13002275, Presidential Primary Post 8: If they can make it there...
Posted by stravinskian, Mon Apr-11-16 11:35 AM
Guess we've reached the usual 300-post trigger for a new politics thread.
New York coming up on the 19th. 95 delegates on the Rep side, 291 for the Dems (the Dems have a higher overall number of delegates, so they usually have bigger numbers). FiveThirtyEight's polling average currently has it Clinton 57, Sanders 40, but we've seen these margins thin and even flip. It'll probably be an ugly week. Must win for Sanders, I think they've even promised it. To start turning the pledged delegate race, he needs to win it big. On the other hand, it would be embarrassing for the Clinton campaign if they lost it, even by a small margin, so the media would go wild. We'll see how it goes. Debate this Thursday (April 14).
On the R side, Trump has a huge lead. He's flirting with 50% from what I hear, which might make it possible for him to sweep the delegates, which in turn might make it possible for him to end up with a delegate majority before the convention. Considering how the talk about convention procedures is going, that might be his only chance. The other news is that John Kasich is beating Cruz in NY. A strong second place (and a weaker Trump showing) might help his delegate count, making it more plausible that the convention would land on him as a consensus candidate. (Paul Ryan is clearly lobbying-by-not-lobbying-but-making-campaign-ads-anyway for that spot as well).
The rest of the major races (not sure how many of these we'll get through before needing a new thread):
April 26:
Maryland -- 38 R delegates, winner-take-most; 118 D (proportional, as always)
Pennsylvania -- 71 R WTM; 210 D
Connecticut -- 28 R (proportional); 70 D
Delaware -- 16 R winner-take-all; 31 D
May 3:
Indiana -- 57 R WTM; 92 D
May 10:
Nebraska -- 36 R winner-take-all; (Dem caucus already held)
West Virginia -- 34 R (proportional); 37 D
May 17:
Kentucky -- (Rep caucus already held); 61 D
Oregon -- 28 R; 74 Bernie Bros with gluten-free trail mix
June 7:
California -- 172 R WTM; FIVE HUNDRED AND FORTY SIX D
Other states -- who the hell cares...
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