Where I think we disagree is that Rubio or Kasich also would have beaten O'Malley, stomped Bernie, and probably could have even run a strong race against Obama if he could run for a third term (in fact, they probably could have beaten him too, because if Obama could run again he wouldn't be as popular as he is right now).

The fundamentals of this cycle favor Republicans. The economic recovery has been good, but easy to fault. Health care has gone well on balance by any reasonable standard, but reasonable standards aren't what we're up against. In general, it's not easy for a party to win a third term. In part this is just people's simplistic expectation for a change, but in part it's that when you're running for a third term you have to defend real policies, warts and all, against a complete fantasy of a platform from the other side.

Thankfully, though, the Republicans weren't smart enough to nominate Rubio or Kasich. Thankfully the hardcore base of that party was so isolated from the real world that they thought the general electorate would be just excited as they were by their most extreme firebrand candidate. Thankfully the Democratic party was too smart to do the same.