As far as the indie breakout thing, I dunno -- I think it's a function of Sundance being taken over by the major studios. They might screen a whole number of good movies there, but the studios are only picking the "quirky" and "offbeat" ones that they know will still hit big with a larger audience. In turn, aspiring movie makers want to sell their movie at Sundance, so they're less likely to take all the chances they might want to.

It could also be a product of the audience, I don't know, but it just seems impossible to discount how movies get marketed every summer as "the talk of Sundance" which really just means a studio bidding war went on for it.