blue collar working class white guy brand identity.
strong bipartisan appeal among moderates.
close association with popular previous dem president.
nostalgia bait for boomers and silents.

and a black woman.

book it.

If he wasn't grieving the death of his son, he would have run and won the presidency. He's got that firebrand approach built for sparring with Trumps style in a debate.

Crazy Joe is one of the few dems that has the resume, integrity, and fighter instinct that is needed to defeat trump and win votes on both sides.

>If he wasn't grieving the death of his son, he would have run
>and won the presidency.

Like, you think Joe Budden, after his long career and the outgoing VEEP of a very popular administration, didn't want to be president?


He didn't run because it was Hilary's turn, dog. Cmon.

You really think Biden, Booker,etc didn't want to be president in 2016?? How convenient for Hilary.


And, I think Biden would have won. Especially with the right VEEP pick.


As far as the OP goes, I'll say it again and again, we shouldn't be thinking about 2020 until 2018 has come and gone. That's one of the problems with Dems- they only ponder sh!t every four years.

http://lh6.ggpht.com/ivan1087/SK-ocsz0FZI/AAAAAAAADFU/KKvZQXrHayc/s1600/barack_obama_joe_budden_biden.jpg

No way he leaves potential votes in the table.

>As far as the OP goes, I'll say it again and again, we
>shouldn't be thinking about 2020 until 2018 has come and gone.
> That's one of the problems with Dems- they only ponder sh!t
>every four years.

My point is this is like the 3rd thread this year about
fantasy candidates in 2020.

On one hand I get it’s not that serious. On the other hand, I worry
folks in the party, casual voters,etc aren’t focused enough on 2018-
not only is that first, but I’d argue it might be more important.

And yeah, I get nervous the Dems don’t learn from
mistakes. Getting defensive about them definitely doesn’t
help.

2016 showed they didn’t learn from 2004, etc.

we tend to only come out every 4 years and expect things to change. then we get manhandled in off-year, special, and midterm elections.

but after everything ive seen so far...ive got a lot of optimism for 2018. i see tons of people who never even really cared about politics talking about the midterms now.

dem candidates are getting campaign volunteers and raising money like crazy. last midterms...44 dem candidates passed the $100k mark. this cycle...144 dems passed that mark (and most of them by large margins).

dem/activist energy on the ground is crazy right now. elections across the country on nov 7 were a testament to that. dems running and winning at every level of government even in historically red areas.

in the past...a flawed candidate, the donna brazile situation, and shitty weather on election day would have depressed dem turnout in an off-year va election. but dems stayed focused and went out and voted like republicans lol. i think we are finally showing party discipline and maturing across the board as a group.

I honestly think Trump tapped into a vein of white supremacy that was too deep to beat.

I think there would have been a lot less “never Biden”
votes on the left AND in the middle.

The “not Hilary” sentiment, no matter how misguided,
had an impact no doubt.

Obama’s high approval numbers transfer much better
to his VEEP than to...I’ll just say Hil.

just by being man (attacks clearly dont stick like they do to women).

and biden would no doubt have won imo.

mostly because i believe hillary would have won without russian/wikileaks disinfo, comey, and bernie carrying his vendetta all the way up to the convention (treats biden noticeably different).

biden wouldve cleared those slim margins in the rust belt (except ohio) just based on the better margins he posts with white/older voters.

he might have carried fl, nc, and az too because of those same groups.

trump didnt really unlock any hidden white wave of votes like a lot of people believe. he actually got less of the voter share than mitt romney (even got less raw total votes than romney in wi too).

there's a reason Joe's campaigns never went very far before. Maybe being a gaffe machine isn't a problem in the age of Trump (in fact, maybe it'd make him compare favorably -- like he's an everyman who doesn't make your skin crawl), but I'm not sure I wanna test it.

The bigger concern is, he'll be 77 by election day. If he won, and was reelected, he'd be 85 by the end of his second term. He doesn't seem that old when you see him nowadays, but give him a few years and I fear it might become a liability.

Connections to Obama will be powerful currency in 2020, though, I predict. Sadly, I can't really think of many people who have those connections other than Hillary and Biden. Dick Durbin doesn't sound promising. Susan Rice? Eric Holder? They seem far-feched. I dunno.

I think it'll be a clean-slate year. Someone young, vital, new. Like an Obama of the 2020s. Kamala still seems like the obvious choice for top of the ticket.

Julian Castro will be too inexperienced
Ash Carter and Jeh Johnson are too unknown
Sally Jewell would have been an interesting one, but alas was born in London
Ken Salazar would be like nominating Gephardt

but side-by-side with trump (with a political record to run against now)...and given who we specifically need to target in the rust belt...i cant think of a better candidate.

age would normally be a factor as well. but hearing him in comparison...i dont think anyone would even care. he could die after getting sworn in. we just need him to win the election then the vp can take over lol.

i think the mood of voters will be more of a desire for a return to normalcy than a desire to vault ahead into the future. thats a favorable landscape for uncle joe. hes a physical reminder of 'what was'.

as far as kamala...i dont think a black woman...and cali liberal...can win at the top of the ticket in this environment. but vp would be a great chance to get her primed for a run in the future.

It can't be someone who already has an extremely unfavorable reputation with a large subset of the population. Especially one where you can make their recent history look shady.

I wasn't trying to say they were possibilities. Just examples of the fact that there aren't any plausible candidates in the Obama sphere other than Biden and Clinton.

You called it!

____________

Dallas Cavericks LETS GO!!

thats their talking point.

every chance they get.

painted her as a slave to wall street and big pharma.
the usual.

she might be their 3rd favorite target under clinton and booker.

i hope kamala harris is on the ticket in 2020 though, ideally as pres

Joe has whipped it out unsolicited at some point in his life.


>i hope kamala harris is on the ticket in 2020 though, ideally
>as pres


**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

(with young girls)

and there will definitely be accusations about biden groping somebody

hopefully it tanks him in the primaries if he does decide to run

Damn this is a horrible idea.

http://tinyurl.com/y8t9p5k7

that would've made it easier to prosecute perps of police brutality &
the white guy that effectively called Anita Hill a liar by voting to confirm SCJ Thomas??...Absolutely tf not!

= L

When Trump gets re-elected over that ticket don't cry about it in 2021 and blame Bernie Bros

SMH...you've learned nothing.

Most momentum may be behind Gabbard tho.

personal anti-abortion *and* anti-lgbtq views. pro-assad (went behind dems back to meet with him...and spread his propaganda when she returned), refused to criticize trump (even met with him immediately after inauguration to get a job in his administration), not supporting an assault weapons ban, trashed the iran deal, attacking obama for not saying 'radical islamic terror' (sound familiar?), introduced an anti-muslim visa waiver elimination bill, etc.

she is basically a conservative masquerading as a progressive (and a lot of progressives are gullible enough to fall for shit like that...as we saw during the election with cassandra fairbanks). she supported bernie and progressives automatically made her their queen without doing any background checks on where she actually stands on many issues.

the alt right loves her. bannon is a fan.

i mean...any time you get a public endorsement from david duke...
https://twitter.com/DrDavidDuke/status/801705517727023104

her approval rating is underwater with her own state party because of the stunts she pulled. she would never make it out of a national dem primary.

Just saying they are lining her up for the spot, for reasons you stated and others.

I'm done with the Themoceatic party tho.

She's not afraid to be a Democrat, but is absolved of all of their stink. Supported Bernie, military experience, supports single payer and free college, POC woman.

She checks off a lot of boxes, BUT she also wants campaign finance reform, so Dems will probably sabotage her, but maybe she bucks and goes indie.

in all them red ass states in da electoral map


his vp aint winnin them folks over. people dont want da same old same old.


plus he old as shit


i mean Bidens cool, funny, all dat

but nah

i say this wit love. cuz yall gon fuck around and get a mfucka re-elected

if you can name another possible dem candidate more popular than those two then i would like hear it.

saying a national party dem is unpopular in red states is like saying pork is unpopular at a mosque. not sure what point you were trying to make there.

gonna beat trump?

my point is its more americans then yall think that dont fuck wit Obama n dem like that

aint none of them mfuckas finna vote for HIS VP

some state polls were off. and so were exit polls (which is extremely suspicious since they basically just ask you who you just voted for).

either way...you still havent suggested any other candidates.

dems win a few state seats and suddenly 2020 a wrap

we aint got it like that yet

before we rank the recruiting classes lol.

you a trip.

Because if the media start buzzin too much bout her?

Bannon and his fuckin altrite bot-media-donor army would move so fuckin fast

to do everything in they power to destroy that woman in da eyes of america


and she da only sista i can think of that got a shot currently

so nah

back off

let Kamala slow-cook on that shit

she'll let us know lol

im done.

let da shit happen organically, damn.


lotta unknowns comin out da woodwork.


could be one of them, who knows


Dems gotta stop reaching back for they old shit. every. damn. time. its bad for da party


like Feinstein, runnin for reelection at damn near 90!!

da fuk kinda bullshit?!


nah. I like Biden. But nah. Dems need a refresh.

its ok to just give your opinion on possible candidates nshit. you wont face any legal repercussions.

the world country has since known she's a real threat to the fascist right's agenda. if you haven't watched it, do so.

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Who+is+current+Attorney+General+in+the+United+States

As if.

>
>
>http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Who+is+current+Attorney+General+in+the+United+States

Not Sanders and not Biden.

Nope.

I'd do it if it came to that in the general and I dunno who's in the primary. But the thought won't have me sleeping outside a polling place to be first to cast a vote for an old white guy. Again.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/dear-lord-would-joe-biden-be-a-terrible-candidate-for-these-times

they basically just bash anyone who aint bernie so if that person loses then they can complain about how bad the dem party is and how that person woulda won if they were more like bernie.

Giving him all that scrutiny just because he is a man........who is trying to be President "hypothetically".

But yeah, less attack the left.

.

But then he remembered some random position the guy had 20 years ago that he didn't like.

Simple minded motherfuckers in here still trying to find the right personality instead of running on policies.

Nigga, go away.

Meanwhile your choice has been a grabby perv for two decades.

Chill, regular.

Tons of alternatives to be had and many are being discussed here. What is this tried-nothing-all-out-of-ideas attitude?

Sanders could have won in 2016, let alone 2020. Warren is a little more centrist and viable, no backlash like with Hillary and the Clinton name/history. You've got plenty of senators and governors on the left with political capital. In terms of the presidency, it was the GOP that was desperate and had to reach. The Dems have plenty of electable people, especially given the low popularity of Trump. Why are you caping for Biden? This dude is as centrist as they come, and he's also old AF.

I mean, if it's gotta be a white man, he seems like the guy who'd be most able to unite rank and file Democrats with the Sanders supporters, and also make a convincing progressive case in a general election.

Is it just his silly name, or is there anything else?

just has a lower profile than others so he isnt brought up much.
thanks for bringing him up lol.

I read somewhere he's getting targeted pretty hard as GOP thinks his seat is flippable. If he wins, I bet chatter will start up because he's a pretty good candidate. If he loses, then there's not really a way for him to remain a name in 2020.

And obviously, how he defines himself in that race is going to matter a lot too. I was a bit disappointed to see him join up with Murphy on the happy clappy "we're reaching across the aisle to improve the ACA" thing. If it works, maybe that'll be gold for him and I'll be wrong. But it seems like another try at the classic Democrat mistake of thinking the GOP is capable of acting in good faith. If they treat everything to the left of Reagan as creeping red menace - then him and Murphy are just bargaining against themselves.

>I was a bit disappointed to see him join up
>with Murphy on the happy clappy "we're reaching across the
>aisle to improve the ACA" thing. If it works, maybe that'll be
>gold for him and I'll be wrong. But it seems like another try
>at the classic Democrat mistake of thinking the GOP is capable
>of acting in good faith.

its a political calculation too.

ralph northam made an ad where he said he was willing to work with trump when it benefited virginia. 'the resistance' got pissed, said he was demoralizing his own base, and said it would cost him the election. he went on to win by almost 10pts partly due to that ad. undecideds and independents started breaking towards him in polls after that. center right and center left moderates still wanna see bipartisanship.

doug jones in alabama is pulling some republican support (particularly women) by running on a platform of bipartisanship ("i can work with republicans better than roy moore can work with anyone").

some people dont realize that the majority of voters arent progressive activists. the majority of the democratic party isnt even progressive activists lol.

makes the hyper-lefts more influential than they are

yes...it's getting them a seat at the table...

but it's nowhere near big enough for Dems to full on pander to them

placate at best

but they obviously thought they had that blue wall wrapped up.

im not sure what value tim kaine brought to the ticket tho lol.

for hillary was pres lol

>im not sure what value tim kaine brought to the ticket tho
>lol.

yeah, goose egg. didn't hurt. didn't help

a.) He's convincingly religious, and could hopefully pull some moderates or Republicans who were disgusted by Trump but afraid of voting for a closet atheist.

b.) He speaks good Spanish -- a crass political point, but good for juicing Hispanic turnout particularly against Trump, and developing long-term party loyalty.

No idea if either of these points manifested in the race, but they seem to constitute a reasonable argument.

For the record, I agree that Sherrod would have been a better choice, particularly in hindsight.

But whatever they may say, voters love to be patronized. Case in point: President Trump.

One mistake Trump never made: overestimating the maturity of the American public.

>a.) He's convincingly religious, and could hopefully pull
>some moderates or Republicans who were disgusted by Trump but
>afraid of voting for a closet atheist.

clinton made a lot of gains in moderate romney districts. maybe kaine helped there.

>b.) He speaks good Spanish -- a crass political point, but
>good for juicing Hispanic turnout particularly against Trump,
>and developing long-term party loyalty.

this shit did come off patronizing like mynoriti said. but i could see why they went that route.

I don't know much about him other than he's a brother

if biden wasnt in the race and patrick entered then he would be the candidate that obama would def endorse.

outside of that...i dont know much about him either lol.

I think he is an OK candidate but I am leery of retreads and also his age. They are not going to run Sanders or anyone like him but how about someone at least a bit left of center? Also the Dems have had success over time with fresh faces. Governors who didn't do a whole lot on the national stage (Clinton, Carter), young senators (Kennedy, Obama). They haven't had much success straying from that, have they?

But I agree with the poster who says we don't realize how many people DON"T like the Obama era. There are more people out there than we want to admit.

I don't think any black candidate will win in 2020. It would mean a big shift in our current climate. Black people are seen as militant and reactionary. I don't know any black politician that is a healer.

As far as a woman candidate, I think a female VP would work with a strong,youthful and equally as rich candidate as Trump.

Trump has a lot more support than we'd like to believe.

I don't like Van Jones at all. But many people do. I see him taking a shot at some point. Maybe 2024.

Cuban, Zuckerberg, etc..

Plus Cuban's an Ayn Rand groupie. Fuck that guy

The game has changed. American politics are a rich man's playground. Will be that way for at least the next 10-20 years.

The hope is that we can identify rich men who care about the poor man and will keep us in mind when making policy.

I think many of us are out of touch with how America works now. Money, influence (not necessarily power) and exclusivity.

Keep "those" people out. Keep ourselves in. The wall is a metaphor.

i'm anti the terrible idea that another rich celebrity outsider is going to beat trump

this includes dark horses like conor lamb and doug jones.

his primary endorsements have been even more potent.

dudes cosign matters more in more types of areas than barack obama.

he consistently polls at the top of dem candidate lists.

im not sure anyone else quite occupies that space within the obama coalition, the clinton (bill)/reagan white working class, and the clinton (hillary)/romney moderate suburbanites.

dude would easily blow trump out by obama/mccain margins imo.

I'd like Cory Booker to run, but I don't think we gon get away with that.

Gotta be a plant

he's done.

Accurate.

-->

What are your thoughts about Robert O'Rourke?

Here is his speech from Houston

Watch live: Beto O'Rourke campaigns in Houston
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZOkvFpdcdNk

...hoping for a viable third party candidate that actually stands for something substantial and not treating politics like a sporting event...

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/12/joe-biden-kamala-harris-dream-ticket-1317561

iono fam.
this could still happen lol.

her flip floppin ass doin mediocre inna polls so she start publically beggin to be his agespotted ass's veep

i thought abram was his negro of da month?

#ados bout to voltron against some biden-kamala ass ticket


question: why cant her selfish ass stay inna mfuckin senate when dems need da seats crazy?!

im gettin tired of these hollywood ass senators

This state is about as solidly blue when it comes to electing senators. There are now open primaries too, so she’s more likely to face a Democratic challenger than a Republican one. The GOP is pretty much irrelevant in Senate races and state wide offices.

cause dat shit made no sense. LOL

I was having trouble making it through it too.

CBC is a fucking farce.

and cop?

like, shockingly bad, considering the environment we're in:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/17/opinion/kamala-harris-criminal-justice.html
https://reason.com/2018/01/12/kamala-harris-is-not-smart-on-crime (a *conservative* publication)
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/10/how-convincing-is-kamala-harris-leftward-shift

thats enough for me
https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/15/politics/joe-biden-donald-trump-2020-democratic-primary/index.html

like a three year old.

I think he engages the enemies he knows better (like De Blasio), not necessarily who he is scared of.


**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

Cause I think everyone wants her as their VEEP choice.


**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

and you know it.

for the same exact reasons mentioned in the og post.

biden has been much worse than i expected and i dont see him getting better if he goes head to head with trump. im getting flashbacks to 2016. im okay on harris. she wouldnt be my top 3 pick, maybe not 5th for the nomination but i would be okay with her getting it. as a vp? sure.

are worrying me fam.

early on i was gonna keep coming back to this post and bragging to bignick and vex about how teflon joe remains unfazed despite all the negative press coverage.

after seeing him in action...i aint even proud of this shit now lol.

i was reading some polling analysis that said biden is approaching the point where he has a greater than 50% chance of winning the nomination.

i think a large part of whats buoying him is nobody is attacking him from the right. everyone is just tryna out-progressive him and fighting over the same slice of pie. nobody is tryna appeal to older black religious socially conservative types, or older white reagan/clinton dems, or bloomberg/schultz types, etc. there isnt really any disciplined approach in taking down the frontrunner other than attacking him on things that play well to voters who probably werent in his camp anyway.

>i think a large part of whats buoying him is nobody is
>attacking him from the right. everyone is just tryna
>out-progressive him and fighting over the same slice of pie.
>nobody is tryna appeal to older black religious socially
>conservative types, or older white reagan/clinton dems, or
>bloomberg/schultz types, etc. there isnt really any
>disciplined approach in taking down the frontrunner other than
>attacking him on things that play well to voters who probably
>werent in his camp anyway.
>

Who is the next most popular "moderate"? Pete?


I don't like Beto anymore man, but I wish he hadn't flamed out.

it looks like we could be headed for another 2-night debate for the 3rd one.

another thing helping biden might be that we arent seeing all of the top tier candidates square off at the same time...and they are splitting a lot of face time with people who have no shot at even competing.

>I don't like Beto anymore man, but I wish he hadn't flamed
>out.

.

let's hope not lol.
-->

-->

I can rock with this.

Not impossible, but seems like a stretch at the moment

should prolly swap out kamala with stacey abrams but the same principles apply.

Activating Georgia. Most of us down here would love the chance to vote for her again and flip GA

Plus after kamala made such a personal broad swipe against Biden it would seem kind of fake

I think this cycle is a complete wash about being a passing of the gaurds with all 75+ folks running but that would be a huge investment in the future.


**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

Or Texas.

Leave them alone. They are fools gold.

For the millions who voted. 50k Democrats have probably transplanted to Atlanta from the northeast and Midwest since that election. Lol.

Don’t know about Texas but Georgia can definitely be flipped.

Ten years ago. And here we are, so do ur research and become informed! Thank you lol

this cycle (as demonstrated by the historic diversity of the initial field, the poor performance of candidates of color even with their own groups, and the candidates who performed best in the end).

Whoever ends up with the nom (and I realize it will likely be Biden)... if they don't pick a (former) fellow frontunner with a large established base, a well-organized volunteer network ready to turn the fuck out, demonstrated fundraising prowess, and a balance to the nominee's weak areas I strongly believe the Dems will be in bad shape against 45.

These areas are where Biden, in particular, has been extremely weak (vs Bernie). Other than being black (which, again, voters didn't seem to give af about during the primary lol), what would Kamala add to the ticket that Biden doesn't already have? He already has the black vote lol. He was in Congress longer than she's been. Dems are almost guaranteed to win CA in the GE against 45. Name recognition and warm fuzzies may seal the deal in the south but that's a risky strategy to take against 45's literal army of a volunteer network its been reported he's building out at armyfortr*** dot com (his son said in an interview their goal is 2M). Dems need to gain ground in Middle America, rural and suburban communities, to flip the EC.. can Kamala help deliver that??

*Especially* if things aren't finalized until the convention, which only leaves a few months to warm the electorate up to somebody. I really don't want to see any picks out of left field or on some identity BS (eg. Kaine in '16). I think the play is picking somebody who resonated strongly THIS CYCLE and brings a *proven* coalition of volunteers, donors, and enthusiastic supporters with them to hit the ground running in a big way.

There were other frontrunners that fit the characteristics I'm talking about. Very well.

People need to try thinking beyond "race" as the only dimension of diversity. Ideology was obviously a huge touchstone this cycle, but also things like age, gender, geographical representation/appeal, and the makeup of one's coalition across these variables also.

Biden is an ~80yo white man with the black southern vote on lock. And Dems will have the coastal urban areas on lock. But that will not be enough. He's working with *half* the coalition HRC lost to 45 with in '16 (tbf so is Bernie, he just has the other half i.e. youth vote and latinos).

The nominee will need to build out.

I think the narrative for this cycle has been how important and decisive the black vote is.

It's a necessary vote, the lack of it did in Amy, Petey and probably Warren.

And it's not a blind vote, it didn't go Kamala or Booker.

I think Kamala doesn't get him anything but Stacey will get him some youth and progressives.




**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

the youth vote, and the low-income vote (!) in '16 and STILL lost to 45, even with more votes, because he had like 20% more of the white vote and a broader geographic reach (i.e. Middle America https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/da/2016_Presidential_Election_by_County.svg/474px-2016_Presidential_Election_by_County.svg.png )

Of course black votes matter. I really hope what I'm saying isn't misinterpreted to say they don't. But black people also account for only 12.5% of the electorate (https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/01/PSDT_2020electorate-00.png), and are an almost guaranteed vote for Dems already (especially against 45).

Personally? I think a black agenda and a politician that will actually follow through on it is more consequential than representation.. at *this* particular moment in post-Obama politics. But even ignoring that, black voters did not rally around any of the black candidates in this primary and I think that says a lot.

I worry that Dems approach GEs like they do a primary. It's about appealing to "America*..not just a cut of the Dem base imho.

and re:

>
>I think Kamala doesn't get him anything but Stacey will get
>him some youth and progressives.
>
>

Stacy isn't actually that progressive tho, she's more moderate/center-left (which I'm not complaining about, lol). Check out her most recent appearance on the View. She was basically like yeeaa.. I grew up poor, it's not fun, I don't see wealth as a bad thing lol.. markets are cool just regulate them (paraphrasing, but that was the general gist. watch it for her actual wording).
>

Don't tell us. THe question isn't the demos of the people who came out to vote, but rather the demos of people who stayed home.

THis article is my new bible and changes how I see everything.


https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944




**********
"Everyone has a plan until you punch them in the face. Then they don't have a plan anymore." (c) Mike Tyson

"what's a leader if he isn't reluctant"

of supporters/donors/volunteers should be a top consideration. We saw with Bloomberg and Steyer that money alone can't substitute organic grassroots support. But we also saw, given Biden's struggles against other candidates before they dropped out, that name recognition alone is not enough.

45 is very strong in all of these areas, and I just think Biden will need muscle from his VP beyond optics.


>https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944
>

This was an interesting read. I do agree with her assessments that the polling has been trash lol. I personally suspect shitty sampling, but who knows. I guess that's why I place more value on actual data reflecting what's happened... both in the primary and in the last GE the Dems competed against 45 *shrug*

But she also has a compelling argument against leaning too much on representation/identity politics, which is the point I'm doing a sucky job of making (lol), and she even uses the same example I did in a different reply regarding Kaine in '16.

I guess we'll see..

I just don’t see Abrams or Harris getting a new crop of Black voters.

Biden has Obama’s legacy...

I don’t think it matters.

after yesterday why folks would think he needs a black VP...

what?!? a payback for the favor, lol

but I don’t think we will ever get the Obama energy with a VP pick.

It is odd to see people demand a Black VP after seeing how Biden performed without even stepping foot in most southern states.

I doubt Hillary wins if she had a Black VP, people just didn’t like her. Apparently they really like Joe.

Its not going to come down to the Black vote this time. It’s those working class whites. The ones I think will vote for Joe but not for Hillary.

Some people don’t vote... nothing will change that.

Obama was a once in a lifetime thing. Of course we all came out for that one but I think people forget that Hillary was legit crowned by pollsters and everyone else to win.

People stayed home. People also don’t like her.

This time tho? With Trump in office they know this ain’t the time to fuck around.

There's zero evidence that Biden will turn out the Youth Vote in any real way. He got 5% of voters under 30 in California, and just 9% of the 30-to-44s. The state he did the best in with young voters (Virginia) was able to see him only get 26% of under-30s,
Disastrous data highlighting his horrible standing with young voters.

They didn't come out as much as expected for Warren & Sanders - but we think they are going to all of a sudden come out for Joe Biden?
Obama was was a winner in large-part because of his ability to bring out young voters and excite the electorate. Biden may be co-opting the Obama brand -- but he ain't no Barack Obama. Expect depressed turnout.

Hope there's enough of these center-right "moderates" that the party has been catering to for decades. But if history repeats itself, November will be a very bad day for Biden and those that worked tirelessly and collaboratively to crown him the nominee.

-->

what’s the data on how young folks feel about that?

like, if this becomes the Biden narrative, do you think it will get them to vote?

honest question :-)

according to Pew Research:

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/07/31/gen-zers-millennials-and-gen-xers-outvoted-boomers-and-older-generations-in-2016-election/ft_19-05-02_generationsvoteupdate_1/

And HRC still lost. This is why I say that Biden and Bernie are actually working with 2 cuts of Hilary's base... Biden --> Black southern voters and Bernie --> Youth Vote and Latino voters

You can even see it playing out if you look at the current map of primary wins (blue is Biden, green is Bernie)

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/83/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries_results%2C_2020.svg/400px-Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries_results%2C_2020.svg.png

Personally, I think both Bernie and Biden would be competing against 45 with a *weaker* coalition than HRC did, and hers lost.

Which is why I think a VP that could help appeal to the red areas on the Electoral College map (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/da/2016_Presidential_Election_by_County.svg/474px-2016_Presidential_Election_by_County.svg.png) would be a key strategy in trying to defeat this man. If it was me, I mean lol


sorry to butt in btw lol. I'm sure Vex might have a different take

Stayed home in 16 vs 12 and 08 could have easily kept those states out of trumps column

after this election cycle, you're gonna see depressed turnout until this place turns into actual Russia.

lol


I just think Dems should be laser-focused on targeting red zones that could turn blue. A VP that could help with that seems most sensical but *shrug*

Biden also is very weak with Latinx voters - an emerging and pivotal demographic in a general election.

Betting the house on center-right moderates, once again.

Old habits die hard.

-->

Identity politics is not “oh look there’s a Black candidate, I’m Black let me vote for them”

Black ppl are so used to White ppl winning and are under the impression that many White ppl won’t support this or that, and make calculated decisions based on who they think can win (for the most part), older Black people specifically don’t feel like they have the luxury to take on passion projects, as it were.

It seems like Latinos made the same decisions in regards to Castro and women didn’t hand it all over just becuz their was six women in the race. Likewise all of us gays didn’t just say oh there’s a gay guy.

But what a VP pick says is that, u matter, u matter to my coalition, women matter, Black women matter, if he picks Pete, gays matter. It’s like going to Selma, it says u matter, what ur community values matters and that’s what identity politics is.

Clinton picking tim kaine was one of her biggest mistakes, he wasn’t an exciting choice and it didn’t show the POC who had got her the nom that she really valued them.

>But what a VP pick says is that, u matter, u matter to my
>coalition, women matter, Black women matter, if he picks Pete,
>gays matter. It’s like going to Selma, it says u matter,
>what ur community values matters and that’s what identity
>politics is.

This is a really good point. And, tbf, I may be placing disproportionate focus on strategies that seem more statistically sound vs. other consideration. I guess I'm just focused more on wondering what a *winning* strategy looks like for someone like Biden. He does already have the black vote..

>
>Clinton picking tim kaine was one of her biggest mistakes, he
>wasn’t an exciting choice and it didn’t show the POC who
>had got her the nom that she really valued them.

Lol! See now, I agree it was a terrible mistake... but in my eyes not because of perceived slight to the black community (she still won like 90% of the black vote https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election#Voter_demographics), but because one of the reasons her camp stated for picking him was to appeal to white voters... basically from an identity politics/representation angle. My theory is he was a coastal elite type that was never going to help her with those middle america voters, and it also hurt her that she didn't target industrial middle america hard enough during her campaigning. In hindsight, Tom Perez might have even been a smarter pick because he was a very popular Labor Sec (with unions, anyway), civil rights attorney, and organizer in the latino community up to that point and might have been able to help her fight for those white workers that flipped from Dem to 45 in the industrial areas (eg. MI/PA/WI) etc.

They should all the first four states should vote on the same day. And the facts of what happened in 2008 have nothing to do with my opinion.

Y’all are in a frenzy right now lol

and real talk. We didn’t support him until Michelle went on Oprah and we realized he married a real one.

The media plays us with the “Blacks weren’t on board until..”

and the until is always when we actually vote instead of using those ducked up pols that never poll Black people in SC.

Preferably a young-ish woman.


His weakness will be with progressives and young people.

1) Biden names a woman as his running mate.

2) Trump responds by dropping Pence and naming Nikki Haley as his running mate, using botched Coronavirus preparedness as an excuse.

and white women

Black voters get the blame for losses but we are loyal and we are consistent.

Once Obama is on stage with Joe at rally’s it’s a wrap. Way more important than the VP pick this time around.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/da/2016_Presidential_Election_by_County.svg/474px-2016_Presidential_Election_by_County.svg.png


And one only needs to look at all the constituencies HRC had on lock against 45, when she STILL LOST...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election#Voter_demographics

even with more votes, higher turnout among youth voters (https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/07/31/gen-zers-millennials-and-gen-xers-outvoted-boomers-and-older-generations-in-2016-election/ft_19-05-02_generationsvoteupdate_1/) etc.

Dems need to flip some damn Obama-Trump counties. A running mate that can balance Biden's weak areas, bring funding and a well-organized coaliation of supporters and volunteers with them, and demonstrated strength in those communities is the strategy imho; these counties are mostly rural and suburban and in some states dont even have inconquerable margins eg. MI/WI.

but unless Abrams helps us flip GA I can’t really see the benefit of a Black woman on the ticket based on who we are trying to beat.

mentality

or slap a *insert minority* on the ticket I guess.

The consideration should focus on who the Dems are trying to court back imho.

Then, who is resonating with them? Who can provide ample resources and vigor (bc lets face it, Biden is old and probably cant campaign as hard) to help execute the strategy?

I think it's so much deeper than race and gender this time around. 45 aint playing like at all. Dems better not get lazy lol

for this moment, I mean.

There was lots of representation to choose from at the start of this primary, and Dems are even more diverse than the general electorate. And yet, look who ended up in the final stretch lol

Dems need to meet the moment.

And post-Obama, it just seems like representation (in terms of race, gender) has taken a back seat..

props

only if you're pres :)

Of Biden. I just don’t think the visual of two men, especially two White men, would drive hope the idea of united coalition.

garsh

It to be a woman, and think it needs to be, that should really help with keeping the base engaged

Trump is probably the most anti woman president of all time. Let’s drive that point home

shes a cop and she didnt put mnuchin in prison.

for doubting you lol

.

.

:)~

>

I'm sure you knew it all along

damn if march of 19 doesn't feel like 3 years ago tho

Everybody here thought Biden was dead in the water (because he was) - but refer to post #147.

But yea - Reeq gets his props for this one

-->

https://twitter.com/meenaharris/status/1145400072831508481?s=09

.

Like how the hell we ar 200 replies already?!!


Epic prediction tho

You called it. Congrats. Can you promise a victory?

https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/117744076_1191764894535300_2423516188848943840_n.jpg?_nc_cat=101&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=XXHqo6yfScoAX9O9pxY&_nc_ht=scontent-lga3-1.xx&oh=2f7ce292362e531f192bf2ce824127b9&oe=5F5A48C5

Cheers, Reeq

helluva call bro.

Shout to the OG

I've found myself thinking "what would Reeq make of this" multiple times over the past few weeks. No idea who you are outside the boards, but your takes are reliable as hell.

Glad you're a leftie.

Now lemme go back to lurking.

>I've found myself thinking "what would Reeq make of this"
>multiple times over the past few weeks. No idea who you are
>outside the boards, but your takes are reliable as hell.
>
>Glad you're a leftie.
>
>Now lemme go back to lurking.

that she is #2 to an old white man when she was running for president most black folks didn't support her including her so-called "sorors" and everyone was questioning her "blackness"

how many Black people did you poll to get to most? shut the entire fuck up

but whatever.

We won.

Don’t care about all the shit talking in the primaries right now.

people

Has Biden mentioned what Harris' role will be as Vice President? For instance, it was said that Biden was Obama's hatchet man when bills had to get passed in Congress since Biden has much more experience with Senators with his congressional past. I'm curious what Biden will task Harris with in the White House, especially since Biden was a VP for eight years.

I'm hoping he didn't just pick her because she was an attractive person for the Democratic ticket for election purposes.

Pardon my ignorance if this has already been discussed in this post.

She will be in the Senate breaking ties like a MF'er.

He could have picked any of the Democratic Presidential candidates for that role since there isn't anything intrinsically hard to be the deciding Democratic vote in the Senate.

I mean on a day-to-day basis in the White House, what role or roles does he see fit for her as an individual?

Is that what you want to hear???

>Is that what you want to hear???

Not at all, I'm not trying to demean her. I'm looking for an answer to the question I posed, because like I said before, Biden was a VP for eight years, so I would hope he has something in mind for her once the two are in the White House.

"initiative" like Al Gore with Bill Clinton had "initiative"


Clinton didn't have to say "Al Gore will do this SPECIFIC function" - Gore just did whatever seemed worthwhile (whether Gore came up with it or Clinton told him to do a certain thing).


Most people know Harris won't just sit back waiting for Biden's orders. She'll take initiative.

is to handle the current debacle concerning the Mexican border situation. Pretty heft task to undertake.

Should be interesting to see how she handles the task and how hands off Biden will be with her on this matter.

Hint hint.