The following is a list of
alternatives proposed by
Rufus E Miles Jr., a former
senior fellow of the Woodrow
Wilson School, Princeton Uni-
versity, and a former thirty-
year career official of the U.S.
government.

Strategy Number One: A Negotiated Peace

Japan's deteriorating military capacity capacity convinced Acting Secretary of State Joseph Grew that the Japanese would be open to a negotiated peace which included the allow retention of the Japanese Emperor. Grew sought to persuade Truman of his views on May 28, three weeks after V-E Day.

The Grew strategy, which had envisioned a successful American diplomatic effort to end the war by an offer and acceptance of a "conditional surrender" (the same condition that became the accepted basis for surrender in August) by the end of July, was subsequently considered by several people to have had more than an outside possibility of success. Among those who thought so in retrospect, in addition to Grew himself, were Hanson Baldwin, military analyst for The New York Times, and Robert J.C. Butow, author of Japan's Decision to Surrender. Especially significant was the view expressed by Secretary of War Stimson, as stated in his autobiography, co-authored with McGeorge Bundy. "It is possible," said Bundy, "in the light of the final surrender, that a clearer and earlier exposition of American willingness to retain the Emperor would have produced an earlier ending to the war. . . .

Strategy Number Two: Intensified Bombing and Blockade Until November 1, 1945

Based on a detailed investigation of all the facts and supported by the testimony of the surviving Japanese leaders involved, it is the Survey's opinion that certainly prior to 31 December 1945, and in all probability prior to I November 1945, Japan would have surrendered even if the atomic bombs had not been dropped, even if Russia had not entered the war, and even if no invasion had been planned or contemplated.

In the light of General Marshall's and Admiral King's assessments of the extremely weak condition of Japan during the last months of the war, and in view of the conclusions of the Strategic Bombing Survey that Japan would in all probability have surrendered before November 1, 1945, and considering the shock to Japan of the Soviet declaration of war on August 8, this second scenario seems, in retrospect, to have been the more probable one in the event the atomic bombs had not been available or had deliberately not been used.