Have you studied history?

Alliances btw nations break down all the time.

Hell, during WWII, the US and USSR were big ol' allies. Look what happened to that. The UK and France are friendly now, but that goes against centuries of history when they were bitter enemies. And I don't even have to mention Germany (I hope). They've gone back and forth several times w/all the major powers of Europe.

Point is, things are calm over there now, but this calm is a historical anomaly. It's an aberration.