean strategy.

if anything actually happens...it will be because of south korea, the eu, and china doing the heavy lifting. trump will of course take credit for it (south koreans will indulge him to curry favor).

The guy who everyone expected to do it pulled out just a few days ago specifically because of Trump's belligerence.

what could possibly go wrong?

https://twitter.com/carlzimmer/status/970787964790984704

Word today is that he's sending Jared to Mexico to try to defuse tensions over the tariffs (and about a thousand other things).

As we all know by now, that Jared is a goddamn wunderkind!

>if anything actually happens...it will be because of south
>korea, the eu, and china doing the heavy lifting. trump will
>of course take credit for it (south koreans will indulge him
>to curry favor).

S Korea inviting N Korea to the olympics was done on their own right? it caught everyone off guard. is it possible that they cut the US out of any deal if we dont act right? is the US really needed?

I wonder if trump actually pushes NK to chill out because he's so fucked up they don't want to do their usual threatening act.


www.engadgethd.com - the other stuff i'm looking at

there was a time when things were escalating and a reasonable president would had approached it with caution to diffuse things. instead trump just raised the ante.

things did seem to go quiet all of a sudden. could be that N Korea recognized they had to back off or it could be that other countries intervened in the background.

i think a couple days ago there was news that N Korea was going to start ramping up plutonium production or something then the next day they are willing to talk and cease.

*shrug*

The North has always been willing to talk. Diplomatic relations has been their leading goal all along. The only reason there wasn't any discussion before was because nobody would talk to them.

Now the South is talking to them (we're still not). The reason the South is talking to them is because they now know the US won't protect them from the North. The reason we won't protect them is not because of Trump (say what you will about the man, he's not afraid to threaten nuclear war). The reason the South knows we won't protect them is because the North can now attack us. So it would take a special kind of stupidity (which Trump may or may not have, but no other president would) for the US to intervene.

This would all be rolling along about the same way under any president.

i understand that this isnt the first time they were willing to talk and N Korea may not have any real intentions to change anything. there was nothing this administration did, on purpose or not, to push N Korea into this position?

is it really more S Korea, China and other countries that have moved this along and if anything the administration has hindered things?

sounds reasonable, Trump will get credit though.

And Trump just happens to be the guy in office.

I agree he'd get some credit in the unlikely event that the North denuclearizes. Kinda like how Reagan gets credit in the public consciousness for ending the cold war. But I think in both cases the events just happened when they happened.

I don't really know anything about international relations, of course, but this is the impression that I've gotten.

We have no idea how he's communicating this meeting to his people

Nothing good will come of this because they don't need our approval. Fighting with us fits his narrative

d

It will happen.

Dems will steamroll the midterm elections, allowing them to put the clamps on Trump's legislative agenda (whatever that is).

Mueller's investigation will finally catch its key breaks in the start of the fall, paving the way for Trump to get fully exposed before the elections.

Trump resigns in 2019 to avoid impeachment, all the while claiming there was a conspiracy to destroy his presidency....even going so far as to suggest that his supporters 'could' violently protest his ouster.

Following the resignation, two Supreme Court justices die. Leaving vacancies for the Dems to fill.

A major deal is proposed in 2019 to keep student loan companies from going under after one tanks. It'll essentially be a minor student loan bailout.


Going forward....

Kim Jong-Un denuclearizes on the condition that he cannot be deposed and that the US does not use or encourage sanctions against them. South Korea helps so they can get the US to reduce their forces within the country.

America rejoins Paris Accords in 2021.


Tesla reveals a compact car that's $20K before the tax rebate.

First AI programmed by another AI.

The GOAT Smash Bros. game is the next one.

Biggest film of 2020 is not by Marvel but still by Disney....Mulan. Marvel announces a Thunderbolts movie as well as Black Panther 2, and either an X-Men or a Fantastic Four movie.

Speaking of Marvel, Steve Rogers dies....so does Stan Lee.

Black director wins Best Director in 2021.

Michael Jackson biopic will be named 'King of Pop'....will be released before 2022.

Deontay Wilder 43-1

Either Knicks or the Lakers get either Lebron or Klay Thompson(?!)

Serena wins Wimbledon, loses French and US Open.....then Calendar Slams....then retires.



It will happen.
---------------------------------------


---------------------------------------

He somehow passes away midway through and Hillary becomes president

"Get ready....for your blessing....."

Them term limits are gone!

it wouldnt be the most surprising outcome

i still say his health would prevent that though. he may very well be president for life and his presidency end in 2018.

...That isn't even in the top 5 interesting stories of the day

What a time

Trump's approval rating among Republicans is at 80 something percent. That they still stand by this dumpster fire speaks volumes. Like how would democrats even reach out to these people?