http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/how-good-is-andrew-luck/

Please discuss

----------------------------



O_E: "Acts like an asshole and posts with imperial disdain"




"I ORBITs the solar system, listenin..."

(C)Keith Murray, "

____________________

<================== MVP

Could've pushed the timing a few weeks, but I'll take it.

---

But hell, what do I know?

Hi.

----------------------------



O_E: "Acts like an asshole and posts with imperial disdain"




"I ORBITs the solar system, listenin..."

(C)Keith Murray, "

---

But hell, what do I know?

Gimme a hug, bro.


----------------------------



O_E: "Acts like an asshole and posts with imperial disdain"




"I ORBITs the solar system, listenin..."

(C)Keith Murray, "

*backs away slowly*

---

But hell, what do I know?

Here is our original stat showing conventional wisdom is WRONG!

Here is some other, much better analysis that shows conventional wisdom is right.

THE DEBATE RAGES.

----
bshelly

"You (Fisher) could get fired, Les Snead could get fired, Kevin Demoff could get fired, but I will always be Eric Dickerson.” (c) The God

I'm serious

----------------------------



O_E: "Acts like an asshole and posts with imperial disdain"




"I ORBITs the solar system, listenin..."

(C)Keith Murray, "

outside of the fact that he's white, whats the issue?

QBs that throw tend to throw INTs. its not like he throws 30 times and 10 of those are INTs. he's asked to throw because there's no run game.

i think you're cloaking this in cam and rg's power, which is fine, except their numbers don't stack up. so ... what?

---

But hell, what do I know?

>outside of the fact that he's white, whats the issue?
>
>QBs that throw tend to throw INTs. its not like he throws 30
>times and 10 of those are INTs. he's asked to throw because
>there's no run game.
>
>i think you're cloaking this in cam and rg's power, which is
>fine, except their numbers don't stack up. so ... what?

I'm not sure who farted in your dinner, and what it smelt
like


----------------------------



O_E: "Acts like an asshole and posts with imperial disdain"




"I ORBITs the solar system, listenin..."

(C)Keith Murray, "

---

But hell, what do I know?

Check shells sig
-----------
Y'all stupid...should've tanked for Lebron/Wiggins in 2014 -Rex LongFellow

Its 2014...there are computers in glasses and people stunt after hitting the ball far. Get over it. -Cenario

It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilariou

What a complete fuckup in every conceivable way

Vox doesn't brand themselves as the Constantinople of
data news, and routinely cleans 538s clock in every way

Hell, even Vox's stupid public interest stories have better data
and are cleaner

And let's not even discuss 538s attempts at seriousness

LOLLLLLL

They should just become a sports website, and continue to do
a mediocre job at that

At least they'll be mediocre, because right now they are
pathetic


----------------------------



O_E: "Acts like an asshole and posts with imperial disdain"




"I ORBITs the solar system, listenin..."

(C)Keith Murray, "

if you follow him on twitter he's unbelievably petty and annoying

see: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statuses/480877627553878016

nate the petty gawd really does act like he has a monopoly on math

>
>What a complete fuckup in every conceivable way
>
>Vox doesn't brand themselves as the Constantinople of
>data news,

I asked people to explain what makes his political projections
model so genius, nobody could do it

There is literally nothing special about dude other than
how he's branded himself, which I cannot be mad at

But his actual IQ? Bwahahahaha

No

i saw him speak during the world cup but was only half watching
i was watching bill maher with some one else and had mentioned i heard of dude before
the rest of show i had to light weight plea cop why he was an awkward dweeb with no points to contribute

~~~~~~

He's a productive geek, ran a highly efficient, well
designed blog.

Writes cleanly, without a ton of grammar errors.

Always posts things on-time.

He's not particularly intelligent, though.



----------------------------



O_E: "Acts like an asshole and posts with imperial disdain"




"I ORBITs the solar system, listenin..."

(C)Keith Murray, "

not doing much nowadays but caking.

---

But hell, what do I know?

when they say "he got 49 of 50 states correct" well yeah, but only like a dozen states are anything close to a toss-up, and like half of those have a much clearer outcome by the time election day rolls around.

understand simple math.

Because he is looking at data instead of using gut feelings, narratives or pulling something completely out of your ass, he's seen as some kind of Wizard King who can predict elections unlike anyone else. Because he's relying on cold hard numbers and not things that are completely impossible to quantify, they've become convinced that he's even MORE brilliant, because he can obviously see into the future.

It's like that episode of South Park where Stan starts cold reading to expose those guys as frauds, only to become the world's most successful cold reader.

Actual stats nerds can debate the merits of Silver's statistical model, the talking heads still haven't wrapped their minds around the very concept of a statistical model or why someone would use it.

------

12 play and 12 planets are enlighten for all the Aliens to Party and free those on the Sex Planet-maxxx

XBL: trkc21
Twitter: @tyrcasey

his writing is clear. there are better models and anyone with basic competency could go 49 for 50 the day before an election because the number of polls out there makes it easy to do so with a really basic model.

-----------
Y'all stupid...should've tanked for Lebron/Wiggins in 2014 -Rex LongFellow

Its 2014...there are computers in glasses and people stunt after hitting the ball far. Get over it. -Cenario

It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilariou

any modeler with a couple months to kill could probably do what he's done, bur they didn't. He did, and in the process he's absolutely elevated election coverage.

----
bshelly

"You (Fisher) could get fired, Les Snead could get fired, Kevin Demoff could get fired, but I will always be Eric Dickerson.” (c) The God

LOL @ his talent

Productivity and memeology are top notch

Good for him

and you nailed it with one take.

----
bshelly

"You (Fisher) could get fired, Les Snead could get fired, Kevin Demoff could get fired, but I will always be Eric Dickerson.” (c) The God

it will jump the shark really quick. it's already begun, as the lesson hasn't been "change in election prediction over time is a slow process or a dumb one and pretty much unnecessary"

which is what his models show. In general, excluding shocking events in a campaign shit doesn't change quickly. momentum is just noise, more or less, and the basics of voting are and continue to be the economy. the economy. and the economy.

in 2016, i might just post a prediction once the two candidates are announced using only economic data and historical voting data, some demographic info (race/education) and be done.

except i'm lazy. GRANTLAND/538 LURKERS ACTIVATE?
-----------
Y'all stupid...should've tanked for Lebron/Wiggins in 2014 -Rex LongFellow

Its 2014...there are computers in glasses and people stunt after hitting the ball far. Get over it. -Cenario

It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilariou

political scientists have been modeling election results using just the fundamentals for a long time, and our models are ass.

----
bshelly

"You (Fisher) could get fired, Les Snead could get fired, Kevin Demoff could get fired, but I will always be Eric Dickerson.” (c) The God

how far from nate silver are they? and again, we could just avoid 99% of his coverage if the only prediction that matters is the one the day before. I can get that.

there is basically nothing to Nate Silver's shtick other than being a good writer and running the same simple model over and over and over again. yawn.

predicting elections results the day before it happens is, quite simply, generally really easy to do. and, i suspect, early polling and fundamentals (note the early polling part of that sentence) works well too.

if it didn't, then silver shouldn't be running a model until a week before the election or so.

-----------
Y'all stupid...should've tanked for Lebron/Wiggins in 2014 -Rex LongFellow

Its 2014...there are computers in glasses and people stunt after hitting the ball far. Get over it. -Cenario

It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilariou

----
bshelly

"You (Fisher) could get fired, Les Snead could get fired, Kevin Demoff could get fired, but I will always be Eric Dickerson.” (c) The God

that shit was like a weird fantasy variant for junkies who are bored with "standard scoring" because they've been registering for 5+ teams every year for the last decade or so:

"ANY/A - adjusted net yards per passing attempt: (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - sack yards)/(passing attempts + sacks). See AY/A. Note that we are now using 20 yards per TD instead of 10, because of research by Chase Stuart at the p-f-r blog."

Also loved the super throwaway paragraph where he was like, "it is true football players' stats are dependent o their teammates more so than any other sport, but whatever that's not what this article is about so moving on."

___________

HOPE!
https://vine.co/v/i7JjIBL3Qix
https://vine.co/v/i7JtqEFwxDu

>Also loved the super throwaway paragraph where he was like,
>"it is true football players' stats are dependent o their
>teammates more so than any other sport, but whatever that's
>not what this article is about so moving on."

i didn't go into detail on his methodologies after i read that. we have plenty of methodologies that do take into account teammate performance (however imperfectly) so why do I care about what you say?

this whole article struck me as exactly the type of thing a second year graduate student trying his/her hand at original quant research for the first time would spit out. he has an incomplete understanding of the literature, but that didn't stop him from rushing in with a half-assed analysis and screaming "i've measured something in the bestest possible way, ways no one ever thought before, and YOU'RE ALL WRONG!!"

(Yup, that was me.)

Then, everyone at research seminar looks at dude and says, "actually, we thought of that 10 years ago and handled it far better than you did, plus here are four other major obstacles that we've already tackled but you don't, making your study pretty close to useless."

most of the time, the grad student, abashed, leaves the seminar room, gets really drunk, then goes back to the grind and makes his shit better.

unless nate silver reaches him first, in which case he apparently gives him a lucrative job and a national platform.

----
bshelly

"You (Fisher) could get fired, Les Snead could get fired, Kevin Demoff could get fired, but I will always be Eric Dickerson.” (c) The God

relatedly, i just reviewed a piece for my advisor/co-PI (she was busy working on our grant application, so i offered to do the review so she could finish the far more important work. i think i got played. anyway) that was identical to what you point out except, instead of it being a grad student, it was a dude from England talking bout racial segregation in the US. shit was terrible, which at least made it easy to review.

nothing in the world i hated worse than reviews. except faculty meetings, of course.

2. be kind but firm. i remember when i got a scorched earth review from a journal midway through grad school. the reviewer rightly pointed out that, uh, my attempts to shy away from the traditional journal format were unhelpful and that my analysis was well short of where it needed to be.

s/he pulled no punches, and i probably needed some of that to beat some awareness/acceptance of professional norms into me. but the way s/he did it--the utter mean-spiritedness, the obvious delight s/he took in all but calling me stupid--was academic insecurity at its worst.

i made two resolutions right there. one, i wouldn't put up with that shit ever again. it eventually got me into trouble, because the assistant professor who is not willing to take any and everything will eventually find himself in trouble. and two, when i got into power to review or have people underneath me, i'd go out of my way to be decent to them.

----
bshelly

"You (Fisher) could get fired, Les Snead could get fired, Kevin Demoff could get fired, but I will always be Eric Dickerson.” (c) The God

but then i generally get something in return (like these grants which are 100% due to her name, but she's making me PI).

>nothing in the world i hated worse than reviews. except
>faculty meetings, of course.

word. I do somewhat enjoy

>2. be kind but firm. i remember when i got a scorched earth
>review from a journal midway through grad school. the
>reviewer rightly pointed out that, uh, my attempts to shy away
>from the traditional journal format were unhelpful and that my
>analysis was well short of where it needed to be.

ya lo se. in this case, though, it needed to be smacked down pretty severely because it was trying to do waaaaay too much and disrespecting an entire subfield for no reason. Plus, it was easy (once I had read the article and written most of the review) to find that it was written a seasoned professor who should have known better.

>s/he pulled no punches, and i probably needed some of that to
>beat some awareness/acceptance of professional norms into me.
>but the way s/he did it--the utter mean-spiritedness, the
>obvious delight s/he took in all but calling me stupid--was
>academic insecurity at its worst.

never mean-spirited, but blunt as hell about the work, never the person (and i've reviewed shit that should have been desk rejected easy). I got meanspirited recently, i know that pain. but i also know a couple friends who go too easy and then saw bad papers get published or the thing returned without the right (obvious) changes made.

i can never decide if this is ethical of me or not, but I routinely find who wrote the paper after reading it, making my decision and sketching out the review. Mostly, it's because i'm a curious dude and want to know. partly, its so i don't burn bridges with people i know/like/respect. And a large part is because i write things differently when it's to a grad student vs. assistant professor vs. tenured (and at what school).

A friend of mine was a managing editor @ a journal and told me about how they rate reviewers. I really wish that were more transparent. I've seen so many reviews that are unnecessarily mean or obviously forcing their own work on a piece or clearly missed the point of a paper. It's frustrating for those of us who spend time writing a good, honest, hard-hitting, but respectful review to see such crap alongside.

-----------
Y'all stupid...should've tanked for Lebron/Wiggins in 2014 -Rex LongFellow

Its 2014...there are computers in glasses and people stunt after hitting the ball far. Get over it. -Cenario

It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilariou

____________________________________________________


Steph: I was just fooling about

Kyrie: I wasn't.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8OWNspU_yE

Hi Basa


----------------------------



O_E: "Acts like an asshole and posts with imperial disdain"




"I ORBITs the solar system, listenin..."

(C)Keith Murray, "

Like gets into the playoffs on a 10-6 record winning 7 of those games by 7 points or less while leading his team in rushing. While throwing for 4500 yards w/leading WR Jericho Cotchery.

He'd still get 1/10th the credit of Luck.

than both of them dudes...

grassrootsphilosopher

>than both of them dudes...

Russell Wilson is the best QB from his draft class. Russell is in the record books ALREADY 'The fuck has Luck done other than be overrated?

No empathy for white misery (c) BDot

"root for everybody black haters say that's crazy, wow..."

>Russell Wilson is the best QB from his draft class. Russell is
>in the record books ALREADY 'The fuck has Luck done other than
>be overrated?

Gtfoh - Wilson is not better than Luck, he just happens to be on a MUCH better team than Luck. Like literally no *credible* person associated w/NFL football would rank Russell Wilson above Andrew Luck (that's some OKP foolishness). Wilson was really meh throughout the entire playoffs. Because the Seahawks are a run-first team, he doesn't have to do nearly as much as Luck has to do for the Colts who don't really have a running game or a lot of offensive weapons, period...add to the fact that he lost his best offensive weapon at the midway point of the season and he still got them to the playoffs where he led them from a dramatic come from behind win. Put Luck on Seattle and Wilson on the Colts and I guarantee you no one would even be talking abt Wilson.

Ya'll dudes sound stupid. Luck overrated but Wilson ain't...yeah, like I said, foh.

grassrootsphilosopher

>>Russell Wilson is the best QB from his draft class. Russell
>is
>>in the record books ALREADY 'The fuck has Luck done other
>than
>>be overrated?
>
>Gtfoh - Wilson is not better than Luck, he just happens to be
>on a MUCH better team than Luck. Like literally no *credible*
>person associated w/NFL football would rank Russell Wilson
>above Andrew Luck (that's some OKP foolishness). Wilson was
>really meh throughout the entire playoffs. Because the
>Seahawks are a run-first team, he doesn't have to do nearly as
>much as Luck has to do for the Colts who don't really have a
>running game or a lot of offensive weapons, period...add to
>the fact that he lost his best offensive weapon at the midway
>point of the season and he still got them to the playoffs
>where he led them from a dramatic come from behind win. Put
>Luck on Seattle and Wilson on the Colts and I guarantee you no
>one would even be talking abt Wilson.
>
>Ya'll dudes sound stupid. Luck overrated but Wilson
>ain't...yeah, like I said, foh.

Give Russell Wilson hall of famers with strong seasons left. Motherfucker started with Hall of Fame Wayne while no one knew the names of any offensive or defensive personnel on the Seahawks. Russell wasn't supposed to start his first year. Percy Harvin was out for the entire year and not available as an option while Beast Mode was mostly pedestrian since that big run.

GTFOH talking about Russell isn't asked to do as much as Luck. He has more responsibilities as Luck and has to scramble out of the pocket more.

>Give Russell Wilson hall of famers with strong seasons left.
>Motherfucker started with Hall of Fame Wayne while no one knew
>the names of any offensive or defensive personnel on the
>Seahawks.

Are you really trying to say Luck had more to work with than Wilson??? His 1st season w/ the Colts was supposed to be a *rebuilding* season and he surpassed EVERYONE'S expectation by leading them to the playoffs, keep in mind he lost his head coach for much of that season, too. This past season he loses Wayne and Trent Richardson, who was suppose to be a good pick-up, ended up not giving them absolutely nothing but Luck managed to overcome those setbacks to lead them to the playoffs again. And you talking abt HOFers Luck played w/on offense I'm assuming, who else besides Wayne? That team was far more bereft of talent in comparison to Seattle who already was becoming one of the NFC powers before they even drafted Wilson.

You should turn in your log-in for saying that...


Russell wasn't supposed to start his first year.
>Percy Harvin was out for the entire year and not available as
>an option while Beast Mode was mostly pedestrian since that
>big run.

Dude, Russell had the least amount of pass attempts of any starting QB last season. They won because of defense and that's not even debatable. Wilson wasn't very good in the NFC championship game nor did he do much against the Saints...yet, the Seahawks won both gms because their defense played at a level we haven't seen since maybe the Ravens...
>
>GTFOH talking about Russell isn't asked to do as much as Luck.
>He has more responsibilities as Luck and has to scramble out
>of the pocket more.

So Russell Wilson has to do as much Andrew Luck for his team to win? If you believe that, then it further proves you don't watch the gms or if you are, you're not paying attention to what you're watching (prolly blogging on OKP during gms lol)...

Seattle's offense is based around their run game, not throwing the ball. Luck on the other hand has to make plays w/his arm and w/his legs for his team to have a chance to win (2nd on his team in rushing). When espn analysts ranked all the young QBs, Luck, RG3, Cam, Kap, Wilson, guess who was 1st on everyone's list? And guess who was dead last on all the analyst's (former NFL players to be exact) list? Just take a wild guess.

grassrootsphilosopher

over the last two years you could argue that the AFC south was the worst division in the league while the NFC west was the best (especially last year)
still luck has to get credit for the colts being aight during that time frame
at the same time it's nothing wrong with admitting that he got outshone by RG3 and Wilson in years 1 and 2 respectively
balling out against fat bastard after having a pick fest in the 1st half is a good sign going forward and he has this 3rd year to try to separate himself from his peers

~~~~~~

he balled out...

And the. NFC east was/is WEAKER than the AFC south...and is constantly overrated *EVERY* season...

Conference aside, though, Russell Wilson is not better than Luck. Like I said, if the two players switched teams, I think Seattle w/Luck would yield the same results...but anyone who believes Wilson could've done the same w/the Colts is just lying to themself.








over the last two years you could argue that the AFC south
>was the worst division in the league while the NFC west was
>the best (especially last year)
>still luck has to get credit for the colts being aight during
>that time frame
>at the same time it's nothing wrong with admitting that he got
>outshone by RG3 and Wilson in years 1 and 2 respectively
>balling out against fat bastard after having a pick fest in
>the 1st half is a good sign going forward and he has this 3rd
>year to try to separate himself from his peers

grassrootsphilosopher

he balled out...

And the. NFC east was/is WEAKER than the AFC south...and is constantly overrated *EVERY* season...

Conference aside, Russell Wilson is not better than Luck. Like I said, if the two players switched teams, I think Seattle w/Luck would yield the same results...but anyone who believes Wilson could've done the same w/the Colts is just lying to themself.








over the last two years you could argue that the AFC south
>was the worst division in the league while the NFC west was
>the best (especially last year)
>still luck has to get credit for the colts being aight during
>that time frame
>at the same time it's nothing wrong with admitting that he got
>outshone by RG3 and Wilson in years 1 and 2 respectively
>balling out against fat bastard after having a pick fest in
>the 1st half is a good sign going forward and he has this 3rd
>year to try to separate himself from his peers

grassrootsphilosopher

but indy still had a top 10 defense and i think they are closer on the offensive weapon side than ppl are trying to make it seem

no argument that luck basically had 6 guaranteed wins on his schedule last year when wilson had 4 games against two of the best teams in the nfc
then 2 games against one of the best defensive lines in the league
colts played the nfc west and did ok but rivalry ball is way more intense (c) firebrand

~~~~~~

>>Give Russell Wilson hall of famers with strong seasons
>left.
>>Motherfucker started with Hall of Fame Wayne while no one
>knew
>>the names of any offensive or defensive personnel on the
>>Seahawks.
>
>Are you really trying to say Luck had more to work with than
>Wilson??? His 1st season w/ the Colts was supposed to be a
>*rebuilding* season and he surpassed EVERYONE'S expectation by
>leading them to the playoffs, keep in mind he lost his head
>coach for much of that season, too. This past season he loses
>Wayne and Trent Richardson, who was suppose to be a good
>pick-up, ended up not giving them absolutely nothing but Luck
>managed to overcome those setbacks to lead them to the
>playoffs again. And you talking abt HOFers Luck played w/on
>offense I'm assuming, who else besides Wayne? That team was
>far more bereft of talent in comparison to Seattle who already
>was becoming one of the NFC powers before they even drafted
>Wilson.

LOL at all the pleas you copped.

You didn't refute my point earlier. Luck started his career with Reggie Wayne, Donnie Avery, TY Hilton, his collegiate tight end, Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, and Antoine Bethea. You should hand in your login for not mentioning this as someone who allegedly knows their shit. Their running back had a great season. This is clearly not a rebuilding team. He didn't live up to "once-in-a-generation" hype. Miss me with the poor Andrew Luck talk. He has running backs but is a gunner by nature on some Brett Favre shit.
>
>You should turn in your log-in for saying that...
>
>
>Russell wasn't supposed to start his first year.
>>Percy Harvin was out for the entire year and not available
>as
>>an option while Beast Mode was mostly pedestrian since that
>>big run.
>
>Dude, Russell had the least amount of pass attempts of any
>starting QB last season. They won because of defense and
>that's not even debatable. Wilson wasn't very good in the NFC
>championship game nor did he do much against the Saints...yet,
>the Seahawks won both gms because their defense played at a
>level we haven't seen since maybe the Ravens...

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

When the Colts win Andrew Luck willed them to victory but when Seattle wins you cite defense and the running game. This is completely hypocritical. Russell averaged 8.25 yard per attempt so stop downplaying his accomplishments. He's third in passing yards per completion. BUT BUT, BUT, his defense and other plea cop bullshit fuckouttahere. If it's so easy then how come Andrew Luck couldn't do it with his once-in-a-generation ass.

More stats to forever dead this lopsided comparison:

Russell Wilson is tied for ninth in passing touchdowns in the league.
Russell Wilson is seventh in league passer rating.
Russell Wilson is seventh in net yards per pass attempt.
Russell Wilson is third in passing touchdown percentage.
Russell Wilson is tied for first in game winning drives.
Russell Wilson is tied for second with comeback drives. So miss me with talk of ANDREW LUCK IS BETTER. I got mo 'fiyah for this bullshit you spewing.

Holla at the stat sheet: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2013/leaders.htm

Russell Wilson has the most wins through two seasons in NFL history.
>>
>>GTFOH talking about Russell isn't asked to do as much as
>Luck.
>>He has more responsibilities as Luck and has to scramble out
>>of the pocket more.
>
>So Russell Wilson has to do as much Andrew Luck for his team
>to win? If you believe that, then it further proves you don't
>watch the gms or if you are, you're not paying attention to
>what you're watching (prolly blogging on OKP during gms
>lol)...
>
>Seattle's offense is based around their run game, not throwing
>the ball. Luck on the other hand has to make plays w/his arm
>and w/his legs for his team to have a chance to win (2nd on
>his team in rushing). When espn analysts ranked all the young
>QBs, Luck, RG3, Cam, Kap, Wilson, guess who was 1st on
>everyone's list? And guess who was dead last on all the
>analyst's (former NFL players to be exact) list? Just take a
>wild guess.
>

and Russell Wilson doesn't??? SHUT UP FOREVER WITH THESE BULLSHIT PLEA COPS. Of course ESPN jumped on the Andrew Luck hype train and LOOK WHERE THAT GOT THEM. Russell has to do more for his team to win. He's under far more pressure. Andrew Luck has a nation of ESPN raised stans copping pleas for him with every move. Do you think it's easy for a rookie to come into the NFL and game manage on a championship level? Once again, HE WAS SUPPOSED TO RIDE THE BENCH HIS FIRST YEAR. If you knew your shit then you'd know he forced himself into the starting conversation with grind. Andrew Luck had his job handed to him. Don't act like Andrew Luck has a lack of talented running backs. Vick Ballard and Donald Brown tell you to shut all the way the fuck up.

Russell Wilson is a far better QB. Don't believe me? Holla at the stat sheet. Russell could retire today and this is true. Through their first two seasons, Russell had the better career. Of course Andrew Luck has time to close the gap but right now the two QBs do not belong in the same conversation.

Seahawks fans: COME DEFEND YOUR QB because I'm tired of shut the haters smoove the fuck up.

noted that one of the main goals for the colts new offensive coordinator last year was to dumb down the passing attack for Luck
who was kind of asked to carry too much of the load the previous year
they simplified some of the reads and scaled back on pass attempts
his numbers improved a lot as a result of that + natural maturation
the *forced* emphasis on the running game just made the trent richardson L more hilarious though cause the colts would continue giving him the ball on those 15 carry 40 yard games just to set up the play action for Luck and make his job easier


>More stats to forever dead this lopsided comparison:
>
>Russell Wilson is tied for ninth in passing touchdowns in the
>league.
>Russell Wilson is seventh in league passer rating.
>Russell Wilson is seventh in net yards per pass attempt.
>Russell Wilson is third in passing touchdown percentage.
>Russell Wilson is tied for first in game winning drives.
>Russell Wilson is tied for second with comeback drives. So
>miss me with talk of ANDREW LUCK IS BETTER. I got mo 'fiyah
>for this bullshit you spewing.
>

~~~~~~

I don't need to bother reading that, because I'm blessed with two eyes and a level of understanding of football that tells me Luck is really good and will continue to be for probably the next decade or so.

This is why I hitched my wagon to him rather than say, Josh Freeman, like some other folks we know

Yeah. Nerds thought JD Drew was a great player. And then he retired and they moved on to other topics of discussion.

Take notes, city of Philadelphia. It was like fifteen years ago. JD Drew had a fine career. The Phillies had a tremendously successful decade without him. Everybody walks away winners unless one party decides to act like sore weirdos on the internet.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

I'm donating money to one of them on your behalf because of that
wondrous reply.

----------------------------



O_E: "Acts like an asshole and posts with imperial disdain"




"I ORBITs the solar system, listenin..."

(C)Keith Murray, "

Ha. I thought unusually hard about that choice.

This is a good post and fivethirtyeight hasn't turned the corner from boring and unnecessary, but I still love Nate Silver. I will always stump for University of Chicago graduates, who tend to be more interesting when they fail at things than regular, well-adjusted people are when they succeed at things.

Or maybe Kim Ng will get that Padres job and I can move on to a different Maroon hobbyhorse.

______________________________

"Walleye, a lot of things are going to go wrong in your life that technically aren't your fault. Always remember that this doesn't make you any less of an idiot"

--Walleye's Dad

>Yeah. Nerds thought JD Drew was a great player. And then he
>retired and they moved on to other topics of discussion.
>
>Take notes, city of Philadelphia. It was like fifteen years
>ago. JD Drew had a fine career. The Phillies had a
>tremendously successful decade without him. Everybody walks
>away winners unless one party decides to act like sore weirdos
>on the internet.

That's twice in a week you've come at me unsolicited on some Pavlovian Baseball Prospectus Defender Bat Signal shit.

This time I'll leave your reply in with mine so we you can skip the edit.

For the record, I could not care less about JD Drew's aborted signing in Philly during the Curt Schilling Vet Stadium era before we bumped Bill Giles out because they were undeniably a shitty organization who never should have drafted a kid they were going to be unable to sign.

That was when he was being touted mostly by scouts and Scott Boras.

His touting by saber metric nerds came later when he actually had an MLB career well underway, for me personally I'm reminded more of early into my move to LA when he was acquired during the failed Paul DePodesta Era.

Nerds and Moneyball evangelical types thought he was an elite baseball player, folks who watched him regularly at any of his stops knew otherwise.

And if a nerd came up with a formula here (as mentioned, I didn't actually bother to read it because it doesn't matter to me) to say Andrew Luck isn't a good quarterback, then the math is even further off base.

talking 'bout baseball analytics in a post you knew he'd read.

>His touting by saber metric nerds came later when he actually
>had an MLB career well underway, for me personally I'm
>reminded more of early into my move to LA when he was acquired
>during the failed Paul DePodesta Era.

Analytics say he was underrated by a lot of fans--dude was a good outfielder. not a star, but not as bad as a lot of people thought (he got booed as a sox player and it was a mistake. he played almost exactly to his contract). as a sox fan and analytics fan, i've got to agree. he was a good player. he was not who the scouts/Boras hyped him to be. He is not a HOF player. but he was an above average outfielder.




-----------
Y'all stupid...should've tanked for Lebron/Wiggins in 2014 -Rex LongFellow

Its 2014...there are computers in glasses and people stunt after hitting the ball far. Get over it. -Cenario

It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilariou

was me blowing some hit data dog whistle, nor am I some anti-analytics crusader or even more laughably carrying a grudge for a dude who never played a game in a Phillies uniform and missed the most successful stretch in team history that followed.

The rest was just him going in off an assumption along with maybe a holdover from his edit in my Gwynn post from last week and/or some other shit I said about baseball that he didn't like in the past.

I would never consciously be trying to bait walleye of all people into board beef, more likely one of the umpteen times in here I came out sounding like an asshole he felt the spray of my surly shrapnel.

JD Drew is whatever to me, if I instead used Nick Collison the whole thing wouldn't have been noticed, Andrew Luck however is the best young QB in the game regardless of what any stat geek wants to say.

baseball = walleye would respond.

no big deal to anyone.

i think andrew luck is crazy good. best or 2nd best or 3rd best amongst the crop of young talent is whatever. this article is hot sports take bullshit.

-----------
Y'all stupid...should've tanked for Lebron/Wiggins in 2014 -Rex LongFellow

Its 2014...there are computers in glasses and people stunt after hitting the ball far. Get over it. -Cenario

It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilariou

>Nerds and Moneyball evangelical types thought he was an elite
>baseball player, folks who watched him regularly at any of his
>stops knew otherwise.

J.D. Drew: 44.9 career WAR
Ryan Howard: 18.5 career WAR


Crusty old nostalgists and onion-breath types thought Howard was an elite baseball player, folks who watched him objectively and understand math beyond simple arithmetic know otherwise.

___________________

Mar-A-Lago delenda est

WAR is also easily the worst of any of the new math categories and you think Chase Utley is a far better defensive player than Jimmy Rollins.

I know difference of opinion or not that Walleye truly watches & knows baseball, when you trotted out that dumb shit it was honestly like the moment Mr Burns realized as Homer spins in circles across his carpet speaking gibberish after the plant strike ends that he might not be the genius strategic union leader he had thought.

My own lack of dedicated attention paid to the sport in recent years had me giving a wide birth thinking you might actually know what the fuck your talking about.

You let me down, mad Met Fan.

at least you admit he was already in decline before the injury now. guess that's easier to accept now that you've abandoned all hope & given up on your team.

>WAR is also easily the worst of any of the new math
>categories and you think Chase Utley is a far better defensive
>player than Jimmy Rollins.

so take your pick: wOBA and wRC+ are probably the best, and Drew tops Howard in those categories too (and that's just on offense). WAR may be far from perfect, but when it's 2 1/2 times higher for one player than another that's pretty telling.

and I don't think Utley is a far better defensive player than Rollins (although UZR and DRS do). He does provide more defensive value though.


>I know difference of opinion or not that Walleye truly watches
>& knows baseball, when you trotted out that dumb shit it was
>honestly like the moment Mr Burns realized as Homer spins in
>circles across his carpet speaking gibberish after the plant
>strike ends that he might not be the genius strategic union
>leader he had thought.

... but Homer still won though, right?

WOOOOOOO-wooo-wooo-wooo-wooo-wooo-wooot!
WOOOOOOO-wooo-wooo-wooo-wooo-wooo-wooot!

>My own lack of dedicated attention paid to the sport in recent
>years had me giving a wide birth thinking you might actually
>know what the fuck your talking about.
>
>You let me down, mad Met Fan.

No - Ruben Amaro let you down, sad Phils fan.

___________________

Mar-A-Lago delenda est

Don't really bother engaging in debates over mostly bullshit goalpost-moving terms like 'overrated', usually leave that to mad fans & shitty sportswriters.

When Ryan Howard was breaking franchise records in HRs/RBIs anchoring the middle of the lineup for the league leading squad in runs for half a decade while winning five straight divisions and going to a couple World Series he was an elite baseball player and I will always appreciate him for that fact alone.

Think that whole run started with two historic Met choke jobs before they faded into Bolivian, falling off harder than the idiot at Citi Field did from the 'party deck' while begging for batting practice balls over the weekend.

Glad we can now agree WAR kinda sucks.

Also appreciate your efforts to begin walking back the ridiculous 'Utley>>>Rollins' defensive prowess stance even if the mealy-mouthed new modified qualifier is still wrong.

Watching a little more of the sport you purport to love and could help avoid a few embarrassing snafus in the future.

I've also been shitting on Ruben Amaro since before Bernie Madoff met his cell mate but not quite as far back as it's been since the Mets made the playoffs.

Oh well, with summer rapidly approaching a wrap, personally traveling much of these next two weeks and football starting it shouldn't be too hard to avoid much more angst over the 2014 Phillies and/or our entire past-its-prime pastime prior to the playoffs.

K

And you will know MY JACKET IS GOLD when I lay my vengeance upon thee.

----
bshelly

"You (Fisher) could get fired, Les Snead could get fired, Kevin Demoff could get fired, but I will always be Eric Dickerson.” (c) The God

"SPM"?

----
bshelly

"You (Fisher) could get fired, Les Snead could get fired, Kevin Demoff could get fired, but I will always be Eric Dickerson.” (c) The God

2 11-5 seasons

2 playoff appearances

2 years in the league

I'll take it.

---------------------------------------------------------------

If you can't understand it without an explanation

you can't understand it with an explanation

And you will know MY JACKET IS GOLD when I lay my vengeance upon thee.