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Not to spoil the upcoming podcast, but:
1. Kansas easily has the best balance of talent and experience of any team left. If Diallo gets cleared, this really shouldn't be close in terms of a preseason favorite (you have to ignore that Self is the coach to make that claim, but for now, I'll do so).
2. Maryland also has strong balance and depth. I agree that they'll disappoint some in the Big Ten (the "luck" KenPom statistic says they waaaaay overperformed last year, which is why he has them ranked so tremendously low), but talent is talent, and outside of the UNC game (which may be without Paige), they only have a home game against Georgetown and a neutral court against a UConn team I don't really believe in yet before conference play. Wouldn't surprise me if they were at 13-1 by 2016. (They do have a tough road slate in conf-- on road against Michigan, MSU, Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue, and Ohio State-- but that's still potentially a 2-4 run of games there, and they'll be very tough at home.)
3. UK is UK. Beastly talent. Not as much depth this year, but who cares? They don't really have a *true* SEC competition for the title, so even with a learning curve, there aren't any more than 5 losses on that schedule, max.
4. People like to cyse the Justin Anderson effect, but the truth is he started insanely hot and then regressed to a mean in a big way-- by the time January hit, UVA had already started to play like a more "good not great" team, but they only had four tough games left on the schedule by the time that happened. They were a sexy early exit for a reason. I think they'll be easily the best defensive team in the ACC (again) and they'll arguably have the best two-way backcourt in the ACC in Brogdon and Perrantes. If UNC's problems from last year carry over, UVA will be thick in the ACC title hunt again.
5. UNC last year couldn't make shots and they couldn't defend. And they lost their best wing defender and received no freshmen expected to get real minutes. So where does the defense come from? They'll be able to score and hit the glass with the best in the country, but teams that force UNC to shoot jumpers will make the Heels vulnerable-- same story from the past several years. Their only hope is if Justin Jackson makes the leap that a lot of people expect him to-- if he can score 18-20 ppg, then their jump shooting is improving, the floor will be more spread, and their offensive efficiency can go even higher. But I'm not convinced that'll happen. This smells like a classic 3 seed, Sweet 16/Elite 8 UNC team to me.
It is a suspect bunch, but there's really just no clear favorite this year. UK and Duke are the most talented, but they're young. The teams with experience all have very clear flaws. Oklahoma, as you mentioned, has an unreal backcourt, but that frontcourt is sparse outside of Spangler-- I think they miss TaShawn Thomas this year in a big way, especially on defense, and if someone doesn't step up, we're looking at yet another 8-10 loss Sooners squad.
We'll see what happens.
Hold a gun to my head, I put UK, Duke, Kansas, and UVA in the Final Four. My movies: http://russellhainline.com
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