>and i reiterate my belief from two years ago, during the
>avatar/hurt locker wars, that no film that made less than $40
>million (i might push that down to 30 today) should be
>seriously considered for best picture. if it can't find an
>audience beyond a small niche group, then it just didn't
>resonate enough overall to be considered the best movie made
>that year.

Things like distribution and marketing often affect a movie drastically. Not just indies-- I'd point to Warrior this year, which was a terrific and very mainstream film with horrible marketing (a poster with hot shirtless guys! another shitty movie about fighting!) and a shitty distribution (1800 theaters, followed by a quick pull from cineplexes).

i don't know. then again, i had margin call ($5
>mil) in my top three, so... it's an inexact science.

Another movie that with better distribution and (ANY) marketing makes closer to 20-25 mil. It's also had with a movie like Margin Call to determine how much money they made via VOD.

Many movies don't get a chance to make their money at the BO, because studios don't make their money at the BO-- they make their money on DVD sales, which Oscars help tremendously. Movies like Tinker Tailor, Beginners, Tree of Life, Shame, Take Shelter, My Week With Marilyn, Jane Eyre... they were never released into 1000 theaters. Take Shelter at its high point was in 91 theaters at once, Shame 95, Beginners 170. You're telling me Beginners can't have done at least 20 mil if given a Garden State style release? The producers just aren't interested in that though.

Which does affect an audience's ability to see a film. But with movies getting more expensive to attend, more expensive to market, and more expensive to distribute, the studios would rather go for critical acclaim and developing a DVD audience than making a big push and hoping for another 15-20 mil at the box office, most of which it would cost just to market/distribute.

Further use of VOD and further release of the numbers a movie makes via VOD very well may help indies get seen more in the coming Oscar seasons. I think a big reason why Margin Call got that nom was its VOD release, which got it more widely seen than something like Take Shelter or Martha Marcy May Marlene.