The pattern was:

Walt gets placed in a near impossible position where anyone else would die/get caught.
He works a plan, a logical longshot, that has a 10% chance of actually working.
Through blind luck and hard work he pulls it off.

This half of the season has been different because he's never really been put in that impossible position; he's literally at the top of the world and that's the first for the show. The thing that put him in the most danger, Hank finding out, was already handled by all that tainted money and threatening to make him a scapegoat (which really wasn't that hard a plan to think of).

Jessie was a problem solved easily by a 'trip to belize' and it was his fault for choosing a half measure and he was forced to call a hit anyway.

So really it's been his hubris that's been his downfall in Season 5, and they gave plenty of clues to that along the way...he thinks he can talk his way out of anything and why not? It's worked 100% of the time so far. Him bargaining with the nazi's was dumb, but from his perspective why not? Desperate lying Walt has always worked in the past.

Hell, outside of him babbling about the 80 grand in a pathetic attempt to save Hank's* life you could argue he even won the previous episode episode (cornered and caught literally red handed, he's able to make a phone call that could erase all the evidence in one big knot except he isn't willing to kill Hank)