Just in case you thought I forgot...

"Ten years from now, we might say that the 2010 National League rookie class was the best to ever enter the game.

Consider this: Gaby Sanchez, Tyler Colvin, Chris Johnson, Starlin Castro, Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, and Ike Davis all made fine debuts as hitters.

Jaime Garcia, Jhoulys Chacin, Madison Bumgarner, Hisanori Takahashi, Mike Leake, Barry Enright and Dan Hudson have all had solid rookie seasons on the mound.

We haven't even mentioned Stephen Strasburg or Aroldis Chapman yet; John Axford looks like a legit relief pitcher for the Milwaukee Brewers, and Mike Stanton has 20 homers in 361 plate appearances for the Florida Marlins.

However, the 2010 NL ROY race is going to come down to two guys: Jason Heyward and Buster Posey. Let's break that one down.

If the NL ROY was defined simply as the "most valuable rookie," the award should go to the Atlanta Braves' star. Both Heyward and Posey have similar production -- a .381 wOBA for Heyward against a .380 wOBA for Posey, for example. Posey plays the more difficult position and plays it well, but that advantage is negated and more by the large gap in playing time. Heyward has been in the major leagues for the entire season, outside of some missed time due to injury, and as such he has 586 plate appearances to Posey's 409. It's this gap that accounts for Heyward's lead in wins above replacement (4.5 to 4.0), and it's unlikely (although not impossible) that Posey can close that gap in the last two weeks of the season.

However, if we treat the award as a "most outstanding rookie" type of award -- like the Cy Young award in its current form -- we may come to a different conclusion. This plate appearance gap which separates Posey and Heyward can be saddled completely on Brian Sabean, general manager of the San Francisco Giants. Sabean was content to hand Bengie Molina $4.5 million for the 2010 season and let him start games behind the plate while banishing Posey to Triple-A Fresno due to concerns over Posey's defense.

That didn't work out too well for the Giants, as Molina hit a paltry .257/.312/.332 while Posey tore up Triple-A to a line of .349/.442/.552. When the Giants called up Posey, they were scoring only 4.25 runs per game and despite a solid 26-22 start -- mostly due to their pitching -- they were still 2½ games behind the San Diego Padres.

The Braves had decided to go for the postseason from the outset of Bobby Cox's final season, and knew that they would be best served with a hitter like Heyward in their lineup. Without Heyward, it's hard to imagine that the Braves would even be sniffing the pennant race; with him, they are a half game behind the Padres for the wild card.

Let's take a look at the performances of these two outstanding rookies outside of the playing time factor.

As mentioned above, both are extremely similar hitters. Heyward has more walks (14.5 walk percentage vs. Posey's 6.5) and therefore a higher on-base percentage. Posey has fewer strikeouts (13 percent of PAs vs. Heyward's 20.5 percent), and therefore has the higher batting average, and due to their similar power profiles, the higher slugging percentage as well. Overall, it evens out: Both players have performed roughly 40 percent better than the average MLB hitter.

Then, it comes down to the value in the field. Heyward is, by most accounts, a fantastic right fielder both in terms of range and arm. Ultimate zone rating (UZR) rates him as only one run better than the average right fielder, but Baseball Info Solutions' defensive runs saved (DRS) rates him as 12 runs better, a radical difference. Regardless, it's certainly fair to call Heyward an above-average right fielder, even if the magnitude is in question. That makes him a slightly below-average defensive value, as right field is one of the easiest positions to play. Posey, on the other hand, plays the toughest position by far, and he has played it quite well thus far; DRS rates him as four runs better than the average catcher as far as allowing stolen bases, and on top of that, he has only one passed ball the entire season.

Break it down this way, then: Heyward and Posey are similar offensively, but the latter plays a much tougher position and plays it very well; the gap in time difference isn't something he could have controlled. Overall, Posey is the most valuable NL rookie of 2010"

With the NL West all but clinched (magic number = 1), looks like a lock for Posey.