swiped from http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&page=pennantpulse/080922

NL East race being decided by relief pitching

By Jayson Stark

It isn't September of 2007 that hangs over the Mets' psyches anymore. It's their bullpen of 2008.


NL EAST
TEAM RECORD GB
Philadelphia 88-68 --
New York 86-69 1½

NL WILD CARD
TEAM RECORD GB
New York 86-69 --
Milwaukee 85-71 1½

We've talked a lot this month about the Mets' 2007 nightmare. But the more we watch this 2008 edition, the more we're convinced: This year, their biggest problem is a whole different nightmare.

Bad memories, you can stomp out. Bad bullpens … eh, not so much. These Mets are living proof.

So with every day that goes by, every late-inning lead that slips away, it becomes more apparent that bullpen success, or lack thereof, is going to wind up being the difference in the National League East.

That difference is now 1½ games, after a Mets loss in Atlanta and a Phillies win in Florida on Sunday. But if all games ended after six innings, those NL East standings would look a whole lot different.

In fact, according to Bill James Online, here's how those standings would look if games were six innings:

Teams W-L GB
Mets 84-52 --
Phillies 71-62 11½

Yep, you read that right. If games were six innings, the Mets would be leading this division by 11½ games.

OK, suppose all games were eight innings. Here's how those standings would shake out:


Teams W-L GB
Mets 83-59 --
Phillies 75-64 6½


Mind-boggling, isn't it? How gigantic are those last three outs? Gigantic enough to cause an eight-game swing in the standings. Gigantic enough, in other words, to change everything about this race.

Thanks to the best closer in baseball this year, Brad Lidge (sorry about that, K-Rod), the Phillies are 75-0 when they lead after eight innings. Their bullpen has blown just 15 saves (in 61 opportunities), fewest in the NL.

On the other hand, thanks to a bullpen that has lost its closer and has lost all sense of stability, the Mets have lost seven games they led after eight innings and 14 games they led at some point in the eighth inning or later. Their bullpen has blown 29 saves (in 71 opportunities), the second-most in the league, behind St. Louis.

So how ominous is that? Well, the good news for the Mets is that the 2007 Rockies also blew 29 saves -- and reached the World Series.

Now here's the bad news: Those Rockies are the only team in history that blew that many saves in a season and went on to win a postseason series (since the inception of the modern save rule).

So let's say this again: The difference in the NL East isn't that 2007 hangover. It's relief pitching, pure and simple.

"Both those bullpens are fried at this point, but the Phillies' is less fried -- and they have Brad Lidge," one NL scout said. "The difference between these two teams, really, is Brad Lidge. And even if Billy Wagner was still healthy, the difference is Brad Lidge."

After Sunday, Lidge is 40-for-40 in save conversions this year. If he makes it through this week without a blown save, he'll join Eric Gagne (55-for-55 in 2003) as the only closers in history to save at least 40 games in a season and blow none.
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THWND.