that the numbers arent completely catastrophic precisely because much of the world basically shut down?

without the shutdowns...the death toll would be dramatically worse. not only would you have an increase in the 1st layer of infection...but with an overwhelmed health system...theres less life saving treatment available in ratio to those infected (spiking the rate of death). then you have those indirect deaths where people at the hospital for other life threatening ailments might miss out on emergency treatment too (shortage of beds, available staff, etc).

basically italy.