They are usually good about their projections. Also, this is the second biggest opening of the year so far. Madea made 30, Big Momma's House made 28. And I know this is typically the dumping ground part of the year but look at the top grossers so far:

Still, the key in today's box office is the second week. 8 below opened with 20 million but then only dropped 20 percent and brought in 15 million the next weekend, its at 77 million now. Date Movie opened at 19 mil, fell 50 percent the next two weekend and has capped out at 47 million.