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Forum nameGeneral Discussion
Topic subjectIt was always gonna be a hard race.
Topic URLhttp://board.okayplayer.com/okp.php?az=show_topic&forum=4&topic_id=13073514&mesg_id=13073822
13073822, It was always gonna be a hard race.
Posted by stravinskian, Mon Sep-26-16 01:02 PM

Don't know if the now-cast has been in flux today. They now have it at 49/51, with the other two models around 55/45 in favor of Clinton. The other aggregators look better for Clinton, but still way too close for comfort.

A bit of recent news is that Alan Lichtman's "Keys to the white house" predictor, which ignores polling and judges on "fundamentals" like incumbency and the economy, is also predicting a Trump win. It's been correct in every race since 1984 (though that's small-number statistics, so you shouldn't take it too seriously).

http://pollyvote.com/en/components/index-models/keys-to-the-white-house/

People forget that Republicans always fall in line. And so-called liberals get complacent when we think everything's good, and we even actively work against our own electoral interests when we fool ourselves into thinking the public is on our side. I am not optimistic.