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Look, our defense is awful. It's genuinely bad—no pass rush, subpar linebackers, and an injury-riddled secondary. Opposing QBs finished the season with a QB rating of 106.5, dead last in the league. The all-time career best is Rodgers at 104.1, meaning that over 16 games, this defense has turned opposing QBs into the composite best QB in NFL history. So Caldwell coaches to minimize the damage they can do by keeping them off the field as much as possible.
In average length (time) of drive, our defense is dead last in the league. We let teams march down the field with impunity. So to mitigate that, our offense tries to hold on to the ball as long as possible. The result? We're #1 in average length (time) of drive on offense. It's the funhouse-mirror image of the defense.
We have a gunslinging QB, skilled receivers, and absolutely no running game. That would normally profile as an offense that either scores quickly, or gives up the ball quickly. More passing = more incomplete passes = more clock stoppages = short drives = tired defense, and our defense is shitty even when well-rested.
So if we "played to our strengths" and just aired it out all day, it would mean frequently putting our shitty defense right back onto the field 90 seconds after giving up a 12-play, 7:00-minute drive. They'd get gassed, and they'd get wrecked. More wrecked, at least.
So Caldwell has us running this offense that maximizes time of possession in an effort to keep the other team's offense off the field. If he can keep the game close until the fourth, he can then leverage our best assets: a QB that can spin a game-winning drive out of nothing, an excellent punter, and an extremely clutch kicker.
I'd been frustrated by his offense for a couple years. We are obviously so much better in the hurry-up and no-huddle, as shown by our 8 fourth-quarter comeback wins this year. In that mode, when we move down the field seemingly at will, fans—myself included—wonder why we don't just play that way from the opening kickoff. ("Why don't they make the whole plane out of black box?")
But if we did, it would mean keeping a talent-deficient defense on the field for long drive after long drive with little chance to rest. It would mean forcing us to win 45-42. We're a good offense, but we're not peak-Brees/Payton-Saints-good. We fuck up too much—penalties, drops—to keep that up for 60 minutes. So Caldwell intentionally suppresses some of the high-octane potential of the offense in order to avoid selling out his defense. It's a good strategy.
Now, there's a difference between the top-level philosophy and in-game decision making—call it strategy vs. tactics. Caldwell is doing a great job strategically, but I won't fault any fan for questioning his tactics. He's definitely too conservative when it comes to challenging calls, and we seem to lose the battle of halftime-adjustments way, way more often than we win it. And yes, running Theo Riddick into the center's ass for 0 yards on every first down is boring. Chicks dig the long ball.
But overall, especially when you factor in how much his players like him, you have to give Caldwell his props. He's doing a really good job. It took me a while to realize it, but he is. He absolutely deserves another year.
My biggest question about him is this: can we win the Super Bowl with him? Can he outcoach and out-gameplan the Belichicks and Carrolls for 3 or 4 weeks in January? I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that he can.
But honestly, we're the Lions. You could GIVE us a Belichick or a Carroll and we'd still fuck it up. We're never going to win, so all that's left is to conduct yourselves with integrity. Caldwell deserves to stay, and yes, he deserves *not* to have to spend his playoff practice week commenting on his job security. It's bullshit, and race absolutely contributes to it. So does the generally low football IQ of fans and media, which keeps them from seeing the type of shit I broke down above. But c'mon, this is America. Michigan's a red state. Of course race matters.
In closing, I support Coach Caldwell, vacant stare and all. __________
YARDS
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