Maybe I'm reading the wrong (too optimistic) analyses, but it looks like Russia is fucking up on the logistics side (pushing in hard without setting up solid supply lines) and underestimated Ukrainian morale.

Lots of reports of Russian soldiers bein baffled they met any resistance at all, instead of being hailed as liberators.

Big Russian transport planes being shot down, failing to hold on to strategic positions such as airfields, lots of casualties.

China keeping its distance. Kazakhstan refusing to offer military support (despite having a Putin-backed regime).

Crackdown on social media in Russia (not something you if you think you're winning, right?).

Obviously I don't know shit and Ukraine can still fall, but it's a markedly different vibe from the first two days.