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Subject: "ESPN: Projected 2016-17 records and standings for every NBA team" Previous topic | Next topic
JBoogs
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Wed Aug-24-16 09:45 PM

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"ESPN: Projected 2016-17 records and standings for every NBA team"


  

          

Projected 2016-17 records and standings for every NBA team (Pelton)

How many games will each team win in 2016-17?

How many games will the Golden State Warriors win after adding Kevin Durant to the core of a team that went 73-9 last season? Which teams might jump from the lottery to the playoffs, and who might they replace?

To help answer these questions, here's an early look at 2016-17 NBA projections using ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM).

RPM was developed by Jeremias Engelmann and Steve Ilardi to estimate a player's on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors. When used along with playing time projections, it's proved to be a very accurate predictive tool overall.

Last season, these projections correctly forecast that the Portland Trail Blazers would be more competitive than expected, the Boston Celtics would maintain their second-half success from the year before and the Milwaukee Bucks would fall out of the playoffs. (They also missed on other teams, including the Toronto Raptors emerging as a top threat to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference and the Houston Rockets limping along near .500.) Two years ago, RPM foresaw the rise of the Golden State Warriors.

Like last season, I've put together projected playing time based on a formula that estimates games missed based on the number missed over the past three seasons (adjusted for any offseason injuries/suspensions) and my own guesses at how rotations will shake out.

Most veteran players are rated using the multiyear, predictive version of RPM, adjusted for the typical aging curve. Newcomers to the league and players who played too little for an RPM rating are rated using their projected offensive and defensive rating from my SCHOENE projection system, which incorporates translated performance in the NCAA and professional leagues besides the NBA.

Let's take a look at the results.

Western Conference

1. Golden State Warriors
Projected wins: 66.8 (Summer Forecast: 67-15)

Within the context of the conservative nature of win projections, which tend to be regressed heavily to the mean, a 67-win projection is remarkable. The Warriors' projection is two wins higher than the next best in the seven years I've gone back to do projections using this method: 64.9 for the 2010-11 Miami Heat, who actually won just 58 games because of the time it took their version of the Big Three to build chemistry on the court.

2. San Antonio Spurs
Projected wins: 54.5 (Summer Forecast: 57-25)

It's a huge step downward to second place in the West. With Tim Duncan's retirement and the aging of other core players, the Spurs will be hard-pressed to stay with Golden State in the regular season as they did last season. But RPM still has them comfortably second in the West.

3. Utah Jazz
Projected wins: 47.6 (Summer Forecast: 45-37)

This might seem like a crazy leap for a team that didn't make the playoffs last year, but remember: The Jazz actually had the fifth-best point differential in the West (plus-1.8 PPG). Ordinarily, that would translate into 46 wins, and that was despite injuries (including Dante Exum missing the entire season) and before Utah loaded up with veterans this offseason. The Jazz should be considered the favorites to win the Northwest Division.

4. L.A. Clippers
Projected wins: 46.3 (Summer Forecast: 52-30)

Given the Clippers won 53 games last year without Blake Griffin for much of the season, a seven-win drop would be a surprise. But RPM sees several key players on the wrong side of the aging curve.

5. Houston Rockets
Projected wins: 45.8 (Summer Forecast: 41-41)

RPM projects the Rockets to be a top-five offense next year, but they'll still struggle to reach 45 wins if their defense is worse than an optimistic projection of 16th in the league.

6. Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected wins: 45.6 (Summer Forecast: 44-38)

Even without Durant, RPM forecasts the Thunder in the mix for home-court advantage in the West thanks to star point guard Russell Westbrook and a deep cast of young role players.

7. Portland Trail Blazers
Projected wins: 44.5 (Summer Forecast: 46-36)

After reaching the second round of the playoffs and adding Festus Ezeli and Evan Turner this offseason, the Blazers hope to take the next step in their development. RPM sees them as about the same team as 2015-16, when they won 44 games but finished fifth in a weaker West.

8. Denver Nuggets
Projected wins: 40.4 (Summer Forecast: 34-48)

Quietly, the Nuggets have assembled an intriguing group of young talent (led by RPM favorite Nikola Jokic, projected for plus-5.0 points per 100 possessions) with a few veterans in tow. Even with Danilo Gallinari projected for just 50 games, internal development could be enough to push Denver into surprising playoff contention.

9. Memphis Grizzlies
Projected wins: 39.4 (Summer Forecast: 43-39)

Yes, the Grizzlies strengthened their starting lineup by signing Chandler Parsons, but their bench is incredibly thin and several starters (including Parsons) are major injury risks. Gulp.

10. Sacramento Kings
Projected wins: 37.7 (Summer Forecast: 30-52)

The Kings have one of the biggest discrepancies of any team between their projection in ESPN's summer forecast (30 wins, 13th in the West) and by RPM, which sees Sacramento deep in average talent around DeMarcus Cousins.

11. Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected wins: 37.1 (Summer Forecast: 39-43)

Remember, RPM projections don't factor in coaching, and the arrival of Tom Thibodeau makes the Timberwolves overwhelmingly likely to outperform their projected ranking of 27th in defensive rating.

12. New Orleans Pelicans
Projected wins: 37.0 (Summer Forecast: 35-47)

New Orleans is deeper after shopping for midtier free agents this summer, but RPM projects just three players on the roster to be better than league average: Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday and newcomer Solomon Hill.

13. Dallas Mavericks
Projected wins: 34.3 (Summer Forecast: 40-42)

Might this be the year that coach Rick Carlisle, veteran big man Dirk Nowitzki and a cast of newcomers can't get the Mavericks to the playoffs? RPM says yes, since swapping Parsons (plus-1.3) for Harrison Barnes (minus-0.7) grades as a major downgrade.

14. Phoenix Suns
Projected wins: 29.2 (Summer Forecast: 26-56)

The Suns figure to be a bit more competitive with the return of RPM favorite Eric Bledsoe (plus-2.2) but are still too young to compete in the West.

15. L.A. Lakers
Projected wins: 24.3 (Summer Forecast: 25-57)

Despite their offseason additions of No. 2 pick Brandon Ingram and veterans Luol Deng and Timofey Mozgov, RPM has the Lakers with the league's fewest projected wins.


How will the East shake out in 2016-17?
Eastern Conference

1. Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected wins: 52.1 (Summer Forecast: 57-25)

While the Cavaliers are still solidly tops in the East, their projection is down from last year's 57 wins because RPM takes a dim view of Kyrie Irving's defense and considers Matthew Dellavedova (plus-1.2 projection) a considerable loss as Irving's backup. Note that this projection assumes J.R. Smith ultimately re-signs in Cleveland.

2. Boston Celtics
Projected wins: 49.8 (Summer Forecast: 51-31)

Last year, RPM nailed the Celtics' 48-win finish, though the Raptors jumped ahead of Boston to take second in the East. Now, RPM sees the Celtics taking a modest step forward with the addition of Al Horford.

3. Toronto Raptors
Projected wins: 48.8 (Summer Forecast: 51-31)

After getting career years from guards DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, the Raptors are likely to regress to the pack this year, but fans can take solace in Toronto having outperformed its RPM projection each of the past three seasons.

4. Detroit Pistons
Projected wins: 47.5 (Summer Forecast: 45-37)

While most of the East's middle class took a step backward this offseason, the Pistons should improve by virtue of upgrading at backup point guard and center, and RPM sees them as the third team in a tier with Boston and Toronto.

5. Washington Wizards
Projected wins: 41.4 (Summer Forecast: 41-41)

There's a big gap between the top four in the East and a pack of teams projected fifth through about 11th. The Wizards lead that group after going 18-13 after last year's All-Star break.

6. Charlotte Hornets
Projected wins: 41.0 (Summer Forecast: 43-39)

Though the return of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (plus-2.0) should be a boost, RPM doesn't like the Hornets' new backup backcourt of Ramon Sessions (minus-2.4) and Marco Belinelli (minus-3.7).

7. Milwaukee Bucks
Projected wins: 40.9 (Summer Forecast: 39-43)

The Bucks have oscillated between wildly under- and overperforming projections. If that trend holds, this should be the year for exceeding expectations, and RPM views both Dellavedova and Mirza Teletovic (minus-0.6) as upgrades.

8. Indiana Pacers
Projected wins: 38.9 (Summer Forecast: 45-37)

By virtue of having one of the East's top players in Paul George and a promising youngster in Myles Turner, the Pacers are getting contender buzz in the East. RPM is not so optimistic, viewing the swap of George Hill (plus-0.8) for Jeff Teague (minus-0.6) as a downgrade.

9. Atlanta Hawks
Projected wins: 38.6 (Summer Forecast: 44-38)

RPM has had a tough time forecasting the Hawks, pegging Atlanta for near-.500 records each of the past two seasons, when the Hawks have actually finished second and fourth in the East. This time, Atlanta may have to beat its projection to make the playoffs.

10. Miami Heat
Projected wins: 38.3 (Summer Forecast: 36-46)


Even with Chris Bosh in the lineup, the Heat may have a tough time making the playoffs after losing Luol Deng, Joe Johnson and Dwyane Wade. Without Bosh, Miami's projection drops to 35.2 wins and 12th in the East.

11. Chicago Bulls
Projected wins: 37.8 (Summer Forecast: 40-42)

RPM doesn't view adding Wade (minus-1.3) and Rajon Rondo (minus-1.4) as upgrades for Chicago, and that's before even taking the fit issues they create into account.

12. Orlando Magic
Projected wins: 36.2 (Summer Forecast: 35-47)

The Magic spent big on free agents D.J. Augustin (minus-1.6) and Jeff Green (minus-2.1), neither of whom RPM sees helping Orlando much on the court this season.

13. New York Knicks
Projected wins: 34.7 (Summer Forecast: 40-42)

The Knicks would certainly be disappointed if they improved just three wins after spending freely this summer, but RPM rates Derrick Rose (minus-2.3) as a replacement-level contributor at this point and is skeptical of New York's weak bench.

14. Brooklyn Nets
Projected wins: 28.8 (Summer Forecast: 20-62)

A full season from second-year wing Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (plus-1.2), along with improved play at point guard with Jeremy Lin (minus-0.3), should make the Nets a bit more competitive this season.

15. Philadelphia 76ers
Projected wins: 24.5 (Summer Forecast: 20-62)

Even with conservative projections for rookies Ben Simmons (minus-1.9) and Joel Embiid (minus-1.4), the Sixers figure to take a massive step forward this season despite still being projected for the East's worst record.

  

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Topic Outline
Subject Author Message Date ID
i've got utah top 4ish as well. buying their stock big time.
Aug 24th 2016
1
Completely agreed.
Aug 25th 2016
3
Cavs record: DON'T CARE
Aug 24th 2016
2
lol...right?!?!? gotta play the same games no matter what.
Aug 25th 2016
5
Playoffs?
Aug 25th 2016
4
I got Det as the 2 seed in the ec
Aug 25th 2016
7
      I think it'll be Boston
Aug 25th 2016
10
           Pistons will be better...they were like 17-9 after trading for tobais
Aug 25th 2016
11
           tor-bos-det is a tier imo. i have them all pretty even.
Aug 25th 2016
16
                knicks stay healthy, they in that tier too...
Aug 25th 2016
18
                     cmon.
Aug 25th 2016
36
           I think the Pacers will be better than people think
Aug 25th 2016
13
           i don't know...they'll be better offensively for sure
Aug 25th 2016
14
           Ill bet you $1000 the bulls dont finish ahead of the Pistons
Aug 26th 2016
47
                wowsers.
Aug 26th 2016
49
                lmao...you act like I'm saying it definitively
Aug 29th 2016
64
                How that bet looking?
Nov 26th 2016
66
                     Reggie ALREADY missed 15 games aka bet is off nm
Nov 26th 2016
67
                          I know...but he never came back to confirm it anyway
Nov 27th 2016
70
Ohhhh. more data to legitimate the anomalous greatness of Kang?
Aug 25th 2016
6
It's going to be a long...
Aug 25th 2016
8
got damn the East is a$$ cheeks
Aug 25th 2016
9
what's so great about the west, after the top two?
Aug 25th 2016
15
      yeah both conferences are doo-doo
Aug 25th 2016
19
This Celtics love fest has to stop. I don't see it.
Aug 25th 2016
12
RE: This Celtics love fest has to stop. I don't see it.
Aug 25th 2016
21
This has them winning about 2 more games next year.
Aug 25th 2016
32
Is 2nd in the east really a "love fest"?
Aug 25th 2016
34
Sounds about right
Aug 25th 2016
17
i doubt this:
Aug 25th 2016
22
      they are practically team usa...even if they play like crap, they should
Aug 25th 2016
24
      RE: i doubt this:
Aug 25th 2016
26
           Naturally you're going to
Aug 25th 2016
30
                is Bogut for half a game and barnes>>>durant and zaza on the boards
Aug 25th 2016
35
                We shall see.
Aug 26th 2016
40
                     So what do you think happens? They struggle in the regular season?
Aug 26th 2016
41
                          Honestly, I have no clue.
Aug 26th 2016
42
                               Ok i was just trying to understand bc it feels like you are nitpicking
Aug 26th 2016
43
                                    Golden State's depth
Aug 26th 2016
45
                                         2 things:
Aug 26th 2016
46
                                              pretty much...speights and ezeli couldn't get tick in the finals even
Aug 26th 2016
48
                                              And Ezeli getting tick is one of the big factors that cost the Dubs Game...
Aug 26th 2016
51
                                              100% - plus the bench will have greater margin for error
Aug 26th 2016
53
                Dula and Cenario pretty much covered it. But to reiterate:
Aug 26th 2016
50
                     man i can still see them getting to 70 if they sat one of the big 4
Aug 26th 2016
52
                          I think it will all depend how hot they come out of the gate
Aug 26th 2016
54
                               Who in the West
Aug 26th 2016
55
                                    top 4? barring injuries they should be a #1 seed....if not something
Aug 26th 2016
57
                                    Dubs are going to go for #1 overall seed no matter what
Aug 26th 2016
58
                                         as it should be...these dudes are all still young.
Aug 26th 2016
59
Nets will end up closer to 35 wins
Aug 25th 2016
20
Good cysage there Shawn! lol
Aug 25th 2016
23
Yep, like I always say
Aug 25th 2016
27
      I don't know. They barely even have a bench.
Aug 25th 2016
39
lol chill.
Aug 25th 2016
25
Do you want Lin to remain in Brooklyn?
Aug 25th 2016
28
      No clue yet
Aug 25th 2016
37
           You've put a lot of thought
Aug 26th 2016
56
the Lakers aren't ready to contend anyway, I'd rather they be horrible a...
Aug 25th 2016
29
Trust the West Coast Process?
Aug 25th 2016
31
if you can't land the big free agents you gotta suck long enough to get....
Aug 25th 2016
33
Nawwwwww man. We've had enough.
Aug 26th 2016
44
From young legend to escapegoat (c) 'Rie
Aug 25th 2016
38
No fucking way the Sixers will be worst than the fucking Nets
Aug 28th 2016
60
we won 10 games
Aug 28th 2016
61
And the BK Gnats gave us 2 of those 10 Ws. Theyre made for bitchslapping
Aug 28th 2016
62
yeah i think sixers get to 25-26 at least and think nets will be closer
Aug 29th 2016
63
Lakers on that tank shit
Aug 29th 2016
65
i didn't expect the Lakers to be this good quite yet, BUT
Nov 26th 2016
68
stat nerds have a really weird thing with the Utah Jazz
Nov 27th 2016
69
They stay injured, especially Favors
Nov 27th 2016
71

dula dibiasi
Member since Apr 05th 2004
21925 posts
Wed Aug-24-16 10:49 PM

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1. "i've got utah top 4ish as well. buying their stock big time."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

i loved their summer. brought in quality vets (george hill, boris diaw, joe johnson) on value contracts who fit right into what they do.

they're young, long, athletic, have depth at every position, they defend and they're extremely well-coached. i'm expecting a nice leap.

___

it is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. - sherlock holmes

  

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Premiere
Member since Sep 02nd 2005
2177 posts
Thu Aug-25-16 12:19 AM

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3. "Completely agreed."
In response to Reply # 1


  

          

Maybe can even push GS to 6 or 7 in a second-round series, or knock off a higher-seeded Spurs or even the Clippers. They look so deep and rich in talent, with three guys who might be top 25-30 players next year. That George Hill pickup really set them up. Favors will have to keep hitting his midrange jumper and being a capable playmaker as the roll man, things I'm a little shaky on, but if their offense takes the spike I'm expecting, they'll be damn good this year.

  

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Kira
Member since Nov 14th 2004
28846 posts
Wed Aug-24-16 11:43 PM

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2. "Cavs record: DON'T CARE"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

Rest everybody in hopes of earning the privilege of a playoff berth. Bron needs to start adjusting to the Tim Duncan rest schedule if he's going to perform in the playoffs.

I'm partying all season out of obligation to the Cavs.

  

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Basaglia
Member since Nov 30th 2004
49463 posts
Thu Aug-25-16 09:00 AM

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5. "lol...right?!?!? gotta play the same games no matter what. "
In response to Reply # 2


  

          

____________________________________________________


Steph: I was just fooling about

Kyrie: I wasn't.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8OWNspU_yE

  

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auragin_boi
Member since Aug 01st 2003
20939 posts
Thu Aug-25-16 08:55 AM

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4. "Playoffs?"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

According to their summer forecast, these are the playoffs next year:

>Western Conference
>
>1. Golden State Warriors (67-15)
>5. Houston Rockets (41-41)

>4. Portland Trail Blazers (46-36)
>5. Utah Jazz (45-37)

>2. San Antonio Spurs (57-25)
>7. Memphis Grizzlies (43-39)

>3. L.A. Clippers (52-30)
>6. Oklahoma City Thunder (44-38)

I personally think the Wolves will sneak into either 7th or 8th with about 44 wins but everything else looks right. But given this field:

Warriors 4-1
Blazers 4-3
Spurs 4-1 Gasol bowl playoffs
Clippers 4-3

2nd round
Warriors over Blazers 4-1
Spurs over Clippers 4-3

WCF
Warriors over Spurs 4-2

>Eastern Conference
>
>1. Cleveland Cavaliers (57-25)
>8. Washington Wizards (41-41)

>4. Atlanta Hawks (44-38) <--Division winner)
>5. Indiana Pacers (45-37)

>2. Boston Celtics (51-31)
>7. Charlotte Hornets (43-39)

>3. Toronto Raptors (51-31)
>6. Detroit Pistons (45-37)


Though I think they are wrong about Mil, Chi and NY (I think ATL, Detroit and the Wiz will be most vulnerable with at least 2 of them missing the playoffs) if I had to pick from this field:

Cavs 4-0
Pacers 4-2
Celtics 4-3 (tough series, especially is MKG is healthy)
Pistons 4-3 (Yup, upset, t.dot's time is up IMO)

2nd rd
Cavs 4-2 over Pacers
Celtics 4-2 over Pistons

ECF
Cavs over Celtics 4-2

Finals
Warriors vs Cavs = 4-2 Warriors

____________

  

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Cenario
Member since Aug 24th 2005
59181 posts
Thu Aug-25-16 09:21 AM

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7. "I got Det as the 2 seed in the ec"
In response to Reply # 4


  

          

-The Knicks’ coaching search still includes a lone frontrunner, Kurt Rambis, whose qualifications for the position include a strong relationship with Jackson and a willingness to take the job.

  

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auragin_boi
Member since Aug 01st 2003
20939 posts
Thu Aug-25-16 10:31 AM

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10. "I think it'll be Boston"
In response to Reply # 7


  

          

I think 3-8 is gonna be REAL tight but Boston and Cle are the top two seeds.

I could see the east being like

3-Toronto (46-36)
4-Indy (45-37)
5-NY (45-37)
6-Chicago (45-37)
7-Det (44-38)
8-MIL/ATL/CHA (43-39)

____________

  

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Cenario
Member since Aug 24th 2005
59181 posts
Thu Aug-25-16 10:47 AM

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11. "Pistons will be better...they were like 17-9 after trading for tobais"
In response to Reply # 10


  

          

last season. Played Cle pretty well in the playoffs too.

Think they'll be more like 50-52 wins along with Bos and Toronto

We'll see tho

-The Knicks’ coaching search still includes a lone frontrunner, Kurt Rambis, whose qualifications for the position include a strong relationship with Jackson and a willingness to take the job.

  

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dula dibiasi
Member since Apr 05th 2004
21925 posts
Thu Aug-25-16 12:41 PM

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16. "tor-bos-det is a tier imo. i have them all pretty even."
In response to Reply # 11


  

          

and a significant cut above the next group.

___

it is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. - sherlock holmes

  

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Cenario
Member since Aug 24th 2005
59181 posts
Thu Aug-25-16 01:01 PM

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18. "knicks stay healthy, they in that tier too..."
In response to Reply # 16


  

          

but they won't, so they not.

-The Knicks’ coaching search still includes a lone frontrunner, Kurt Rambis, whose qualifications for the position include a strong relationship with Jackson and a willingness to take the job.

  

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dula dibiasi
Member since Apr 05th 2004
21925 posts
Thu Aug-25-16 02:38 PM

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36. "cmon."
In response to Reply # 18


  

          

don't play yaself © khaled

___

it is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. - sherlock holmes

  

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Lach
Charter member
44326 posts
Thu Aug-25-16 11:41 AM

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13. "I think the Pacers will be better than people think"
In response to Reply # 10


  

          

Wouldn't shock me if they grabbed a 2-3 seed.

  

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Cenario
Member since Aug 24th 2005
59181 posts
Thu Aug-25-16 12:34 PM

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14. "i don't know...they'll be better offensively for sure"
In response to Reply # 13


  

          

but will be pretty sus on defense.

-The Knicks’ coaching search still includes a lone frontrunner, Kurt Rambis, whose qualifications for the position include a strong relationship with Jackson and a willingness to take the job.

  

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cgonz00cc
Member since Aug 01st 2002
35259 posts
Fri Aug-26-16 10:57 AM

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47. "Ill bet you $1000 the bulls dont finish ahead of the Pistons"
In response to Reply # 10


  

          

And another $100 for every game difference in the records

WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE

  

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Cenario
Member since Aug 24th 2005
59181 posts
Fri Aug-26-16 12:29 PM

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49. "wowsers."
In response to Reply # 47


  

          

-The Knicks’ coaching search still includes a lone frontrunner, Kurt Rambis, whose qualifications for the position include a strong relationship with Jackson and a willingness to take the job.

  

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auragin_boi
Member since Aug 01st 2003
20939 posts
Mon Aug-29-16 08:41 AM

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64. "lmao...you act like I'm saying it definitively"
In response to Reply # 47


  

          

This is all a guessing game. I'd be no more surprised if the Pistons won 50 games and the Bulls won 35 than if the Bulls won 45 and the Pistons won 44.

If it was something I felt strongly about, I'd take your bet.

But you acting like Detroit was world beating last year.

I mean:

Detroit 44-38
Chicago 42-40

And the best player on a team that went 48-34 is now on our team.

I tell you what though...since I'm less definitive on it, I'll take a lesser bet:

$200 for best record, $50 for every game difference.

1 Caveat, if Drummond/Jackson or Wade/Butler get a major injury (let's define major as 15+ consecutive games) bet is off.

Bet?

____________

  

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auragin_boi
Member since Aug 01st 2003
20939 posts
Sat Nov-26-16 01:08 PM

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66. "How that bet looking?"
In response to Reply # 47


  

          

____________

  

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FILF
Member since Jun 01st 2007
20180 posts
Sat Nov-26-16 04:40 PM

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67. "Reggie ALREADY missed 15 games aka bet is off nm"
In response to Reply # 66


  

          

WHAT'S GOOD *****? What's REALLY good?!?!????!!! Ha HA!
http://40.media.tumblr.com/d8e2daf9f3f37244cd05436bcdf05973/tumblr_mt4qibKq4c1rgam01o1_1280.png

  

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auragin_boi
Member since Aug 01st 2003
20939 posts
Sun Nov-27-16 04:26 PM

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70. "I know...but he never came back to confirm it anyway"
In response to Reply # 67


  

          

____________

  

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Vex_id
Charter member
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Thu Aug-25-16 09:01 AM

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6. "Ohhhh. more data to legitimate the anomalous greatness of Kang?"
In response to Reply # 0


          

"Well our data signifies that - statistically - there's no way the Cavs should beat the Warriors should they meet in the Finals" ~Nate SilverSpoons circa 2015

Have you apologized to Lebron James yet?

-->

  

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murph71
Member since Sep 15th 2005
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Thu Aug-25-16 09:23 AM

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8. "It's going to be a long..."
In response to Reply # 0


          




....fuckin' season......

GOAT of his era......long live Prince.....God is alive....

  

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Stadiq
Member since Dec 21st 2005
4878 posts
Thu Aug-25-16 10:18 AM

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9. "got damn the East is a$$ cheeks"
In response to Reply # 0


          


Makes this sh!t completely boring.

L U L Z at the teams after the Cavs.

Worst conference in history. Easy.

  

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dula dibiasi
Member since Apr 05th 2004
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Thu Aug-25-16 12:39 PM

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15. "what's so great about the west, after the top two?"
In response to Reply # 9


  

          

the only difference imo is the west has 2 contenders while the east has 1.

beyond that, the second tier east teams (raps, Cs, pistons) are just as good as the ones out west (clipps, rox, jazz, okc)

the conferences are as close as they've been in a while.




>
>Makes this sh!t completely boring.
>
>L U L Z at the teams after the Cavs.
>
>Worst conference in history. Easy.

___

it is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. - sherlock holmes

  

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Cenario
Member since Aug 24th 2005
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Thu Aug-25-16 01:03 PM

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19. "yeah both conferences are doo-doo "
In response to Reply # 15


  

          

its the superteams.

-The Knicks’ coaching search still includes a lone frontrunner, Kurt Rambis, whose qualifications for the position include a strong relationship with Jackson and a willingness to take the job.

  

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TheRealBillyOcean
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Thu Aug-25-16 10:54 AM

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12. "This Celtics love fest has to stop. I don't see it."
In response to Reply # 0


          

<---https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01DL9AVTQ

  

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ShawndmeSlanted
Member since Oct 30th 2004
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21. "RE: This Celtics love fest has to stop. I don't see it."
In response to Reply # 12


  

          

Right I see them in roughly the same position as last year. Which isn't to say they can't be 2 seed. Last year it was close after cle/tor, but anointing them automatically to 2 - don't see it.

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
25919 posts
Thu Aug-25-16 02:27 PM

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32. "This has them winning about 2 more games next year."
In response to Reply # 21


          

I'd like to think it's not that crazy to believe that Horford might make them AT LEAST two games better.

The stats don't like the Raptors as much, haven't come around on Detroit, and IMO underestimate Indiana.

But it's a silly stat based system. With different stats mixed and matched and guesses made at playing time.

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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pretentious username
Member since Jun 18th 2010
12493 posts
Thu Aug-25-16 02:30 PM

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34. "Is 2nd in the east really a "love fest"?"
In response to Reply # 12


  

          

they added Horford. That's enough to think they'll inch past the Raptors.

  

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mrhood75
Member since Dec 06th 2004
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Thu Aug-25-16 01:01 PM

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17. "Sounds about right"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

At some point, probably early in the season, the Dubs are going to lose a few games in a row and there will be a lot of "ZOMG! Signing Durant was a mistake!!!! Chemistry issues!!!1!!1!!111" articles and think pieces. Those will be dumb.

I will also guess that the Bulls will get more than 38/39 wins.

-----------------

www.albumism.com

Checkin' Our Style, Return To Zero:

https://www.mixcloud.com/returntozero/

  

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dula dibiasi
Member since Apr 05th 2004
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Thu Aug-25-16 01:12 PM

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22. "i doubt this:"
In response to Reply # 17


  

          

>At some point, probably early in the season, the Dubs are
>going to lose a few games in a row and there will be a lot of
>"ZOMG! Signing Durant was a mistake!!!! Chemistry
>issues!!!1!!1!!111" articles and think pieces. Those will be
>dumb.

i think his integration will be smooth as 10 year old bourbon. they'll hit the ground running and won't look back.

___

it is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. - sherlock holmes

  

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Cenario
Member since Aug 24th 2005
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Thu Aug-25-16 01:37 PM

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24. "they are practically team usa...even if they play like crap, they should"
In response to Reply # 22


  

          

beat 95% of the league easily.

-The Knicks’ coaching search still includes a lone frontrunner, Kurt Rambis, whose qualifications for the position include a strong relationship with Jackson and a willingness to take the job.

  

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mrhood75
Member since Dec 06th 2004
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26. "RE: i doubt this:"
In response to Reply # 22


  

          


>i think his integration will be smooth as 10 year old bourbon.
>they'll hit the ground running and won't look back.

I generally agree. But if, say, they lose the opening game to the Spurs (it could happen), I expect to see a lot of those annoying think pieces. Or, on their second road trip of the year, they play Toronto, Boston, the Bucks, and the Pacers. I could see them losing two, possibly three of those games (it could happen). I certainly would expect the obnoxious think pieces if they lose to the Raptors and the Celtics back to back to start the trip.

But I won't lie, in general, I look at the schedule. And don't see many losses. 82-0, baby! 98-0! Can't a damn thang stop us!!!!!!111!!!

-----------------

www.albumism.com

Checkin' Our Style, Return To Zero:

https://www.mixcloud.com/returntozero/

  

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Numba_33
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30. "Naturally you're going to "
In response to Reply # 26


  

          

be more optimistic than me in this regard, but defense and rebounding with that line-up raises some concerns for me. And I have to assume Kerr will scale things back in terms of trying to win every game since Curry looked like he was less than himself in the playoffs. I dunno if it was fully based on health since he also committed some terrible turnovers in the playoffs, but I have to think Kerr and the coaching staff will want Curry to get more rest during the regular season.

"Sean sparks like John Starks, nah, Sean ball like John Wall" - Rest In Power Forever Sean Price.

  

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Cenario
Member since Aug 24th 2005
59181 posts
Thu Aug-25-16 02:36 PM

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35. "is Bogut for half a game and barnes>>>durant and zaza on the boards"
In response to Reply # 30


  

          

and defensively?

-The Knicks’ coaching search still includes a lone frontrunner, Kurt Rambis, whose qualifications for the position include a strong relationship with Jackson and a willingness to take the job.

  

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Numba_33
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40. "We shall see."
In response to Reply # 35


  

          

I don't have any confidence Zaza Pachullia will do much of anything since were are in 2016 and will leave the bulk of the heavy lifting on the defensive and rebounding effort to Durant and Draymond Green. If they can hold down that fort, along with having to play key parts on the offensive end of things, kudos to them.

"Sean sparks like John Starks, nah, Sean ball like John Wall" - Rest In Power Forever Sean Price.

  

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Cenario
Member since Aug 24th 2005
59181 posts
Fri Aug-26-16 09:01 AM

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41. "So what do you think happens? They struggle in the regular season?"
In response to Reply # 40


  

          

get knocked out in the wester conf playoffs, lose again in the finals?

-The Knicks’ coaching search still includes a lone frontrunner, Kurt Rambis, whose qualifications for the position include a strong relationship with Jackson and a willingness to take the job.

  

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Numba_33
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42. "Honestly, I have no clue."
In response to Reply # 41


  

          

This year's line up is so different from their normal line-up, so I honestly can't call it. The lack of size and depth bothers me a little bit since I'm someone that likes solid defensive effort, but time will tell. Having solid defense will matter in a seven game playoff series, but out West only the Clippers and the Spurs strike me as teams with size that can challenge to Warriors based on what I'm think about in terms of rosters.

Pertaining to the regular season, I have to imagine Kerr will look to rest Curry a lot more than he last year. If and when the Warriors struggle in the regular season, I can't imagine it'll be that big a deal since it's to be expected.

"Sean sparks like John Starks, nah, Sean ball like John Wall" - Rest In Power Forever Sean Price.

  

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Cenario
Member since Aug 24th 2005
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Fri Aug-26-16 09:56 AM

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43. "Ok i was just trying to understand bc it feels like you are nitpicking"
In response to Reply # 42


  

          

at their weaknesses (which every nba championship team has had) when they basically traded barnes/bogut for zaza/durant. So even if they slipped on the boards and defensively (which i don't think they did) they are light years better on offense.

I expect them to be right back in the finals this year. Unless you're saying you expect them to be worse than last year, you aren't really saying much. Cavs team was very flawed last season and they still won the chip.

-The Knicks’ coaching search still includes a lone frontrunner, Kurt Rambis, whose qualifications for the position include a strong relationship with Jackson and a willingness to take the job.

  

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Numba_33
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45. "Golden State's depth "
In response to Reply # 43


  

          

made them an interesting team to watch the past two years, at least for me. That's the main reason I selfishly don't like the Durant move; the roster is drastically shortened. I guess with the lack of dominant big men in the league, them not having the option to go big isn't that big of a loss. In a seven game play off series, getting consistent stops is still key though. Will remain to be seen if they can pull it off with the current roster.

"Sean sparks like John Starks, nah, Sean ball like John Wall" - Rest In Power Forever Sean Price.

  

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dula dibiasi
Member since Apr 05th 2004
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Fri Aug-26-16 10:25 AM

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46. "2 things:"
In response to Reply # 45


  

          

i think GS's loss of depth is being overstated. their key bench guys (iggy and shawn) are still around. the guys they lost -- leandrinho, ezeli, sp8z -- are replaceable parts imo.

also, you're undervaluing pachulia. he's coming off a career year in dallas and is essentially the same age as bogut. that swap is virtually a wash.

___

it is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. - sherlock holmes

  

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Cenario
Member since Aug 24th 2005
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48. "pretty much...speights and ezeli couldn't get tick in the finals even"
In response to Reply # 46


  

          

after bogut was gone. Barbosa was the 3rd wing off the bench.

Besides the need for depth is lessened when you add a top 3 player in the league to replace harrison buns.

We're really sitting here talking about the dubs 9-12 players?

-The Knicks’ coaching search still includes a lone frontrunner, Kurt Rambis, whose qualifications for the position include a strong relationship with Jackson and a willingness to take the job.

  

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mrhood75
Member since Dec 06th 2004
44719 posts
Fri Aug-26-16 12:40 PM

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51. "And Ezeli getting tick is one of the big factors that cost the Dubs Game..."
In response to Reply # 48


  

          

Man... I'm still pissed about that.

-----------------

www.albumism.com

Checkin' Our Style, Return To Zero:

https://www.mixcloud.com/returntozero/

  

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LA2Philly
Member since Oct 18th 2004
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Fri Aug-26-16 12:56 PM

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53. "100% - plus the bench will have greater margin for error"
In response to Reply # 46


  

          

because the W's starting 5 (or 4 + 1, whatever you want to call it lol) will be operating at a redline that no other team can come close to matching, resulting in even more significant leads than last year. Further, they now have another on the ball play-maker in KD who can be the focal point in PnR allowing for Steph to get even more rest off the ball and giving Kerr another option if Steph is pressing too much when he does have the ball.

---------------------------------
<--The drought is over

"have fun reveling in your pettiness tho" (C) Dula summing up 98% of OKS

"I didnt finish a damn thing...matter of fact I jerked off after she left."
-Kobe speaking to investigators

L D E A

  

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mrhood75
Member since Dec 06th 2004
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50. "Dula and Cenario pretty much covered it. But to reiterate:"
In response to Reply # 30


  

          

1. The Warriors defensive issues have always been overstated. The only defensive stud we lost was Bogut, and he only played 20 to 25 minutes a game. Barnes was good, but not any sort of all-timer. And Ezeli could well continue to fall apart, health-wise.

2. Durant, ZaZa, and Green will be fine on the boards.

3. Any depth issues are also overstated. Iggy and Livingston are back. If McGee keeps his head out of his ass, that's a solid addition. Looney is on a come up. We'll see what the rest of the young players turn into.

Yeah, this isn't a perfect team, but none are. And it's looking really damn good on first blush. The only real cause for concern is health.

>And I have to assume Kerr will scale things back in terms of
>trying to win every game since Curry looked like he was less
>than himself in the playoffs. I dunno if it was fully based on
>health since he also committed some terrible turnovers in the
>playoffs, but I have to think Kerr and the coaching staff will
>want Curry to get more rest during the regular season.

I agree with this part. The coaching stuff is going to give Curry a lot more rest during the season. Same with Durant, who has had injury issues as well. That's why I've always expected their win total to be in the mid 60s this season. 65 to 67 sounds about right. And people will still complain that they underperformed.

-----------------

www.albumism.com

Checkin' Our Style, Return To Zero:

https://www.mixcloud.com/returntozero/

  

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Cenario
Member since Aug 24th 2005
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52. "man i can still see them getting to 70 if they sat one of the big 4"
In response to Reply # 50


  

          

every game lol.

The biggest factor in how many wins they finish with is probably how close the spurs/clips are in the standings.

-The Knicks’ coaching search still includes a lone frontrunner, Kurt Rambis, whose qualifications for the position include a strong relationship with Jackson and a willingness to take the job.

  

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mrhood75
Member since Dec 06th 2004
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54. "I think it will all depend how hot they come out of the gate"
In response to Reply # 52


  

          

IF they lose a few early, Kerr will ease up and make sure everyone rests throughout the season, especially on back-to-backs.

But I agree, the Spurs playing so well last year is a big part of what motivated the coaching staff to make sure the played to win every night.

-----------------

www.albumism.com

Checkin' Our Style, Return To Zero:

https://www.mixcloud.com/returntozero/

  

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Numba_33
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55. "Who in the West"
In response to Reply # 54


  

          

will Golden State need home court advantage against in the playoffs? The regular season this year should mainly focus on playoff seeding. I'm hoping Kerr and the coaching staff won't try to chase 70+ wins since outside of getting in the record books again, it'll be pointless and could lead to more harm than good. Without putting serious thought into the matter, I'm guessing finishing with a top four seed is all that'll matter, but I could be wrong.

"Sean sparks like John Starks, nah, Sean ball like John Wall" - Rest In Power Forever Sean Price.

  

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Cenario
Member since Aug 24th 2005
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57. "top 4? barring injuries they should be a #1 seed....if not something"
In response to Reply # 55


  

          

is wrong.

Kerr isn't going to be resting these dudes to the point that they are needlessly losing games. They still will play low 30 minutes.

-The Knicks’ coaching search still includes a lone frontrunner, Kurt Rambis, whose qualifications for the position include a strong relationship with Jackson and a willingness to take the job.

  

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mrhood75
Member since Dec 06th 2004
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Fri Aug-26-16 02:46 PM

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58. "Dubs are going to go for #1 overall seed no matter what"
In response to Reply # 55


  

          

Kerr will want home court advantage throughout the play-offs for obvious reasons. Whether it takes 60 or 67 or 70 wins to get that, that's going to be the aim.

-----------------

www.albumism.com

Checkin' Our Style, Return To Zero:

https://www.mixcloud.com/returntozero/

  

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Cenario
Member since Aug 24th 2005
59181 posts
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59. "as it should be...these dudes are all still young."
In response to Reply # 58


  

          

they will be going for and likely getting that 1 seed.

>Kerr will want home court advantage throughout the play-offs
>for obvious reasons. Whether it takes 60 or 67 or 70 wins to
>get that, that's going to be the aim.

-The Knicks’ coaching search still includes a lone frontrunner, Kurt Rambis, whose qualifications for the position include a strong relationship with Jackson and a willingness to take the job.

  

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ShawndmeSlanted
Member since Oct 30th 2004
43353 posts
Thu Aug-25-16 01:09 PM

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20. "Nets will end up closer to 35 wins"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

If they stay healthy. Still not a playoff team though.

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

  

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auragin_boi
Member since Aug 01st 2003
20939 posts
Thu Aug-25-16 01:30 PM

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23. "Good cysage there Shawn! lol"
In response to Reply # 20


  

          

35?

____________

  

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ShawndmeSlanted
Member since Oct 30th 2004
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Thu Aug-25-16 02:14 PM

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27. "Yep, like I always say"
In response to Reply # 23


  

          

You can win a good number of games in the NBA when you play together, plays hard, and hustle. I'll have to wait til training camp to see if this team picks up that brand of basketball but all early indications from Atkinson seem to say so. If nothing else theyll be fun to watch.

I was the one who called the Charlotte team early last year. Everyone will say that was a way more talented team, but thats in hindsight. Preseason a lot of people here and writers wrote that team off as one of the worst in the East.I dont think this team will be as good as that one, but theyll surprise everyone.

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
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Thu Aug-25-16 02:59 PM

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39. "I don't know. They barely even have a bench."
In response to Reply # 27


          

I like Brook, Lin (hey look at that!) and Rondae but not as top starters. Booker is solid but nothing special; Scola and Foye are washed up. I'm not wild about General Greivis either. They're going to need Caris Levert to be a huge steal and, even then, the whole thing falls apart if Brook gets hurt again.

It's a bunch of guys with something to prove and Brook playing for one more contract but 30+ wins seems like a reach.

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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Cenario
Member since Aug 24th 2005
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Thu Aug-25-16 01:38 PM

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25. "lol chill."
In response to Reply # 20


  

          

-The Knicks’ coaching search still includes a lone frontrunner, Kurt Rambis, whose qualifications for the position include a strong relationship with Jackson and a willingness to take the job.

  

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Numba_33
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28. "Do you want Lin to remain in Brooklyn?"
In response to Reply # 20


  

          

"Sean sparks like John Starks, nah, Sean ball like John Wall" - Rest In Power Forever Sean Price.

  

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ShawndmeSlanted
Member since Oct 30th 2004
43353 posts
Thu Aug-25-16 02:42 PM

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37. "No clue yet"
In response to Reply # 28


  

          

Id love for him to have some stability and it will be fun to watch him locally, but its a scary situation.

I mean even during FA i wanted Philly more than BK, if not just cause the talented young players and draft pick situation.

Brooklyn seemed hopeless at the beginning. To me it looked like the worst roster ever andno draft pick coming in.

In the past couple months though I see the potential and like what they are building as a system with Atkinson and Marks. Two guys who are at least saying the right things about not just bringing in players, but establishing a culture.

The lineup will be interesting

Jeremy, Brook, RHJ, Bogdanovic and maybe Booker at4?


Jeremy and Brook will be able to work a lot of 1-5 Pnr and PnPop
Bogdan looked great in the Olympics so hopefully he can keep that confidence up and help spread the floor.

RHJ has a lot of room to grow offensively but does a lot on defense.

Their bench is made up of a bunch of young guys who looked solid in summer league and seem to be hungry.

Im interested to see what happnes these next 2 years.My predictionis that theyshow a lot of improvement, will be fun to watch, and will be able to rally more fans in BK -- especially with that new HSS practice facility in SUnset Park.

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

  

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Numba_33
Charter member
19333 posts
Fri Aug-26-16 01:49 PM

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56. "You've put a lot of thought"
In response to Reply # 37


  

          

into what on paper looks like it should be a complete disaster, or at best will be a process of long term improvement. I am impressed. I'm a Knicks fan, so I can't exactly root for the Nets per-say, but for your benefit, I hope Lin flourishes. I'm sure I said it at the time when his contract was announced that his contract is perfect trade-bait; I dunno if that good or bad in the case for this Nets roster.

"Sean sparks like John Starks, nah, Sean ball like John Wall" - Rest In Power Forever Sean Price.

  

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ThaTruth
Charter member
99998 posts
Thu Aug-25-16 02:17 PM

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29. "the Lakers aren't ready to contend anyway, I'd rather they be horrible a..."
In response to Reply # 0


          

snag another top 3 pick

________________________________________
"Take the surprise out your voice Shaq."-The REAL CP3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2H5K-BUMS0

  

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Numba_33
Charter member
19333 posts
Thu Aug-25-16 02:26 PM

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31. "Trust the West Coast Process?"
In response to Reply # 29


  

          

"Sean sparks like John Starks, nah, Sean ball like John Wall" - Rest In Power Forever Sean Price.

  

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ThaTruth
Charter member
99998 posts
Thu Aug-25-16 02:29 PM

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33. "if you can't land the big free agents you gotta suck long enough to get...."
In response to Reply # 31


          

3 or 4 good lottery pics.

________________________________________
"Take the surprise out your voice Shaq."-The REAL CP3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2H5K-BUMS0

  

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-DJ R-Tistic-
Member since Nov 06th 2008
51986 posts
Fri Aug-26-16 10:04 AM

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44. "Nawwwwww man. We've had enough. "
In response to Reply # 29


  

          

If we can even get a 11-12 spot instead, it'll show some growth and give us better motivation. We have way too much young talent as is, no need to try to get another super young 19 year old undeveloped player and hope he lives up to his potential. That's waaaay too much.

------------------------------

50+ FREE Mixes on www.DJR-Tistic.com!

Twitter and Instagram - @DJ_RTistic

  

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bentagain
Member since Mar 19th 2008
16595 posts
Thu Aug-25-16 02:51 PM

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38. "From young legend to escapegoat (c) 'Rie"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

"RPM takes a dim view of Kyrie Irving's defense and considers Matthew Dellavedova (plus-1.2 projection) a considerable loss as Irving's backup"

LOL@shots fired

those Bucks Cavs matchups should be highly entertaining

---------------------------------------------------------------

If you can't understand it without an explanation

you can't understand it with an explanation

  

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mtbatol
Member since May 22nd 2002
19788 posts
Sun Aug-28-16 06:16 PM

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60. "No fucking way the Sixers will be worst than the fucking Nets"
In response to Reply # 0


          

Fuck and that. We will be 2-4 wins better than whatever they are projected to be. We made them our bitches last year. The fucking Nets is THE reason why we didn't break the record for worst record ever giving us 2 of our 10 wins.

The Nets will be our bitches made to do our bidding. They haven't improved nearly enough to escape their fate as being THE one team whose sole existence is to give us wins. They gave us 2 wins last year then watch them get close to being swept this coming season.

  

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bshelly
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Sun Aug-28-16 07:32 PM

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61. "we won 10 games"
In response to Reply # 60


  

          

----
bshelly

"You (Fisher) could get fired, Les Snead could get fired, Kevin Demoff could get fired, but I will always be Eric Dickerson.” (c) The God

  

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mtbatol
Member since May 22nd 2002
19788 posts
Sun Aug-28-16 08:44 PM

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62. "And the BK Gnats gave us 2 of those 10 Ws. Theyre made for bitchslapping"
In response to Reply # 61


          

  

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Cenario
Member since Aug 24th 2005
59181 posts
Mon Aug-29-16 08:31 AM

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63. "yeah i think sixers get to 25-26 at least and think nets will be closer"
In response to Reply # 60


  

          

to 22-25 if healthy.

-The Knicks’ coaching search still includes a lone frontrunner, Kurt Rambis, whose qualifications for the position include a strong relationship with Jackson and a willingness to take the job.

  

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SooperEgo
Charter member
11338 posts
Mon Aug-29-16 08:53 AM

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65. "Lakers on that tank shit"
In response to Reply # 0


          

  

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justin_scott
Charter member
19864 posts
Sat Nov-26-16 05:59 PM

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68. "i didn't expect the Lakers to be this good quite yet, BUT"
In response to Reply # 0


          

i believed then, and still believe, there's no way they end up with fewest wins in the league. i figured 35-38 was where they'd be.

************************************************************

  

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Kungset
Member since Mar 29th 2004
6426 posts
Sun Nov-27-16 07:49 AM

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69. "stat nerds have a really weird thing with the Utah Jazz"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

this happens every year. i even heard talk of them making the conference finals either on Dunc'd on basketball or Lowe's podcast

  

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FILF
Member since Jun 01st 2007
20180 posts
Sun Nov-27-16 05:35 PM

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71. "They stay injured, especially Favors"
In response to Reply # 69


  

          

>this happens every year. i even heard talk of them making the
>conference finals either on Dunc'd on basketball or Lowe's
>podcast

WHAT'S GOOD *****? What's REALLY good?!?!????!!! Ha HA!
http://40.media.tumblr.com/d8e2daf9f3f37244cd05436bcdf05973/tumblr_mt4qibKq4c1rgam01o1_1280.png

  

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