This post is four months late, but so stunningly little has actually happened that it may as well be November. Blessedly, we're done with a sport that actually writes time for meetings into the game action, and baseball is around the corner.

Since they finished playing, Minnesota has added three potentially high-leverage relievers with Addison Reed, Zack Duke, and Fernando Rodney. Adding successful relievers for relatively small amounts of money to the back of the bullpen is good, particularly since the Twins three year draft project of turning relievers into starters has yielded neither relievers nor starters, though watching Fernando Rodney pitch for other teams gives me heartburn. So I'm not really certain how I'm going to make it through the summer watching him finish games.

Actually, my favorite winter signing was of Michael Pineda. He's a buy-low guy coming off of TJ, but he has big upside and can possibly help in September.

They also missed out on Yu Darvish, a result which is so obvious that it mostly makes me ashamed that I thought the Twins had a chance. Apparently, I wasn't the only dummy there though - as the amount of money Darvish eventually signed for (6/126mm) actually seems pretty doable. Which means that Falvey and Levine's pitch was basically "we're the Twins. who wouldn't want to pitch here?" It actually looks like a sixth year was one year longer than Falvine wanted and that the opt-out clause was also a dealbreaker. But I'd still rather have seen the full sum of Darvish's contract and thought "shit. that's way too much."

Oh, and Miguel Sano was accused of sexual assault. Apparently MLB is in the process of investigating that, but considering their relatively tepid response to incidences where the police were actually contacted (Jose Reyes and Aroldis Chapman recently, Brett Myers less recently) I don't really expect much to come of this. I guess that's good for the Twins on the field, though that's not really the point. Sort of makes me think that professional sports is going to be largely #metoo-resistant between the strong unions (an otherwise good thing) and the intense public interest in how many homeruns Miguel Sano hits compared to the relative disinterest in how many women he manhandles. Which is to say, that this is both a specific and an abstract bummer.

Ordinarily, I'd post a 25-man roster, but it's mostly set after last year and we can just watch the relatively few ambiguities play out during Spring Training. So in the mean time, here is Mike Berardino's "big questions" article. My answers are, respectively:

-not an actual ace, but back in May
-Yeah, Darvish would have been swell
-Arrieta? I don't know. Who cares?
-Sure
-I'll take Litell
-Like, a thousand
-No. That's dumb.
-Yeah, we're still not that good.
-Small.

https://www.twincities.com/2018/02/13/starting-nine-answering-twins-biggest-questions-as-spring-training-begins/

Starting Nine: Answering Twins’ biggest questions as spring training begins


By MIKE BERARDINO | mberardino@pioneerpress.com | Pioneer Press
PUBLISHED: February 13, 2018 at 12:10 pm | UPDATED: February 13, 2018 at 9:01 pm

Questions, questions, questions. Everybody’s got questions.

We have nine of our own — along with some of the usual optimistic, best-case answers — as the Twins open their fourth spring training under manager Paul Molitor.

Pitchers and catchers stage their first official workout Wednesday morning in Fort Myers, Fla. Opening Day in Baltimore, March 29 this year, is right around the corner:

1. Hey, where’s the ace?

Ervin Santana? You probably won’t see the 35-year-old right-hander on the mound for the Twins until late April or early May after he underwent Feb. 6 surgery on the middle finger of his pitching hand.

Still smarting from a two-inning drubbing in the wild-card loss at Yankee Stadium last fall, Santana needs to reach 200 innings for a second straight season — plus pass a year-end physical — in order to trigger a $14 million option for 2019.

Even if he fails to get there, the Twins still could decide to bring him back for a fifth season. He is coming off his first all-star appearance in nine years and has been a positive influence in the clubhouse.

2. Oh, sorry, you meant Yu Darvish?

Uh, he’s in Arizona with the Chicago Cubs, who finally agreed to sign him over the weekend for six years and $126 million, with a chance to earn another $25 million or so through performance bonuses.

The Twins, as promised, chased the Japanese pitching star for three solid months before reportedly refusing to go beyond five years at around $20 million per season. Signing Darvish would have been a huge boost to the Twins’ rotation but other options remain.

3. OK, so who will the Twins sign to help this modest rotation?

Or acquire. Don’t forget the trade avenue, although the oft-rumored Tampa Bay Rays are far more likely to part with right-hander Jake Odorizzi, under control through 2019 via salary arbitration, than staff ace Chris Archer, whose remaining obligation of $34 million over the next four years makes him one of the game’s most valuable arms.

Top remaining free agents include Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and ex-Rays right-hander Alex Cobb. Then there’s the next tier that includes former Twins lefty (for one start) Jaime Garcia, Jason Vargas, Jeremy Hellickson, John Lackey and old friend Ricky Nolasco (sorry).

Anyone who is brought in would compete with the likes of holdovers Adalberto Mejia, Phil Hughes, Tyler Duffey, Aaron Slegers, Dietrich Enns and Trevor May for rotation spots behind potential Opening Day starter Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson.

Ex-Yankee Michael Pineda, working back from Tommy John surgery last July, hopes to be ready to help by September.

4. Will Miguel Sano be ready for Opening Day?

He should be, barring a setback as the slugging third baseman works back from his Nov. 13 surgery to install a titanium rod in his left shin. Then again, the Twins will be careful not to rush him back into the field too quickly, so more time at designated hitter would make sense, at least early in the season.

There’s also the specter of Major League Baseball’s investigation into freelance photographer Betsy Bissen’s Twitter allegation of a 2015 assault against Sano. The league has made it clear there is no timeline for completing the investigation, which began immediately after the Dec. 28 public allegation and remains ongoing.

A fine or suspension remains possible for Sano under the sport’s joint policy with the players’ union on domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse, but the Twins are well-covered with Eduardo Escobar, coming off a career-high 21 home runs in 2017, able to handle third base in Sano’s absence.

5. Who are the spring phenoms?

If you’re talking about which young arms could give Molitor and new pitching coach Garvin Alston something to wrestle with, look to Triple-A lefty Stephen Gonsalves and Double-A right-handers Fernando Romero and Zack Littell.

Gonsalves needs to show his pitching shoulder can hold up, but his results have sparkled at each level despite a lack of overpowering stuff. Romero has the big fastball and serious swagger to go with it, but a shoulder impingement landed him on the shelf last August for Chattanooga.

Littell, acquired from the New York Yankees in the Garcia deal last July, went a ridiculous 19-1 across three different leagues in 2017 and was added to the 40-man roster in November.

In the bullpen, funky lefty Gabriel Moya could push for a spot after impressing in a September audition, and John Curtiss, armed with future-closer stuff, could make things interesting for the setup crew.

6. How old is Fernando Rodney again?

At the moment, the Twins’ new closer is 40. That odometer number, seemingly meaningless in his case, ticks to 41 on March 18.

That’s one reason the Twins were able to sign him for one guaranteed year at $4.5 million with the chance to earn another $1.5 million through incentives. Rodney enters with 300 career saves, third among active relievers, and a reputation for eventful save conversions that has come to be known as the Fernando Rodney Experience.

Just in case, they went ahead and signed veteran Addison Reed (125 career saves) at $16.75 million over two years. Reed, who broke in with the Chicago White Sox and wanted to get back to the Midwest, could be used anywhere in the back third of the game, and he’s fine with that.

There’s also veteran lefty Zach Duke, brought in on a one-year deal to help young lefty Taylor Rogers get the ball to the closer(s).

7. Isn’t it time to let Byron Buxton lead off?

You might think that, especially after the burgeoning young star was caught stealing just once in 30 attempts last season and reached base at a .347 clip in the second half. But the fact is that Brian Dozier, his fellow Rawlings Gold Glove Award winner, has shown repeatedly he hits best out of the leadoff spot.

Joe Mauer is going to hit second or third, so maybe Buxton fills the other spot and pushes Sano down into the cleanup role. Or, to take pressure off the notoriously slow-starting Buxton, maybe Molitor leaves him at the bottom of the order until he proves his progress made in the second half of 2017 will carry over.


8. What’s this about PECOTA and what does it have to do with the Twins?

According to Baseball Prospectus’ annual projection program, the Twins are looking at a break-even season of 81 wins, which would be four fewer than a year ago. That would leave them 16 wins behind the two-time division champion Cleveland Indians in the American League Central, and behind projected wild-card contenders in Boston (87 wins), Tampa Bay (84) and Seattle (83).

Then again, did you ever see Bill Pecota play infield for the late-‘80s Kansas City Royals? There you go.

9. What are the chances this is 2016 all over again?

PECOTA aside, not too high. True, Molitor’s 83-win debut club face-planted to a 103-loss disaster the following season, but that team was already reeling from the retirement of clubhouse leader Torii Hunter when three-time all-star closer Glen Perkins went down one week in.

Overall depth is much better on the 2018 Twins, who also have a young positional core with multiple seasons of experience from which to draw. Then again, as the late, great pitcher Joaquin Andujar liked to say, “There is one word in America that says it all, and that one word is, ‘You never know.’

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Do we still think he's not a major league shortstop? Could he actually play in 2018?

------

12 play and 12 planets are enlighten for all the Aliens to Party and free those on the Sex Planet-maxxx

XBL: trkc21
Twitter: @tyrcasey

He's in that weird post-hype stage where none of the tools look absolutely superhuman but he's actually answered most of the questions about his skillset affirmatively. Still a plus runner, good hands, good arms, maybe not the most athletic shortstop ever but between the above *and* his work ethic *and* the fact that he's extremely polished having been in MLB clubhouses since he was a kid and you have what should be the sexiest type of prospect possible: an actual starting shortstop who can hit.

But since he's not going to field like Andrelton Simmons or hit like vintage Tulowitski, he's now boring.

The spring training invite was cool, but cooler still that he has to win the position since Jorge Polanco did everything right last year and actually won the position. I still like Nick Gordon as a shortstop more than I ever liked Polanco there, but the latter's glove there is a cool thing to be wrong about. And with Dozier getting older and more expensive, it's also comforting to have the 2019 (back half of 2018 if the Twins fall off and Dozier gets traded) option of: Gordon and Polanco, starting Twins middle infielders.

The tough thing for Gordon is that he's still got some work to do at Rochester. Nobody's going to stop questioning the glove until he's a proven MLBer. He added a bunch of power and nearly doubled his walk rate in a pretty incredible first half of 2017, but it came at the cost of contact issues (strikeout rate rising from 17% to 23%) that really sunk his second half. Like, he sucked from July on in 2017. But if he can start consolidating some of those skills - 2016 trends in contact, 2017 trends in discipline and power, then you've got a pretty good starting MLB shortstop.

He's also got to watch his back. I'm going to post some prospect lists eventually, but the Twins are suddenly rich in shortstops with Royce Lewis impressing some glove-doubters after he got drafted and Wander Javier actually started showing some of his huge potential stateside last year. Those are some thin margins if those guys make big jumps, but he's got a 2+ year head start on them.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

We really did get a lot more shortstop candidates in a short amount of time, but I was still sweating the "he has to move to the outfield" talk form last year.

------

12 play and 12 planets are enlighten for all the Aliens to Party and free those on the Sex Planet-maxxx

XBL: trkc21
Twitter: @tyrcasey

Anti-gentrification, cheap alcohol & trying to look pretty in our twilight posting years (c) Big Reg
http://Tupreme.com

I mean, that's true. He's 22. And the Twins drafted him in 2014.

The argument about whether he'll stick at shortstop seems to continue anyhow. I think he'll be a shortstop. Other folks disagree, but fewer and fewer everywhere. So we talked about it.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Anti-gentrification, cheap alcohol & trying to look pretty in our twilight posting years (c) Big Reg
http://Tupreme.com

Alex Verdugo, who's going to be pretty good but hasn't pulled it off yet, and Jack Flaherty. They've combined for -.8 WAR.

I don't actually care who the Twins shortstop of the future is anyhow. Polanco was pretty good last year. If he holds the job because Gordon tanks or if he holds it because Gordon's fine but just isn't as good, the Twins still get a shortstop. If they both tank, hopefully it's not so severe that we have to wait a long time to find out what becomes of Royce Lewis. And if he tanks, Wander Javier will be close behind.

Baseball's hard, so we're not relying on single scratch-offs for important positions anymore. Get four guys who could be decent shortstops, be happy if you hit on one.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-fans-ask-about-nick-gordon-trevor-may/c-269211972



Anti-gentrification, cheap alcohol & trying to look pretty in our twilight posting years (c) Big Reg
http://Tupreme.com

Here you go. And they think Jermaine Palacios (just outside the top ten) is the best defender of the bunch.

1. Royce Lewis, SS
DOB: 6/5/1999
Height/Weight: 6’2”, 188 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R

The Good: As you might expect for the reigning first-overall pick, there is a lot of The Good to be found in Lewis’ profile. There are exciting tools across the board, and his broad-shouldered, high-waisted frame is straight from the Projectability Factory. He should be able to add good weight and strength through maturity without compromising his top-shelf athleticism. He has plus-plus present speed that should remain largely intact for the foreseeable future, along with instincts for how to use it on the bases. His field-and-transfer is lightning quick, and he shows range in both directions at short, along with the physicality to handle the opportunities he also saw after signing at third and in center. The pitch recognition and approach are both advanced, and there’s at least above-average bat speed in the swing at present, with room for more as he gains more consistent mechanical efficiency. He’s been lauded at every turn for outstanding makeup.

The Bad: His throws from the left side can get a bit erratic, and his above-average arm strength will play down when he’s on the move on account of raw mechanics. While the physicality is there to play short, he doesn’t show the kind of innate feel for reading contact and attacking the ball that you’d like to see in a true six-spotter. There’s still a touch of uncertainty as to how much power he’ll grow into, with some of the variance dependent on how much he fills out.

The Role:

OFP 70—Five-tool all-star at an up-the-middle position
Likely 55—Above-average regular with consistent flashes of more

The Risks: The breadth and depth of Lewis’ tools and athleticism give him a significantly higher floor than your average prep bat in the low minors, and his maturity and outstanding makeup drove a jump from Rookie ball to full-season in his first go at professional baseball. There’s some innate variance in outcome here pending his physical maturation, where he ends up on the diamond, and how he takes to that eventual position, but there’s little doubt that he’s a premium prospect with an outstanding ceiling. —Wilson Karaman

Major league ETA: Late 2020

2. Nick Gordon, SS
DOB: 10/24/1995
Height/Weight: 6’2”, 180 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/R

The Good: Gordon does a lot of things well and he got better in 2017 in several areas that had been of concern previously. He improved his walk rate and hit for more power while also improving his defense at short. His ISO of .139 eclipsed his previous career high of .095 by a significant amount. He generates above-average bat speed that provides gap power. Defensively, he has a strong arm and good range and should stick as a competent, non-flashy shortstop—though he added some versatility by starting a handful of games at second base in 2017.

The Bad: Gordon does a lot of things well, but there is no elite skill. The power in 2017 came at the expense of an increased strikeout rate that has to be a concern. It should also be noted that his 2017 home park in Chattanooga is the most hitter friendly in the Southern League. A lot of his value will have to come from his hit tool and his ability to steal a base. He was more selective on the base paths in 2017, but still was successful on just 13 of 20 attempts. His struggles against lefties got even worse as he hit .174 with a .513 OPS in 121 at bats against southpaws in 2017.

The Role:

OFP 60—Solid everyday shortstop
Likely 50—Second-division starter in the middle infield

The Risks: Perhaps the biggest risk for Gordon is the glut of middle infield talent in the Twins’ organization. In addition to those listed here, Luis Arraez showed a lot of promise before tearing his ACL and missing almost all of 2017. If Gordon can’t solve lefties or carry over the 2017 power burst to more neutral hitting venues, he could find himself buried in the depth chart. —Scott Delp

Major league ETA: late 2018

5. Wander Javier, SS
DOB: 12/29/1998
Height/Weight: 6’1”, 165 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R

The Good: Are you expecting me to play it straight here? I could. There are plenty of good things to say about Javier. He’s a potential five-tool shortstop, and the bat will play even if he eventually has to slide to third. He has above-average bat speed and plenty of projection left in his teenaged frame. But what you are waiting for is a wink and a nod to the meme that Javier has become in BP chats. We all need games to pass the time. It’s a long list season, and I’ll play along. There are a lot of prospects to write about. If you want to talk about upside, and hoo boy does one of you seem to want to talk about Wander Javier’s upside, sure, he could make a few all-star games.

The Bad: The Twins were our last list in 2017. When it came time to do Javier’s blurb I got a little self-indulgent. There were 450 prospects to write about and fewer than 450 ways to write about them. Perhaps I was running on fumes, perhaps I was just too-clever-by-half again. You have a lifetime to write your first Wander Javier blurb and a year to write the second. He may slide to third. The power might be a bit short for a corner spot. He’s still in short-season ball. I wonder if I set in motion the six hundred chat questions on Wander Javier since by being too vague, by breaking the covenant. There’s 630 prospects this year. I’m stubborn. It runs on the Italian side of my family. I lean into these things. I’m difficult to edit. ]

The Role:

OFP 60—First-division major league shortstop
Likely 45—Second-division starter on the left side of the infield

The Risks: High. Limited stateside track record. Betting on physical projection some. We’ll know more next year of course and do this dance again.

Major league ETA: 2021

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

but i still love the twins posts when i can get to them.

Jake Odorizzi has been famous for awhile, but not SO FAMOUS that I ever bothered to have an opinion about him. Which is all to say that it's pretty surprising to discover that a pitcher whose hometown and approximate draft position I knew from memory and is in the prime of his career is projected by nearly everybody to be barely above replacement level in 2018. It's even weirder when you look at his peripherals, which to those of us suffering from Stockholm Syndrome at the hands of the Brad Radke Clone Army look pretty good. He strikes out just shy of a batter per inning in the hardass AL East. He doesn't walk a lot of guys. He has trouble keeping the ball in the park, but it's not irretrievably bad. Though 2017 maybe flirted with really awful.

It's almost like there's not really a such thing as bad starters anymore, so Odorizzi is now... bad?

But he's still pretty famous and if you'd asked me even two weeks ago if Jermaine Palacios (who I coincidentally mentioned above in the discussion of Twins' shortstop system depth) would have been enough to snag him, then I'd have given a hard "no". Though that was when I would have told you that Jake Odorizzi was pretty good, instead of just average, which is the new bad.

In any case, here's an article about why you should be hopeful. Honestly, the thing I like most - projections aside - is that he seems to be the literal opposite of the sort of pitchers we've seen Minnesota acquire in the past. He throws fastballs up in the zone to pair with a hard curve. If he fails, it'll be a new way for the Twins to fail.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jake-odorizzi-is-probably-an-adjustment-away/

Jake Odorizzi Is Probably an Adjustment Away
by Travis Sawchik - February 18, 2018

Last March, I approached Jake Odorizzi in the Tampa Bay Rays’ spring-training clubhouse to learn more about the cult of the high fastball he was leading among the club’s pitchers.

The Rays led baseball in 2016 by the volume of four-seamers thrown up in the zone. The reason: to negate the effect of swing planes more and more designed to damage pitches lower in the zone. The Rays were again one of the dominant high-fastball teams last season, ranking second in the sport by volume and percentage of fastballs located in the upper third and above the zone according to Statcast data via Baseball Savant. (They ranked 14th in spin rate.)

Odorizzi explained that, while other organizations had tried to change him, to have him establish his fastball down in the zone, the Rays had the right-hander embrace his high-spin fastball. While the pitch does not possess an elite spin rate, it’s better than average by that measure. The right-hander, for example, ranked 247th in spin rate among 660 pitchers to throw at least 100 four-seam fastballs last season (2,287). The pitch ranked 282nd out of 615 pitches (2,268 rpm) in 2016, according to Statcast data via Baseball Savant.

“When I was with Milwaukee early on, and with Kansas City in the lower minor levels, I was never really a lower-in-the-zone type of guy,” Odorizzi said. “When I was in Milwaukee, they kind of told me in a roundabout way ‘Well, if you don’t learn to pitch down in the zone, you’ll never make it to the big leagues.’ This was in 2008, 2009 which was, shoot, nearly 10 years ago. Pitching up in the zone consistently, purposefully, was unheard of. You pitch down in the zone, you get ground balls. I could pitch down in the zone, but I had more conviction when I did not consciously think about it and let do its own thing, let it take off a little bit.

“It was comforting for me to finally have an organization say ‘We like what you’re doing. .. So many pitchers have been down in the zone that hitters have started to adjust over time. It’s a product of being down there so long that hitters have made the adjustment… Trout will hit balls that are shin-high 450 feet like it’s nothing.”

As you’re probably aware, Odorizzi is no longer a Ray. He was traded on Saturday evening to a Minnesota club attempting to bolster one of the weakest rotations among potential contending clubs. The Twins rank 23rd in projected WAR from starting pitchers (8.3 WAR). The Rays seem interested, as is typically the case, in reducing payroll. Odorizzi, who had recently won an arbitration case against the club, will earn $6.3 million in 2018.

The cost of acquiring Odorizzi for the Twins, beyond his salary, is shortstop prospect Jermaine Palacios, who may not stick at the position.

While it seems to be a relatively low-risk add for the Twins, the deal could have significant value if Odorizzi can return closer to his 2014-16 form, when he ranked 44th in WAR (7.0) among starting pitchers and produced a 95 ERA-.

His production fell across the board last season, including career worsts in FIP (5.43), FIP- (127), and WAR (0.1).

What happened? His 21% strikeout rate remained steady, in line with his marks from the previous three seasons (21.5%, 21.4%, and 24.0%). His split-change was as effective as it had been the previous season, generating whiffs at a rate of 22% per swing. While his fastball velocity was down a half mph from 2016, the velocity (91.9 mph) was in line with his career average (92.0 mph), too. While his walk rate inched up, he held batters to a career-low BABIP .227.

What happened? The issue was the batted balls that did not count toward BABIP.

Odorizzi allowed a career-high 30 home runs last season in just 143 innings. (He missed time with a back strain.) While Odorizzi might have been adversely affected by a juiced ball and his back, he might have also have been too committed to his elevated-fastball approach. He became the cult leader of the high four-seamer.

In each of the last three seasons, Odorizzi has increased the average height of his four-seamer.

Among pitchers who threw at least 100 four-seam fastballs, Odorizzi tied Darren O’Day for the highest average height of four-seamers upon reaching the plate at 3.17 feet.

Odorizzi allowedan MLB-high 11 home runs in the upper third of the zone and just above the zone, according to Baseball Savant. Only Drew Pomeranz also reached double-digits (10) by that same measure.

But Pomeranz, like Rich Hill, pairs his elevated four-seamer with a big-breaking curveball he can throw for strikes both below the zone and up in it. Odorizzi’s swing-and-miss pitch is the split-change, which he tries to keep below the zone. It’s possible he is losing some tunneling effect as he creates greater vertical separation between his fastball and split-change. Also, pitches left up in the zone are still those most easily driven out of the park by major-league hitters. And hitters perhaps better understood that Odorizzi would be pitching up in the zone. Maybe Odorizzi was simply too predictable.

Consider his average fastball pitch location last season:

Perhaps there’s a case for Odorizzi to better mix-up his fastball location, as opponents appeared to be better zero-ing on his elevated fastballs. Consider slugging per pitch in 2016:

What’s encouraging is that Odorizzi might be a simple adjustment away from getting back to his 2014-16 level and being one of the 50 best pitchers in the game, a quality mid-rotation option for a team with postseason chances. For the Twins, it’s worth the acquisition cost paid to find out.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Mauer's in the final year of his contract, and given the state of the Twins' roster and the eye-opening success of improved team defense last season, I guess it matters less and less whether Sano can play third. Still, he's actually pretty okay over there and the roster looks strong and deep when Escobar is in a super-utility role and one of the things that made the infield defense work last year was Mauer's glove at first and, finally, having a middle-of-the-order bat play third just seems cooler.

So, in conclusion, I'd really like him to be able to stick at third base for one more year. Dozier probably isn't going to be around past this year, so even if the Polanco/Gordon/Lewis/Javier shortstop hierarchy results in more than one MLB shortstop (Polanco at the moment, and it's worth noting that they turned Palacios into a viable mid-rotation starter with Odorizzi, so well done) we'd still need ANOTHER one of them to click in order to cover third. Though... that'd be fun if we were able to play an infield with three shortstops just like the outfield of three centerfielders.

Still, one more year would be good.

http://www.startribune.com/twins-miguel-sano-healthy-and-happy-but-heavy/474439303/

Twins' Miguel Sano healthy and happy but heavy
By Phil Miller Star Tribune FEBRUARY 19, 2018 — 6:34PM

Miguel Sano was on the field Sunday at Twins' spring training.

FORT MYERS, Fla. – Miguel Sano reported to spring training Sunday, the three issues that complicate his 2018 season — health, weight and an assault investigation — seemingly reduced to two.

Sano has been given medical clearance to engage in all baseball workouts with his teammates, his surgically reinforced left shin now completely healed, though the Twins intend to lighten his schedule to prevent any new injuries.

They’d like to lighten something else, too: His “generous carriage,” as General Manager Thad Levine delicately put it last week. Sano’s conditioning understandably lags, after a winter largely spent incapacitated by the surgery.

And further clouding the third baseman’s status is an investigation by the commissioner’s office into allegations made in December of an assault on a Twin Cities photographer 29 months ago, an incident Sano has denied. MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred has the power to impose penalties — fines, suspensions or sensitivity training, among other options — if he finds that evidence warrants it.

But there is no public timeline for Manfred’s decision, and Sano said he has yet to be interviewed by MLB investigators.

“I haven’t heard anything. It’s still going on, the investigation right now,” Sano said Sunday. “I’m just waiting to see what happens.”

Twins third baseman Miguel Sano reported to spring training Sunday, the three issues that complicate his 2018 season — health, weight and an assault investigation — seemingly reduced to two.

MARK VANCLEAVE, STAR TRIBUNE
Twins third baseman Miguel Sano reported to spring training Sunday, the three issues that complicate his 2018 season — health, weight and an assault investigation — seemingly reduced to two.
More
So are the Twins, but in the meantime, they have a season to prepare for, and Sano’s status figures to play a major role in their success or failure. Even during a 2017 season in which he played just 114 games, Sano hit 28 home runs as the primary cleanup hitter and led the Twins with an .859 OPS.

With that in mind, manager Paul Molitor, who met with the 24-year-old Dominican on Sunday morning, has planned a slow-and-easy approach toward his springtime workload.

“I let him know that I’m not going to be overly urgent him into the game. We want to ease him into the drills,” Molitor said. “I know he’s been swinging and taking grounders and all that good stuff. He got behind on the conditioning this winter with the surgery, so we want to make sure we minimize his risk when we stick him out there. He’s good with that.”

Sano, who missed all but three games over the final six weeks last season because of a stress reaction in his left shin, had a rod placed inside his leg in mid-November to stabilize the bone. The Twins are confident that his leg has healed, but they worry that working him too hard too fast this spring could trigger other injuries, such as the hamstring pull he suffered in 2016.

“He’s got big hamstrings,” Molitor joked.

The manager probably won’t put Sano in the lineup for at least the first week of Grapefruit League games, which begin Friday, and perhaps not the second week, either.

“I’m kind of hoping it’s not that long,” Molitor said, “but I’m not really predetermining when that might be.”

For his part, Sano sounded eager to get on the field.

“I’m better, really better. I worked really hard,” he said.

Sano spent most of December in Twins camp, working with trainers, and returned to the Dominican last week for some last-minute drills from his hitting guru, former big leaguer Fernando Tatis.

“Fielding, hitting, running, it’s been good. … I’m going to work hard for my teammates and get ready,” Sano said.

The Twins say that will require a dedication to improving his physical condition. Sano grew heavier as the season went on last year, and the surgery prevented him from bringing his weight back down this winter.

“No way around it — he went a period of time where he was immobilized,” said Derek Falvey, Twins chief baseball officer. “It wasn’t an ideal offseason for him, clearly, from a workload or conditioning standpoint. … We’ve got to make sure to put him in a place where he can be successful, and that requires some conditioning focus.”

Sano clearly was energized by his return to camp; by the end of the day, he was good-naturedly shouting in Spanish at his teammates around the clubhouse, and hugging everyone who greeted him.

“He seems really happy to be here. He’s a guy that likes the environment,” Molitor said. “He’s been through a lot with the surgery and things that he’s had to have on his mind. I think getting out there and being able to use the thing he does best will be a little healthy.”

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Not gonna link the story. Basically, he's still hurt but not 60 Day DL hurt and they want the 40-man space. So he's been designated, apparently with the hope that it's close enough to the season that people don't really have 40-man space for an injured pitcher. Are there *any* pitchers left from that big run of relievers the Twins drafted a few years ago?

Burdi got TJ'd then Rule 5'd. Melotakis and Chargois have now been on and then off the 40-man, so while they're still in the organization that is... not the direction you're supposed to move.

This is a new boss issue, I guess. We've got a new batch of power arms that have top-of-rotation lotto ticket potential but should be late-inning bullpen candidates if they don't stick as starters. But if we went 0-3 on the last batch of those, I'm not terribly inclined to talk a lot about Fernando Romero or Brusdar Graterol.

Except that's a lie. I'm definitely going to talk about them.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Weird finish (maybe) to weird off-season. Morrison had a breakout year last year, which we're supposed to be suspicious of given his age. But Morrison is also a convert to the recent hit-the-ball-in-the-air trend that's also captured the attention of Jason Castro and... pretty much nobody else on the Twins. I'm agnostic on this trend, but I also trust the talent evaluation of the new front office and thought Castro didn't get enough credit for a pretty decent year at the plate last year. Plus, the price was definitely right. MLBTR predicted a 3/26mm deal for Morrison, so this is a gigantic bargain with little downside.

The most immediate impact is to Kennys Vargas. This probably finishes him as a Twin, unless they can safely option him to Rochester. I'm assuming he's out of options because he's not that young anymore, but this isn't 2007 anymore so I don't feel like checking. Either way, I think there's a non-zero chance he slides if the Twins try that. Every team has a hitter like Vargas in their system, so unless there's some reason why another club can help him breakout then he may be a Red Wing in 2018.

The secondary impact here is more of a suggestion. I was nervous about what this meant for Sano and his now-with-steel-rod leg. The Morrison signing, and the news that Sano is supposed to make his spring debut on Wednesday at third seems to indicate that he's still their thirdbasemen for the time being. There still could be a suspension and more time off than usual, but a Sano/Mauer/Morrison situation where they have to share 1B and DH seems dumb. And that's apparently not the expectation.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/logan-morrison-and-the-twins-great-advantage/

Logan Morrison, and the Twins’ Great Advantage

by Jeff Sullivan - February 26, 2018

Logan Morrison is signing with the Twins. It’s a one-year guarantee, worth $6.5 million, but there’s also an $8-million vesting option for 2019. Morrison turns 31 years old in August. It’s only natural to compare him to Yonder Alonso. Alonso turns 31 years old in April. He signed a couple months ago with the Indians, for a two-year guarantee, worth $16 million. There’s also a $9-million vesting option for 2020. Within the same market, Alonso did a little better than Morrison did. Maybe that’s not surprising — they’re different players! But then, are they, really?


Both Morrison and Alonso are lefty-hitting first basemen. Morrison is mostly going to DH with Minnesota, but that’s because Joe Mauer is already there. This past year, Morrison broke out at the plate, to the tune of a 130 wRC+. Alonso also broke out at the plate, to the tune of a 132 wRC+. Those marks were supported by the underlying Statcast measures, but both Morrison and Alonso were better in the first half than in the second. And, in case you weren’t paying attention, both Morrison and Alonso had their breakouts driven by the same adjustment.

Between 2014 and 2016, Morrison posted a 99 wRC+, and a 1.4 WAR. Alonso, meanwhile, posted a 96 wRC+, and a 1.3 WAR. Their expected wOBAs on record were virtually identical. Alonso, you might remember, made a point of trying to hit more fly balls. Morrison did the same thing. The effects were dramatic. There are 234 players who batted at least 250 times in both 2016 and 2017, and here are the five biggest decreases in ground-ball rate:

John Jaso, -18.6%
Jed Lowrie, -13.1%
Logan Morrison, -10.9%
Yonder Alonso, -10.2%
Travis d’Arnaud, -10.1%
Morrison dropped his grounders from 44% to 33%. Alonso dropped his grounders from 44% to 34%. Contact went down, but homers piled up, as Morrison and Alonso both became legitimate threats in the middle of the order. Now, you might be wondering: Why did neither player sign for more than they did? Clearly, the league doesn’t buy all the way in. Yonder Alonso projects for a 116 wRC+. Logan Morrison projects for a 115 wRC+. Eric Hosmer projects for a 116 wRC+. Carlos Santana projects for a 124 wRC+, but he was also worse at the plate than Morrison and Alonso just were. I think there’s a little bit of nervousness, that first-half Morrison and Alonso were flukes.

I’d understand if that were true, because the track records just aren’t there. Maybe the second halves just show that pitchers managed to adjust. Second-half Alonso made worse contact quality, while second-half Morrison just made less contact in general. It’s absolutely possible that Morrison and Alonso will go right back to being simply underwhelming, average hitters. But there’s a real chance the Indians and Twins will end up thrilled with themselves. The changes in approach, at least, are real, and there’s seldom any reason for a hitter like Morrison or Alonso to put the ball on the ground. We certainly could’ve seen real breakouts. In which case, these two teams were right to pounce.

Relative to last season, Morrison is getting a raise. Alonso is getting a raise as well, and you can’t feel too bad about these modest contracts, because while both players might’ve expected the market to yield stronger offers, these are still opportunities to start, and to start for competitive ballclubs. A year ago, both guys might’ve been on their last chance. Their careers, then, have been extended. Why did Alonso end up with the greater guarantee? Maybe it’s just a matter of the market being different in December. Maybe Alonso is considered the superior defender. Maybe Alonso is perceived to have the better makeup. Perhaps Morrison could’ve gotten that contract, if he’d signed first. Instead, he could now be a bargain for the Twins.

The player who’s displaced here is Kennys Vargas. Vargas had been in line for at least semi-regular at-bats, but now his roster spot is in jeopardy, with Morrison sliding in as the DH and as the backup to Mauer. Although Vargas has shown clear flashes of his massive power potential, he also has a career wRC+ of exactly 100, and he’s not coming off a season like Morrison had. Morrison makes the Twins better, immediately. Although the team hadn’t exactly set out to find another left-handed hitter, they couldn’t pass up this opportunity. The Twins are at that position where every single additional win is worth several millions of dollars.

It’s not just that the Twins made the playoffs a year ago. Sure, you always want to build off a season like that. But the Twins also have another advantage, something other teams can’t contend with. Take a look at our projected standings. The Twins show up at 83-79. That’s the seventh-best record in the American League. They’re four games behind the Blue Jays, and they’re one game behind the Angels. They’re just fending off the Mariners and Rangers.

Already, you can tell that the Twins are in position to add. But there’s something that projected-standings page doesn’t account for. And that’s the strength of every team’s schedule. Mostly, in baseball, you expect for schedules to be pretty similar across the board. Even with unbalanced schedules, the landscapes are generally fairly even. Yet the Twins have an opening in front of them. The worst projected team in the AL East is the Orioles, at 75-87. The worst projected team in the AL West is the A’s, at 79-83. The worst projected team in the AL Central is the Royals, at 66-96. Then there are the White Sox, also at 66-96. And then there are the Tigers, at 70-92. The AL Central has the three worst teams in the American League, and it’s not even close. They’re three of the four worst teams in baseball.

Yeah, the White Sox could over-achieve, because of all the young talent. Sure, the Tigers might get a few veterans bouncing back. Yet all three teams know it’ll be a rough season. In the East, the Orioles have refused to sell, and the Rays are trying to tread water. In the West, no one’s given up. The Twins will have a significant schedule advantage, which should be worth a few wins. I’ll have a whole separate post on that, when we eventually get the schedule-adjusted numbers. I’m sure I’ll talk about the Twins at length again. But for now, just realize where they’re sitting. In the West, no one is bad, and the Astros are amazing. In the East, no one is bad, and there are two super-teams at the top. In the Central, the Twins aren’t as good as the Indians, but they don’t have to be. They can aim for another wild-card game, and they’re in a better spot than our current projected-standings page would suggest.

The Twins are far from elite, and I suspect they know it. For all I know, they’re still going to add another starting pitcher. But while the Twins might not be great, there’s a playoff opening, because only so many teams can be great at a time. The Twins got in a year ago by being good enough, and while, sure, the Angels might’ve landed Shohei Ohtani, will he be as valuable to them as the Twins’ schedule will be to them? Call it unfair, if you want. Everything’s cyclical. By signing Logan Morrison, the Twins didn’t improve for the sake of improving. They improved for the sake of trying to bolster their run to the playoffs. Their chances are better than you’ve probably thought.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

I'm home from work* for extreme wind and the Twins are playing an 8/9ths Opening Day lineup, including the debut of Odorizzi and Morrison. And no TV feed.

MLB.com gets the big frown.

*a term I'm really abusing in this case since my job is really dumb, but it is technically a place I go to exchange my labor for money

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn, and Jake Arrieta are all sitting around sweating out whether they'll be on a roster by Opening Day.

Here are the Twins' rotationmates, plus some depth:

Jose Berrios
Kyle Gibson
Adalberto Mejia
Jake Odorizzi
Ervin Santana (DL until May, it seems)

Stephen Gonsalves
Phil Hughes
Felix Jorge
Zack Littell
Fernando Romero
Aaron Slegers
Lewis Thorpe
Anibal Sanchez

We, uh, good with that?

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

If Hughes is really healthy, couldn't he handle that 5th position? Or maybe even Sanchez?

------

12 play and 12 planets are enlighten for all the Aliens to Party and free those on the Sex Planet-maxxx

XBL: trkc21
Twitter: @tyrcasey

>If Hughes is really healthy, couldn't he handle that 5th
>position? Or maybe even Sanchez?

Most teams' April schedule doesn't really require a fifth starter, so it's not that uncommon a decision. But since Santana is out and that rotation is basically just a bunch of dudes and Jose Berrios' potential, seems like a good opportunity to keep guys rested and continue the spring tryout process.

No team has ever said "oh shit, we have too many useful starters" and if the Twins are even less sunny about Hughes and Sanchez than you or me then why roster them at all?

The one answer that I'll take is that Falvine wants to bring back the 100+ inning reliever. I am on board for an experiment that's seeking the next Mike Marshall.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Fun, right? I think I'd rather they be good. But if the make the turn and do both, even better.

There's a lot of graphics, so no swipe. Here's the breakdown for the team personnel though:

Twins: 11 points
Fastest: CF Buxton (30.2 feet per second), SS Jorge Polanco (28.4 feet per second), 2B Brian Dozier (28.1 feet per second)
Slowest: C Jason Castro (25.9 feet per second), 1B Joe Mauer (26.7 feet per second), 3B Miguel Sano (26.9 feet per second)

https://www.mlb.com/news/statcast-ranks-mlbs-fastest-teams/c-267809528

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Lance Lynn isn't that great, my view has always been that he's a harder-throwing version of the usual Twins control/command specialist. Though between getting to face pitchers twice a game and having a bit more fastball, he's been good for a couple more strikeouts per nine than the rest of the Brad Radke Clone Army.

Doesn't matter, exactly. This weird ass off-season has given the Twins the opportunity to do the simplest type of drastic winter improvement for an astonishingly Twins-friendly price. Last year's "playoff" team was a huge stars/scrubs affair, with the scrubs primarily (not exclusively) working on the pitching end.

If you've got a stars and scrubs team and you can project the stars to stay star-like (which is always dicey, but the Twins' lineup is super young) then all you have to do is replace the scrubs with "average" and all of a sudden, you're good. Problem lately is that "average" is really expensive on both the free agent market, but not this winter. Morrison, Lynn, Duke, Rodney, and Reed were all cheap as hell. And Odorizzi was shockingly cheap on the trade market.

No reason to get ahead of ourselves, obviously. But Falvine are pushing the right buttons, I think.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

when I see this post I keep thinking I'm in PTP and its an announcement for a remake starring The Rock and Kevin Hart...

This is obviously a self-serving complaint, but I sort of have a hard time believing that players (even those with only pre-arb financial resources) are really seeking out a drug that a sport utterly indifferent to doping caught Ben Johnson using now 30 years ago. My present doping stance is that testing/suspension is necessary because if it's not illegal it becomes compulsory. So players have to be responsible for what ends up in their bodies. But I have a hard time believing that actual MLB players are walking into foreign pharmacies asking for that Charlie Francis shit. Though I'll happily be corrected on that point by somebody who knows more about this than me.

In order, these are the things that bother me about this:

-Polanco was getting good and I'd have liked to see how the Twins shortstop logjam got worked out in a more organic way, which isn't impossible now but seems less likely.

-I have to read more articles about how many Opening Day shortstops the Twins have had since Cristian Guzman

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Not really, this is bad.

------

12 play and 12 planets are enlighten for all the Aliens to Party and free those on the Sex Planet-maxxx

XBL: trkc21
Twitter: @tyrcasey

It's a half-season of missing information from a player at a really important point in his development. If Gordon just absolutely balls out at Rochester, he may have taken Polanco's job anyhow. But if Polanco still looked like a usable starting shortstop then he's way more tradeable. If Gordon is good-not-great and Escobar is serviceable and Sano's legs hold up so he doesn't need much help at third, then we've got a new, dummer logjam when Polanco comes back.

I really like Eduardo Escobar, but I like him best when he's an incredibly busy bench player. Anything that muddies those waters actually makes the system shortstop depth (feels weird to call it a logjam until there's more than one ready at the same level) less fun and pleasant.

Best case scenario, Escobar hits like he did last year but it remains clear that he'll be needed in a variety of roles once Polanco returns.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Hughes pitching, could wind up determining where he begins the season.

------

12 play and 12 planets are enlighten for all the Aliens to Party and free those on the Sex Planet-maxxx

XBL: trkc21
Twitter: @tyrcasey

4 hits given u (one of which was a HR,) 4 K's, 1 BB.

------

12 play and 12 planets are enlighten for all the Aliens to Party and free those on the Sex Planet-maxxx

XBL: trkc21
Twitter: @tyrcasey

I feel like MLBtv has carried fewer spring training games than usual this year, but it may just be bad luck that I wasn't home for the ones that were aired.

Hughes seems most suited to be a swingman at this point, though I guess playing that role while the team is 4-manning the rotation means that he's really auditioning in case somebody flops. Gibson's probably the most likely candidate for that, but he kind of looked like he turned a corner late last season - not just in results but in approach.

I'm "eh" at best on this one. The new front office has been pretty ruthless about washing their hands of the weird choices of the previous ones, but Hughes was really the only expensive mistake that Ryan made and he's the one that's stuck. That's probably meaningful. I also like a few of the pitchers that were sent to Rochester in deference to Hughes. Duffy and Busenitz aren't perfect, but in the event it comes up I'd much rather have them pitch in higher-leverage bullpen situations than Hughes.

And since I don't see him making the rotation unless Santana takes longer than anticipated to return, that means there's really only one "job" I'm comfortable with Hughes having - pitching garbage innings by volume. That's hardly a recommendation. Though maybe the Twins will be the team to bring back the 100+ inning reliever. I've always sort of wanted that.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Going with the 4 man Odorizzi/Berrios/Gibson/Lynn rotation to start the season.

------

12 play and 12 planets are enlighten for all the Aliens to Party and free those on the Sex Planet-maxxx

XBL: trkc21
Twitter: @tyrcasey

It's a weird place to both be keenly aware that drawing wide-reaching conclusions based on a season opener is a terrible idea and still desperately wanting to do it, but I'm too old to really fight that tension anymore. Blessedly, this game was way too strange to be meaningful.

I will say, though, that in spite of the result I still contest the Grossman-for-Buxton swap. I want Buxton hitting there.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

putting the shift on to begin with

1 out in the 9th of 7-0 game

dude bunts into the shift, gets on base, and the Os actually load up the bases

Twins worked out of it, got the W...but your complaint is dude bunted into the shift...

...then don't f'n put the shift on a$$holes...

SMH

---------------------------------------------------------------

If you can't understand it without an explanation

you can't understand it with an explanation

I wish that the baseball players I like could be cool and normal, but there's a pretty high correlation between being awesome and baseball and acting like a wet-diapered baby once and awhile. Watching Dozier explain it made it worse - though I suspect he understands the problem is that you're not allowed to articulate a call for professional courtesy when the content is "stop trying to win."

It'd be fine if they just left it at an eyeroll. I assume NBA players do that when the opposing team fouls to regain possession even though they're down by enough to know better.

Luckily, the Twins still have Joe Mauer. I'm positive that he doesn't give a shit about this but even if it did, it'd be like "Heck, that was a bit of a headscratcher" and then he'd go watch some Mad About You reruns on VHS.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

when they complain about shit like this? everybody is roasting them.

Are the changes he made in the second half last year sustainable?

He had a good first start this year. What do you expect from him the rest of the year?

Last year's nice run to end the season was pretty noticeable, and I think it was typically attributed to a range of things:

a)different arm slot, the result of taking awhile to internalize some off-season makeover meant to make him healthier and more effective

b)increased slider usage

c)increased four-seam fastball usage

d)much, much worse competition

I didn't really notice item "a". He looked like exactly the same Kyle Gibson from the time the ball came out of his hand to the movement on his pitches. Ordinarily, I want to be a believer in a breakthrough like his for a much more observable reason. A bigger, badder fastball. A new breaking pitch. Etc. I didn't see that here.

I actually did notice item "b" and "c", though mostly in conjunction with each other. His strikeout rate really seemed to climb from a wholly new approach to pitch sequencing. He started throwing a curveball (which existed previously but which he didn't throw often) way more frequently - but not as a strikeout pitch. His existence prior to late 2017 was as a pure sinker/slider type and doing so in classic, predictable Twins fashion: throw sinkers to induce contact early in the count - throw a slider to finish somebody off, though usually for righties to roll over and not to swing over.

Late last season, he basically starting pitching backwards to most batters. He used the curveball (and still the sinker a lot) to set up hitters, and then used the slider (more frequently thrown way outside the zone as a pure chase pitch - there was an article in fangraphs about this) and for the first time since he's been a pro as far as I can remember, a four seam fastball up in the zone to induce swings and misses. It was a new approach and one that seemed to work really well to ambush hitters who were used to the old Kyle Gibson.

The problem, though, is that as long as his pitches aren't demonstrably better in velocity and movement, I pretty much expect hitters to adjust to his new, weirder sequencing. Furthermore, I worry about starts like his one the other day - which was excellent but included a LOT of walks. I don't mind them necessarily, especially because they connote a real change in approach: 2017-2018 Kyle Gibson understands there are worse things than throwing pitches out of the zone, namely - throwing pitches in the zone that are hit really, really hard.

But his stuff still isn't good enough to keep putting guys on base and I don't think he can sustain the success of his new approach without both/either:

1)hitters adjusting
2)walking a lot of guys

Which makes me think that the biggest reason for his 2017 late-season success was the competition. His run and the Twins team run to the playoffs was built on the same thing: an AL Central that was absolute dogshit except for the Indians and (sort of) the Twins. He faced a lot of terrible lineups over that last eight weeks.

I guess the good news is that MLB teams still play pretty heavy divisional schedules even in the new era of constant interleague play, so it's not like Kyle Gibson is going to stop seeing a lot of the White Sox, Tigers, and Royals (who've gotten worse since last year). The league could adjust to Gibson and he'll see a dropoff, but if a huge chunk of the Twins schedule is still three incredibly shitty lineups then he could still be a lot better than the old Kyle Gibson.

But that's probably as far as I'm willing to go. And, unrelated, thanks for asking. It's really fun to talk about baseball again.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

He appears to have some gas in the tank and his health has been good the last few years. Assuming he still wants to play and not just be a full-time Head & Shoulders spokes model, is there a place for him on the Twins roster going forward in a similar role? Or does he have a Paul Molitor-ish second act playing for somebody other than Paul Molitor?

He said this winter that he wants to keep playing and that he has a hard time imagining himself playing elsewhere, but he didn't go so far as to complete that thought - which I guess makes sense since that'd just be bad bargaining. He's an intensely boring human being, but he actually seems genuinely bothered by the years that he hasn't played well. So I think that if 2018 doesn't live up to some standard in his mind then he'll retire - and that standard might be higher than we'd expect.

But they'll probably need him in 2019 and the articles about his post-2018 plans didn't really sound like he had some hard and fast boundaries with respect to role. Kennys Vargas isn't even on the 40-man anymore and those stupid David Ortiz comparisons are finally dying down. Logan Morrison has a team option - though I don't think that's a lock to be exercised unless 2017 Logan Morrison is the real Logan Morrison. And I'm not sure that's the case. Sano is going to have move off of third eventually, but he's holding on there longer than I'd expect. He made a great, surprisingly mobile play last night to end the game after nine innings of playing in the snow.

I think the most likely guess is that they expect to go into 2019 with Sano at third, and a Morrison/Mauer DH/1B split that is a bit more even than it is now. If Sano becomes a health/defensive liability *and* Morrison balls out then Mauer might end up nosed out, but I'm really hoping that's not the case.

How's that for hedging. I'm really nervous about this. Outside of the Twins winning a World Series with Joe Mauer, the thing I want to see most is Mauer becoming a Hall of Famer. If he needs to do some stat collecting with another team to make that happen, I'll be bummed out but ultimately happy if it works. Though now that I've written that, I don't think his HOF case is a collector-case anyhow. Unless your Molitor comparison is even more apt than we think and he manages to add on 1400 hits after he turns 34 because god bless the DH.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

I think it was Call It Anything before last season who pointed out that the Twins route to success was kind of as a poor man's Orioles. Enough offense to bail out an "eh" staff and enough defense to make an "eh" staff look better at times. It's not a bad model in the expanded playoffs era. But I kind of think they may have jumped over the "poor man's" part of that equation. There's not an offensive star here like Manny Machado, but I don't think anybody would be surprised if Miguel Sano posted a season that could match up with one of Machado's best - and the Twins lineup looks a lot deeper than those Orioles ones that made the playoffs over the last half-decade. They're fourth in the AL right now in homeruns and while it's way too early to care about a stat like that, it's not like they've been playing a lot of games in friendly hitting climates over the last week. If Berrios steps up and occupies the just-below-true-ace spot that seems to be his upside, this rotation looks better than the ones Baltimore cobbled together too.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

He still looks like a reliever to me, but it's nice not being a scout and getting to shrug your shoulders about that kind of thing. His delivery is all upper body and that changeup often isn't the fun kind of hard (like Strasburg) but he throws hard all the time and it looks like there's some deception in that delivery too. A lot of those early strikeouts were on fastballs.

In short, he looks like a big pain in the ass to hit. So until he's a reliever, he'll be a fun starter.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

for the rest of 2018?

Santana
Berrios
Odorizzi
Romero
Gibson

Do we need to keep Lynn around?

------

12 play and 12 planets are enlighten for all the Aliens to Party and free those on the Sex Planet-maxxx

XBL: trkc21
Twitter: @tyrcasey

It feels weird being the high man on Lynn though. Unlike Hughes, if he can't start anymore then I think there's something for him to do in the bullpen. But it also seems early to buy on Kyle-Gibson-is-good-now or the durability of that entire group.

None of these guys are pitching deep into games right now. Maybe a six-man rotation isn't the worst idea in the world.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

---------------------------------

So i'm smokin on this cactus, bangin Fat Patrick
hustla til i die baby grindin like a savage
pimp game sweet, breakin ankles and feet
cuz these hoes break they toes til they job complete

H-Town made L.A. paid

How do you FEEEEEEEEEEEL about the Twins' rotation?

Louis Dupre would appreciate my anxiety at turning to myself as an object of study here, but I can't help but get over the disjunction where, if I saw a team that featured an up-and-coming Berrios and Romero in the rotation and had a steady innings eater who ranges from "above average" to "actually quite good" like Ervin Santana, I would be deeply impressed.

But now I'm just in a constant state of wait-and-see. I don't trust it.

Berrios was phenomenal last night, by the way.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

I can't imagine he'll be thrown into the rotation at first, but if he and Erv come back healthy, we've got:

Santana
Berrios
Romero
Gibson
May
Lynn
Hughes?

All as potential starters. Hughes probably isn't coming back to the rotation, but there are six potential starters out there.

------

12 play and 12 planets are enlighten for all the Aliens to Party and free those on the Sex Planet-maxxx

XBL: trkc21
Twitter: @tyrcasey

Was it reliever or starter? It feels like the not-new-anymore regime didn't exactly formulate a strong point of view on the matter that was independent of May's health. And maybe that's too abstract - pitcher health and number of usable pitches are probably the only two factors in a pitcher's role that actually matter. But May keeps falling into seams in reasoning and I don't feel like checking where Falvine stand.

This is probably the time in the post where I yell really loud about bringing back the high-leverage swingman. Like, what if the correct answer was that he never/rarely pitched consecutive games but he could go for 3ish innings 2-3 times a week? In a rotation where our "eh" pitchers have had a ton of trouble getting to six innings and the good ones (Romero and Berrios) need to be handled carefully, a poor man's Mike Marshall seems pretty nice to have.

I also started replying to this a couple days ago when you posted it in order to defend Lance Lynn, but I'm, uh, glad I hesitated on that. He sucks. Lynn and Hughes probably have through mid-June to demonstrate utility to the team before they get treated as sunk costs and are pushed into Lake Bde Maka Ska - which is the first time I've typed that name. It's pretty cool.

The other thing about that mid-June estimation is that there are hypothetically useful rotation options in the minors. Nobody as sexy as Romero, but Gonsalves got bumped up from Chattanooga to Rochester as soon as the weather improved after dominating at the former. He's been fine in three starts at AAA, but he profiles well as a good #4 and the Twins don't have any lefties in the rotation at the moment. Zack Littell made the AAA jump at what seems to be exactly the same time and is occasionally mentioned as an (extremely) poor man's Corey Kluber in terms of repertoire. That comparison seems to mostly exist because Falvey was in Cleveland and Kluber was another slow-burn prospect with an "ehh, fine" fastball who has been successful for not throwing anything, ever straight. SO it's a leap, but Littell does fit the profile of what the new boss is looking for.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Garver was a bat-first catcher through the bottom half of the minors (then paired with glove-first catcher, Stuart Turner - who got Rule 5'd) but his defense grew faster than Turner's bat. He hasn't really hit like some folks expected in the big leagues, but he's been a part timer for his entire time up and, honestly, he's hit more than well enough for a catcher. I'm fine with him starting.

Bobby Wilson looks like the platonic ideal of a catcher. That's pretty much what he's got going for himself.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

He seems like a good guy, and gave the Twins some pretty good seasons followed by what I'm assuming were some pretty painful ones. I hope that if he wants to keep playing that he finds a way to get healthy and make it happen, but in the meantime the 22.6mm the team still owes him isn't a terrible consolation prize.

No corresponding move announced yet.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

but DFA with $22.6m owed seems like a very un-twins thing to do.

what gives?

The PiPress article named Pablo Sandoval and Adrian Gonzalez as the two other biggest dead money contracts out there - and they're both 3-4mm less than Hughes. Josh Hamilton remains the gold standard.

But he's done. Fastball velocity down to 90.5 - and that's in relief so he's really working to keep it in the 90's in short outings. Nobody's swinging and missing, so K/9 is way down. Folks are taking his out-of-zone offerings, so his walks are way up. And the stuff across the plate is getting hit, hard. Best analogy I can think of is Brad Radke in 2006 after he was diagnosed with a fractured shoulder socket and was working at 86-88mph for the entire last two months of the season. Except without the results.

You could sort of see the writing on the wall the last two years, where he's been injured a ton (including having a rib removed for thoracic outlet surgery - which has been really hit-and-miss for pitchers. Matt Harvey did the same thing) and every time back the team has given him the maximum length rehab assignment not because he needed it but because they wanted to buy time before adding him to the roster.

So yeah, eating 22mm is really weird for the Twins, but a team that's been playing below its potential while still hoping to sneak into the playoffs on 85ish wins absolutely can't afford to roster a pitcher who can't get anybody out. And they've probably exhausted the legal and fair roster shenanigan options. I mean, he's a pitcher in his 30's so there's always some gray area stuff where you can "find" an injury, but Hughes has been a good egg his entire tenure in Minnesota. I'm sure the team remembers his refusal to accept a bonus when he came up like two outs short of the 210 inning clause in his contract. Eating the money may be out of character, but not fucking around with a player who's earned front office respect is pretty classic Twins.

The PiPress also noted that the team didn't request a minor league assignment. It would have been Hughes' right to turn that down, and I'm going to guess they didn't offer it because of some prior conversation. In any case, I enjoyed watching him while he was good but it really seems like he's not able to get MLB hitters out now. But he's got a nice nest egg if he wants to get healthy, re-invent himself a bit, and try again.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

This turd of a season (which, even after selling, could conceivably right itself) isn't going to end up beign without bright spots. We mostly know the conventional ones, so let's talk about the weird one: Willians Astudillo.

Astudillo was signed as a minorleague free agent in the offseason, presumably to provide catching depth at Rochester. Literally every single team makes this kind of move and it's never remarkable, even given the high likelihood that these players will actually see time with the big club. You don't need to be a black belt roster noodler to put together the math: catchers get injured and it's a hard position to learn so teams will make sure they have some security. There wasn't any particular reason to think that Astudillo was different than Eric Fryer or whoever.

One of the better beat writers (I want to say Berardino) took the time to dive into Astudillo's minor league record and noticed that he was kind of a free swinger. Which is fine. We got him to crouch behind the plate in an emergency, not to be an offensive threat. Berardino also pointed out that he was a tough strikeout, which is pretty uncommon in the three true outcomes 21st century.

As it turns out, Berardino was kind of underselling the issue. Astudillo doesn't put the ball in play at an impressive rate for the 21st century. He puts it in play like it's the deadball era and the sluggers were the ones who hit the most triples. A quick eyeball says a 5% rate would be extraordinarily high for either BB or K rate for him. His fourteen plate appearances so far this season have been K and BB free, but a recent fangraphs piece noted an interesting uptick in power the last season or so at different milb levels. Fourteen plate appearances isn't enough to observe anything like that against MLB pitching, though fangraphs says to keep track of his increased ability to drive the ball in the air instead of slapping on the ground.

And he's played four positions: 3B, 2B, LF, and CF. Though he's apparently a pretty good defensive catcher - so that will be added back to a usual rotation soon enough.

This... probably isn't important. But it is fun. So, next time you decide to inflict a Twins game on yourself, make sure to keep a "Willians Astudillo never doesn't put the ball in play" watch going.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

So we're out, right? This meager MLB post is now a meager MiLB post?

Miguel Sano got promoted to AAA, apparently the next adventure in his big career makeover. It's been sort of odd because the idea was obviously some kind of reset button on his game, maybe with the best analogy being Roy Halladay's legendary return to Dunedin (was that the Toronto A+ level?) early in his career. But ... games don't get remade like that. Sano is always going to be a low contact, high walk, high power hitter. There's no version of him that was going to come out of this barrelling up everything like Willians Astudillo. So instead the expectations were vague: show a commitment to conditioning, working on defense, quality at-bats, etc. And they (unsolicited, about a week and a half ago) said they were really happy with his progress.

The point of the above dumb spiel is that we don't get to see anything in his batting line that says "oh yeah, Miguel Mejor fixed it" and so we get a .328/.442/.453 performance that ... is pretty okay, I guess. He's clearly putting together better at-bats, driven by a nearly 20% walk rate. But he's not really making more contact, as we can see in a 27% strikeout rate. That's...still too high. And it's not like he's selling out for power, as the .453 SLG indicates. But it's only nineteen games and the instructions were vague and the Twins said that he met their expectations and so, Rochester it is.

I guess we'll see what happens.

So maybe we pop in on the weird shortstop depth, huh?

Nick Gordon remains the least sexy quality prospect in baseball, whaling his way out of Chattanooga and then promptly struggling in his time at Rochester. He'll be fine. Probably.

Wander Javier's missing the whole season with Tommy John surgery. I feel like Twins position players are getting a disproportionate amount of those, but I have nothing to back that up.

But it's not all bad, Royce Lewis earned his way out of Cedar Rapids by basically doing everything right. He posted a .315/.368/.485 line, showing excellent contact (15% K) and basestealing ability (22 out of 26 attempts). I suppose he could have walked more, but we'll figure that out later. In his brief time at Ft. Myers, he's shown a weird amount of power, at .357/.419/.536 and has, so far, shown that he can stick at shortstop. Here's BPro when they ranked him 16th in the mid-season prospect list:

Royce Lewis, SS, Minnesota Twins
Why he’ll succeed: Incredibly athletic, Lewis has potential for five future plus tools. The speed is 70-grade and he has become an efficient base stealer this year at Cedar Rapids. He has also begun to show some of the pop that scouts projected when he was taken no. 1 overall in 2017.

Why he might fail: There is a very high floor to Lewis’ profile, given the speed and advanced bat. However, he is just 19 and physical maturity might necessitate a move away from shortstop. A shift away from the six spot will put additional pressure for continued development of the bat.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

This Bremer/Smalley pairing has really made Dick all wound up about strikeouts. Players that can manage to make hard contact at a higher rate in this high-K environment are absolutely awesome, but he's really pouring his heart into a game where we'd just see more 4-3 putouts instead of strikeouts. It's dumb. Stop being dumb, Dick. Strikeouts are still just outs.

Relatedly, I've really enjoyed Morneau and Hawkins as the guests in the booth but maybe it's time to pair them and see what happens. Go with two color guys like the Harrelson/Stone White Sox except, you know, not horrible.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

The guy on second got there with a two-run double. Like... why? I think I'd be more comfortable with the boomer announcers complaining about the 21st century game if they were a bit more willing to call this bunt out as obviously stupid. You're rallying off a pitcher who's held you scoreless so far and the response is to put on the brakes by giving away an out? If it's that important to get the runner over to third, then split the difference and try to hit the ball somewhere on the right side. At least that has a chance to drive the run home.

I actually wanted to finish this post before the inning ended so I could call it stupid without reference to the eventual consequences. But that didn't happen. Hitter after the bunt popped out in the infield and then Whit Merrifield struck out. Inning over.

Bunting is stupid.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

Lot of corner bats and big right arms in the returns. Nobody worth getting excited about today, but a couple interesting scratch-offs that we may be very excited about in a year. The Pressly trade was particularly lucrative, it seems.

The interest from that one was Jorge Alcala, a right-hander with a 100(ish) mph fastball who still has the ability to start. Jhoan Duran, from the Escobar trade, has a similar profile and actually stepped right in and took a no-hitter through 7 innings in his debut for Cedar Rapids.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad