http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/braves-finalzing-justin-upton-trade.html

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"Take the surprise out your voice Shaq."-The REAL CP3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2H5K-BUMS0

Upton, Kemp and I guess Maybin would work but it sounds like they will play Kemp in center, Upton in right and I guess Seth Smith in left.

And you will know MY JACKET IS GOLD when I lay my vengeance upon thee.

I'm not sure that a team could assemble three players who were less like Tony Gwynn if they were actively trying.

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"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

>I'm not sure that a team could assemble three players who
>were less like Tony Gwynn if they were actively trying.

Very astute observation there, and I agree


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O_E: "Acts like an asshole and posts with imperial disdain"




"I ORBITs the solar system, listenin..."

(C)Keith Murray, "

Then Gwynn would have actually struck out fewer times than Justin Upton in 2014. Live and learn, I suppose.

It's a weird time in baseball. I think teams are still trying to figure out whether the huge jump in strikeouts is a cause or an effect of the three-true-outcomes emphasis in the last decade. Upton and Kemp strike out a ton, but I can't imagine that players with pop are flocking to San Diego given the way that park plays. So if the Padres want guys who can hit the ball over the wall then they have to trade for them or grow them themselves - and everybody is trying to grow right-handed power themselves right now, with limited success.

This winter, not-striking-out has been the new walks-a-lot as far as free agent compensation for a particular offensive skill. But I'm not sure the pendulum is ever going to swing back against TTO guys like Upton as far as it did a few years ago when guys like Melky Cabrera earned a giant shrug for their offensive skillset.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

> I think teams are still trying
>to figure out whether the huge jump in strikeouts is a cause
>or an effect of the three-true-outcomes emphasis in the last
>decade.

What dis mean...so high TTO is a good thing?

Oh, I see...seems to be a measure of not hitting the
ball into a double play

Why do we use TTO?

>This winter, not-striking-out has been the new walks-a-lot as
>far as free agent compensation for a particular offensive
>skill.

Stanton fans a lot too, though, no?

But I'm not sure the pendulum is ever going to swing
>back against TTO guys like Upton as far as it did a few years
>ago when guys like Melky Cabrera earned a giant shrug for
>their offensive skillset.

Melky was on dem roidzez


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O_E: "Acts like an asshole and posts with imperial disdain"




"I ORBITs the solar system, listenin..."

(C)Keith Murray, "

>What dis mean...so high TTO is a good thing?

Sure, unless it isn't. In the tiny parks/juiced ball/expansion/pharmaceuticals era, guys who dinged those three true outcomes marks were pretty popular as long as the two good ones (homers and walks) kept coming. Strikeouts were just another form of outs and as long as runs were getting on the board, everything was fine. Strikeouts could rise *and* offense could rise at the same time. Now, strikeouts are continuing to rise and offense is declining - and strikeouts are a problem again.

So, IF a team thinks that strikeouts are a problem, then they have to ask themselves a few questions about the "why" in order to address it?

-are players striking out more because we told them a three true outcomes approach was acceptable?

-are players striking out more because pitchers are just getting better?

-are players striking out more because these assholes just can't hit?

I assume most teams are working under the assumption that the answer is some combination of the above. Which means they need to address it at the developmental level with their minor leaguers and at the major league level with their acquisitions. That latter one seems to be happening this winter, with contracts that I wouldn't expect for contact hitters.

You're totally right about Stanton, and that's sort of why I brought it up. Great players don't necessarily fit into trends. Even if we're swinging back toward something more 80's-like, where teams are going to seek to develop/acquire low-K hitters, somebody with 40+ homer pop like Stanton is still going to be valuable. The Padres have paid a fair amount for Kemp and Upton, who are 00's-style players, on the basis that (like Stanton) they're providing something valuable in spite of swimming against the grain *or* that the pendulum will swing back toward three-true-outcomes guys.

I guess I don't really have a conclusion here, except that San Diego might be in a unique situation because of their stadium. Hitters aren't going to choose to play there just like FA pitchers aren't going to choose Colorado. It's just a bad idea if you want a good contract *after* this one. But it seems like they're reaching down a bit for that. Upton and Kemp aren't Mike Stanton, and if a bunch of their homers die on the warning track, they might not be very good baseball players.

Though moving Kemp to a corner and combining them with Maybin is, theoretically, something that could result in a decent defensive outfield. Sorry this isn't clearer. A couple of the contracts in early free agency caught my eye (Melky in particular) and I'm trying to figure out how the Padres fit into that. But it might be a square-peg/round-hole situation with the theory and the reality.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

>...and I guess Seth Smith in left.

though my guess is that it would be Myers in center

God this offense is going to be horrid next year.

damn, Justin.

...I'm from the era when A.I. was the answer, now they think ai is the answer - Marlon Craft

http://board.okayplayer.com/okp.php?az=show_topic&forum=8&topic_id=2155763&mesg_id=2155763&page=63

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"A man who is good enough to shed his blood for his country is good enough to be given a square deal afterwards. More than that no man is entitled, and less than that no man shall have." - TR

"Source says D. Peterson bat-first 3B, adds that none of players in #Braves' return is definite major-league starter. Fried highest upside."

So not a better return than the Heyward trade even though "defense isn't sexy" was pretty much their excuse there. OK then.


And if they're rebuilding for 2017 why are they signing 31 year olds to 4 year deals? (Markakis)

I'm not sure how instructive the category of "definite major league starter" is in a trade with prospects. Fried has big upside. Here's BA prior to the 2014 season on those two:

3. Max Fried, lhp

Max Fried
Max Fried (Photo by Bill Mitchell)
Born: Jan. 18, 1994. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 185. Drafted: HS—Studio City, Calif., 2012 (1st round). Signed by: Brent Mayne.

Background: The seventh overall pick in 2012, Fried paired with fellow Harvard-Westlake School product Lucas Giolito, now the Nationals’ No. 1 prospect, to become the seventh pair of high school teammates selected in the first round of the same draft. Signed for $3 million, Fried advanced to low Class A Fort Wayne in 2013 and made all 23 of his starts in a six-man rotation. His strikeout (7.6 per nine innings) and walk (4.2) rates ranked among the highest in the Midwest League for ERA qualifiers.

Scouting Report: Fried can spin a plus curveball and has two other pitches that scouts grade favorably, but what enhances his ceiling is the projection remaining in his lean 6-foot-4 frame. He fires 90-91 mph fastballs and tops out at 95 in each start—doing so from a textbook delivery and clean arm action—and scouts project a future plus fastball once he’s done filling out. Fried’s power curve turns the most heads for its tight rotation and top-to-bottom spin, and it was responsible for claiming the most strikeout victims. His changeup came a long way in 2013 as he began incorporating into his everyday repertoire. The Padres believe Fried’s walk rate will drop once he challenges hitters more frequently in the zone.

The Future: A three-pitch lefty who misses bats and has a good pickoff move, Fried will zoom through the minors if he throws more strikes. He has No. 2 starter upside, with a chance to jump quickly to Double-A if he excels early at high Class A Lake Elsinore in 2014.

7. Jace Peterson, ss

Jace Peterson

Born: May 9, 1990. B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 205. Drafted: McNeese State, 2011 (1st round supplemental). Signed by: Kevin Ellis.

Background: At McNeese State, Peterson starred on the diamond and as a cornerback on the football team. Each passing year reinforces the notion that he made the right decision in pursuing baseball. He spent all season as shortstop at high Class A Lake Elsinore, ranking among the California League leaders in average (.303), stolen bases (42) and triples (13), while establishing personal bests for average, on-base percentage (.382) and slugging (.454).

Scouting Report: Peterson has no single plus tool, but he combines athleticism, skill and instincts well, so his average tools play. He displays average range and arm strength at shortstop to go with throwing accuracy and first-step quickness. That quickness, combined with his ability to read pitchers, makes up for his below-average run times, as evidenced by a career 80 percent stolen-base success rate in 165 career attempts. Peterson shows no give in left-on-left matchups (batting .342 in 196 full-season at-bats in such situations) and sprays line drives where the ball is pitched, unafraid to use the big part of the park. Though he has below-average power, he collected a career-high 37 extra-base hits in 2013 and can turn on the inside pitch when he’s geared to do so. The organization lauds both his strike-zone discipline and leadership qualities.

The Future: If he reaches his ceiling, Peterson would be a table-setting shortstop on a contender, and he could be ready for San Diego within two seasons. He’s headed for Double-A in 2014.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

I think that's common enough now that we're not really revising players' upside as a result. Just their major league ETA and their chance of reaching said upside.

edit: it's pretty unusual for a player to be traded when he's looking at the bulk of a yearlong rehab in front of him. i wonder what the process of the physical that the Braves will do for that are?

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

i thought he had the surgery in the spring, but it looks like they shut him down in the spring and he just had the surgery in august.

i'd still be happy if my team traded for someone like him. i think jesse hahn was like that when the padres traded for him (high upside, coming off of TJ) but he's gone now, too.

i liked what i saw of jace peterson but the last regime saw him as a super utility guy, i think, and who knows if he would've been given a chance to win the starting SS job that currently belongs to a utility guy.

the one that hurts is mallex smith, poor man's ben revere.

Myers wrist, Kemp's hips, Morrow is diabetic and was injured last few years, Josh Johnson coming off an injury, Upton needs to bounce back, but I do like how the team is looking. A lot of guys who need really good bounce back type of year
'
Padres also might be getting Middlebrooks




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Especially in that big ass ballpark? Cause Kemp definitely is not that guy these days.

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