>I guess that's a characteristic that you and I share.
>
>>You just preferred the polls.
>
>There's nothing wrong with polls, as long as they're conducted
>well and understood in context. The polls were a lot more
>predictive in 2016 than people gave them credit for. If poll
>aggregators said Hillary had a 3/4 chance of winning in 2016
>and Trump won, that's no stranger than throwing two coins and
>getting heads both times. The polls were telling us the race
>was close. People just refused to believe them.
>FiveThirtyEight was bouncing around between 65% and 80%, and
>that was before the Comey announcement.
>
>It's EARLY to look at some polls. The horserace polls right
>now are just measuring name recognition, but Reeq knows that.
>I assume the polls that interest him are his general
>popularity ratings, which are still quite good. (As I've said,
>he'll have plenty of chance to change that.)

Yeah I dont disagree with any of this. My main points were
it’s too early to let polls guide “us” and that Biden was
coasting off name recognition- as you said.


>
>>I’ve asked and asked who gets excited for Biden
>>other than older white Dems...never got an answer.
>
>Them, and people with Obama nostalgia. Together, those groups
>constitute the core of the progressive coalition.

This is where I disagree. I don’t think Obama nostalgia
is a winning strategy- especially as long as Trump
can claim a good economy.

I think “Let’s go back 4 years” is a losing message.

I also think the primaries will erode that Obama
connection. I think as Biden gets attacked, etc-
people will start to see the difference.

Not to mention, I swore I read that Biden does not
expect an early Obama endorsement. I didn’t save
the link or anything, but my main point is pretty much
any Dem nominee would be able to cash in on
Obama love AND have a message of their own.
>
>>I think I like him less than I liked Hillary in ‘16.
>
>That's only a problem if you're a representative voter. You're
>not; none of us here is.

Right, but that is also my point on the “Let’s go
back 4 years” message. I don’t think that’s enough
to win.

There are people in this country who are okay with this
Trump shit. Their 401ks are up. They hear about low
unemployment, etc. Even if they are apathetic to Trumps
shit telling them “Let’s go back” probably won’t be enough.


>
>>Biden wins the nom and we’re toast. No coalition,
>>no hype, deflated base, young people stay home.
>
>Like I've said a number of times, I don't like Biden, but to
>play Biden's advocate: he's the MOST likely person to build a
>big coalition, even if only thanks to Obama nostalgia.

I think uncle Joe telling the kids to be nice to the
bigots and buck up would get old real quick. That,
along with his other issues? I just don’t see his appeal
beyond older white Dems. Especially if the Obama
connection fades.

I mean Reeq has been one of the biggest Biden fans here,
and he’s sick of his shit.

And again, I think joe gets beat up in GE.

As for
>hype, the election will be a referendum on Trump. The hype is
>to beat Trump. Saying the base will be deflated requires a
>very selective definition of who constitutes the base. As far
>as young people staying home, they came out just fine for
>Hillary, and that was when most people were unwilling to admit
>that Trump could win.
>

Hillary also had the hype of making history.

Maybe “beat Trump” will be enough, I just wouldn’t
want to gamble on it.

To sum up- my fear is that Biden will end up just popular
enough with Dems to win the nom and lose the GE. Biden
gives me 16 flashbacks, as I’ve said.

Trump is effective when he has a foe, too. In a GE against
Biden, he can go on the offensive about the Obama admin
and claim a better economy, etc.

A fresh face so to speak has a better chance of putting Trump
on the defensive in my opinion.