pre-emptive L for manoj:

http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2008/05/early-trackin-3.html

Tracking will, obviously, continue to improve for The Incredible Hulk, but these early number suggest that this will be a very solid hit with, conservatively, at least $50 million on opening weekend, and it could still rival the $62 million that Lee’s version grabbed in its opening frame. With positive word-of-mouth, there’s no reason why this movie can’t get to $140 million-$150 million domestic. I will continue to update the tracking as industry execs share it with me.

On that same June 13 date, M. Night Shyamalan’s The Happening (20th Century Fox) does not appear to pose any real threat. The mercurial filmmaker, whose last film was the dreadful Lady in the Water, faces an uphill battle with this movie, which has been (badly) shrouded in secrecy. (The problematic screenplay has been rather completely shredded by Internet movie mavens.) I do not know anyone who has seen it, and it remains unclear whether there will be advance screenings for critics. That is not a good sign.

Starring Mark Wahlberg and Zooey Deschanel, The Happening has virtually no buzz with just 2 percent Un-Aided Awareness, and the movie, which may be Shyamalan’s take on global warming, has only 54 percent Awareness. It trails The Incredible Hulk in Definite Interest with a mere 30 percent, and Happening has only a 4 percent First Choice score 18 days out.

The bottom line may be that moviegoers do not trust the Indian-born, Pennsylvania-raised auteur after a less-than-satisfying twist in his 2004 movie The Village and the disastrous Lady in the Water. It is a very safe bet that The Incredible Hulk will easily win the June 13 weekend, and Shyamalan will need positive word-of-mouth to parlay The Happening into becoming a modest hit.