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But some of the things that led Jackson to being the highest shot block rate guy in the draft are also what led to him struggling to stay on the court. He had a Danny Fortson level foul rate, easily the highest of anyone in this draft. And that was against a down-year Big Ten conference-- I think questioning if he can translate that degree of defensive efficiency at the next level and stay on the court, at least in his first couple of years in the league, is fair. (Carter's block rate is fourth in the draft-- notably lower than Jackson's, to be sure, but with a notably lower foul rate, so I think he can still provide that for a team.)
Meanwhile, on the other end of the court, Jackson took more shots than Carter on the outside because that was his role-- Nick Ward obviously can't exist more than five feet from the rim, so Izzo played Jackson as a stretch 4 on offense. Whereas Carter only really shot 3s after setting screens, because K was always playing Bagley as a stretch 4. While Jackson's FT% is better, Carter's isn't shabby, and I think on a different roster Carter is easily capable of handling a higher volume outside of the paint if needed. At least to the degree that the Celtics will need, as...
>Jackson is a 3&D center with all the tools to switch
>everything, most talented shot blocker in the draft, and
>higher volume shooter than Carter was
>given their full complement of perimeter guys, makes a lot of
>sense to me, even tho i agree Carter is much closer to
>immediate contribution
Carter is *much* better offensively down low than Jackson is, both crashing the offensive glass and executing in the post, and he's the best passing big in the draft (Jackson is probably third best, but that's not saying much in this class of bigs) so if the Celtics have a ton of perimeter options on the outside, and if they need their big man mostly to work the inside, set screens, pass out of the block, and hit occasional catch-and-shoot 3s when defenses collapse on the dribble-drive, Carter is definitely better at those things imo-- at least right today. (Save for the catch-and-shoot part, a nod I'd give to Jackson, tho Carter is second best of the lotto bigs in this regard.) Jackson's interior moves are so-so-- he's far deadlier facing the basket.
If the Celtics want five players all facing the basket at all times, keeping the paint empty, that's a different story, but I think Carter's ability to work the block, pass out, and crash glass would have obvious appeal.
Jackson's upside is obvious, and I get why he'll likely be taken above Carter, as people feel he can develop into something both very special and very in-the-style-of-today's-game... but I feel like the Celtics would want a win-now guy with upside. I feel like Carter is that more than Jackson. Jackson would be a better pick for, say, the Hawks, Grizzlies, Magic, teams that can afford to work with him for a couple of years, and if he has foul trouble, then who the fuck cares because they're looking to be lotto bound again next year, lol.
(BTW, this is all of course biased, as I saw JJJ play maybe five-six times, only once in person, and I saw every game Carter played in a Duke uniform. But I've been making the same arguments about JJJ's readiness in a bubble away from this conversation, for the record.)
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HELL YEAH! Man, if only Danny Ainge was our GM. *sigh*
