let's look at some facts here on the penguins:

-they are approaching 300 games played in the past three seasons. that is a lot of fucking games.

-this year, perhaps even more than last year when they actually struggled at one point, they have been relying on a Spurs-like ability to turn it on when it matters. so far it's worked out but ottawa lacked the real firepower to oppose them. if they catch halak playing this hot or get a healthier mix of bruins or flyers in the final, they could have trouble doing that.

-the penguins have had problems beating the trap all season, we saw it some in this series and we have certainly seen it plenty in a trap heavy east. they can try and get their centers carrying the puck their wingers are too goddamn slow to make a trap-break pay so they wind up turning it over. if they go up in games they have more success but they rarely do that, they didn't score early against ottawa and down the regular season stretch they didn't score the first goal often at all. look at their record against new jersey, 0-6, shit even the CAPS trapped it up against them once they had a lead in the last meeting.

-they have not beaten winning teams this season. there were eight teams with records better than pittsburgh, against them the pens were three ... and ... sixteen. again, fortunately they are facing the bottom three, all teams with a little worse records, but at this point those teams are better than the higher seed that were eliminated (they had one win against DC I think, two against buffalo, none vs NJ).

-they have NO DEPTH outside of the center position, their top four wingers are only serviceable with no one solid behind them and their defense is also quite thin with guys like goglioski getting too much responsibility. they miss gill and scuderi, big time IMO, and an injury to an important player like the ones sustained OK by boston and philly already would not be as easy to surmount for them.

-their power play is not strong, no solid right handed shot and little ability to take advantage of the full sheet of ice. they clocked in around 17% this year, not very good, and if you cannot beat a trap it magnifies the importance of a power play.

the penguins can be beaten, all three teams they are facing are getting better as this thing goes on, too.