Newt in the lead again.

then Feb 2012.

Santorum in the lead.

by March 2012 Romney's lead was more secure. and by then more ppl were casting actual votes in real primary elections and caucauses too.

point - poll results at this point in a campaign season aren't necessarily good predictors of which candidate will win the GOP nomination at the convention. more specifically - the fact that Trump is leading in some polls right now doesn't necessarily mean he will win the GOP nomination at next year's convention.