Someone on the Kitchen Confidential subreddit asked, "what happens when this is 'over'?" and it just so happened to follow me reading the first third of Dave Chang's recent interview in the NY Times. I wish more people had responded so I wasn't the most upvoted response on the topic, but maybe that's the problem. My spot is fighting as hard as it can / is emotionally capable of, but I really think the restaurant world we all grew to love through the late 2000s and 2010s has died an immediate death.


------


I'm more inclined to see things the way Dave Chang does.

"More than anything, David (Marchese, the NY Times profiler interviewing Chang), I do not want to incite panic and hysteria, but I think for restaurants and the service industry, there is going to be a morbidly high business death rate. My fear is the restaurants that survive are going to be the big chains, and we’re going to eradicate the very eclectic mix that makes America and going out to eat so vibrant and great. And there is a lot of feeling that even in good times, if chefs can’t make their numbers, they’re going to lose everything, so imagine what they must be feeling now. When the economy is booming, it’s hard for restaurants to get loans from the bank because there’s no assets to back them. I don’t know if it’s going to be feasible for the government to give out a stimulus loan to a restaurant or restaurant groups the way they were able to do in 2008 to the auto companies. So I’m trying to figure out what the best way is. The government should give a greater bailout package to real estate owners so that there can be relief for restaurant owners. It has to move up the chain."

Similarly, I don't want to be grim. My restaurant pivoted to delivery and takeout, we're slowly getting into cocktail takeout/delivery but aren't really investing in that the way some other area restaurants and bars are (some of the takeaway packaging I've seen is truly beautiful and inspired) so I'm not sure that'll really become a backbone for us financially the way it was when we were a dine-in restaurant. I'm in a position where I can see the numbers, and I know the only reason we're even open is our food skirts the line between fine dining and casual in a way that it can be delivered while our landlord asks for a percentage of profits rather than the actual value of our real estate. Without her philosophy of cultural identity as a driver of commerce and creativity we would already be closed.

There is going to be a lot of psychological turmoil people are not going to be able to afford to deal with. Every day before I go in, I nearly - or do - cry about all the coworkers I'm not going to see that day. Every day when I leave, I feel so emotionally drained from the experience - even on a good day - all I can do is go home, sit in the dark and wait to get tired enough to sleep. And I'm still working. A lot of very qualified, very passionate service workers are going to transition into other lines of work because they don't have a choice, and if/when the restaurants they worked at re-open they'll have to balance the security they've found in their new jobs vs. the gamble that their old job will be as lucrative or lifestyle-sustaining as it was before. Most, I suspect, will take the former no matter how much nostalgia they have for the latter.

Many of the diners that have the disposable income to continue supporting their favorite restaurants will lose that frivolous impulse as the impact of sporting events, industry conferences and other sources of tens of millions of dollars in revenue trickles upward into their industries as well. Others just won't trust that they can comfortably go back to dining in with the snap of a finger, while others still will have a bad experience on an understaffed, undertrained and overstressed night that is way busier and more chaotic than they're used to and decide staying home and getting delivery or cooking themselves has proved more comfortable and reliable. Or they'll have become so used to the shift in pricing - Alinea is selling $35 meal plans rather than $300 dinners - they just won't be able to justify the expense no matter how fond their memories of the old days.

I think ultimately the dining landscape is going to look a lot more like it did in the '80s than it did in the '00s, commercially and financially efficient but unchallenging and slightly dispassionate. You'll find the same product from the same producers and distributors under every single roof, with everyone desperately afraid to shake things up or express the personality of the owners and their staff for fear the risk of individuality is too damn high.


~~~~~~~~~
"This is the streets, and I am the trap." � Jay Bilas
http://www.popmatters.com/pm/archive/contributor/517
Hip Hop Handbook: http://tinyurl.com/ll4kzz