>
>Go back to 2005. Tell the 49ers that they'd get the
>career Alex Smith would end up having. Then ask them if
>they'd take him #1 overall.

1. He clearly wasn't what they thought he'd be. But if you present it how it really happened: "He won't be what you think he is, especially at first, but when he puts it together in a few years you'll be a contender." I sincerely think any team bad enough to draw the #1 pick would take that, especially if you add in that he'll (albeit against his will) pass the torch to a better QB.

2. If, on the other hand, you framed it as "Aaron Rodgers is going to be one of the best QBs in the land." then no, they wouldn't. In the discussion of busts I personally don't put too much weight on who a team could've taken otherwise because you could second-guess nearly every pick in every draft if you go down that road.