https://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/08/world/threats-responses-iraqis-us-says-hussein-intensifies-quest-for-bomb-parts.html

U.S. Says Hussein Intensifies Quest for A-Bomb Parts
By MICHAEL R. GORDON and JUDITH MILLER
Published: September 8, 2002

WASHINGTON, Sept. 7 — More than a decade after Saddam Hussein agreed to give up weapons of mass destruction, Iraq has stepped up its quest for nuclear weapons and has embarked on a worldwide hunt for materials to make an atomic bomb, Bush administration officials said today.

In the last 14 months, Iraq has sought to buy thousands of specially designed aluminum tubes, which American officials believe were intended as components of centrifuges to enrich uranium. American officials said several efforts to arrange the shipment of the aluminum tubes were blocked or intercepted but declined to say, citing the sensitivity of the intelligence, where they came from or how they were stopped.

The diameter, thickness and other technical specifications of the aluminum tubes had persuaded American intelligence experts that they were meant for Iraq's nuclear program, officials said, and that the latest attempt to ship the material had taken place in recent months.

The attempted purchases are not the only signs of a renewed Iraqi interest in acquiring nuclear arms. President Hussein has met repeatedly in recent months with Iraq's top nuclear scientists and, according to American intelligence, praised their efforts as part of his campaign against the West.

Iraqi defectors who once worked for the nuclear weapons establishment have told American officials that acquiring nuclear arms is again a top Iraqi priority. American intelligence agencies are also monitoring construction at nuclear sites.

While there is no indication that Iraq is on the verge of deploying a nuclear bomb, Iraq's pursuit of nuclear weapons has been cited by hard-liners in the Bush administration to make the argument that the United States must act now, before Mr. Hussein acquires nuclear arms and thus alters the strategic balance in the oil-rich Persian Gulf. Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain met with President Bush today to reaffirm his nation's support for action against Iraq.

Iraq's nuclear program is not Washington's only concern. An Iraqi defector said Mr. Hussein had also heightened his efforts to develop new types of chemical weapons. An Iraqi opposition leader also gave American officials a paper from Iranian intelligence indicating that Mr. Hussein has authorized regional commanders to use chemical and biological weapons to put down any Shiite Muslim resistance that might occur if the United States attacks.

The paper, which is being analyzed by American officials, was provided by Abdalaziz al-Hakim of the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, an Iran-based group, during his recent visit with other Iraqi opposition leaders in Washington.

Much of the administration's case, however, revolves around Iraq's attempts to develop nuclear weapons and assessments of the pace of the efforts. In the unfolding debate, administration hard-liners argue that possession of nuclear arms would enhance Iraq's sway in the region.

Administration officials also assert that the acquisition of nuclear arms might embolden Mr. Hussein and increase the chances that he might use chemical or biological weapons. The officials contend that Mr. Hussein refrained from using chemical and germ weapons during the 1991 Persian Gulf war because he feared a devastating retaliatory blow from the United States and that he might now conclude that the Americans would not dare strike him if he had nuclear weapons.

"The jewel in the crown is nuclear," a senior administration official said. "The closer he gets to a nuclear capability, the more credible is his threat to use chemical or biological weapons. Nuclear weapons are his hole card."

"The question is not, why now?" the official added, referring to a potential military campaign to oust Mr. Hussein. "The question is why waiting is better. The closer Saddam Hussein gets to a nuclear weapon, the harder he will be to deal with."

On the Brink of War

Hard-liners are alarmed that American intelligence underestimated the pace and scale of Iraq's nuclear program before Baghdad's defeat in the gulf war. Conscious of this lapse in the past, they argue that Washington dare not wait until analysts have found hard evidence that Mr. Hussein has acquired a nuclear weapon. The first sign of a "smoking gun," they argue, may be a mushroom cloud.

Still, even though hard-liners complain that intelligence about Iraq's program is often spotty, they plan to declassify some of it to make their case in coming weeks. The administration briefed members of Congress on Iraq's programs to develop weapons of mass destruction this week, but it is not known to what extent officials talked about the intercepted shipments. Given the special intelligence-sharing relationship with Britain, the information on the attempted purchases Mr. Blair plans to release in a few weeks.

The administration's critics assert that the last decade has shown that Mr. Hussein can be contained through a combination of United Nations sanctions, carefully designed inspections and, if Iraq refused to admit the monitors, targeted air strikes. Iraq, the critics say, remains heavily dependent on external assistance to advance its nuclear program. Washington, the critics say, has time to try its hand at diplomacy and should enlist United Nations backing to force Mr. Hussein to accept inspectors back. Taken in its totality, the critics insist that the intelligence suggests there is no rush to take military action.