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http://www.omaha.com/article/20140322/BLUEJAYS/140329459/1685#chatelain-the-creighton-way-is-live-and-let-fly
SAN ANTONIO — My sweet grandma could've made the shot. And she's 93.
Creighton trailed Louisiana 50-48 Friday with 11:30 left. The joint was jumpin'. Bluejay fans were shakin'. The Ragin' Cajuns had the 3 seed on the ropes.
Jahenns Manigat slashed through the lane and had as close to an open layup as you'll find in a half-court set. Game tied, right?
Nope. Manigat leaped and — out of the corner of his eye — he saw a teammate in the right corner. He flipped the ball 20 feet away from the rim. Grant Gibbs heard the crowd.
“They gasped.”
“I was one of 'em,” CU assistant Darian DeVries said. “And then I realized who he kicked it out to.”
Ethan Wragge, 3-pointer. Creighton 51, Lafayette 50.
It was the turning point. And it violated every traditional rule of basketball. Yet for Creighton, it fits perfectly with its motto all year, the slogan DeVries suggested for the Jays' new NCAA tournament shooting shirts.
“Let it fly.”
Creighton meets Baylor in the Round of 32 today, the game CU has pinpointed for 365 days. And analyzing its chances is so easy my 3-year-old could do it:
You ready? Make 3s, win. Miss 3s, lose.
“It's that simple,” DeVries said. “If we go 6 for 25 against Baylor, we're probably going home. That's the way it is.”
But if CU goes 14 for 25 from deep, well, it'll beat Baylor by 15. And it can beat Wisconsin and Arizona, too.
Couldn't you say that about any team? The difference is 14 for 25 is fairly routine for Creighton.
Baylor's frontline is massive — Isaiah Austin is so tall and lanky, he looks like two sixth-graders stacked on top of each other. The Bears are going to get offensive rebounds. They are going to get dunks. It won't be enough if the Jays hit shots.
That's why Creighton is so frightening to face. Ask Villanova. In a sense, the opponent has no control of its own fate.
Make 3s, win. Miss 3s, lose.
Manigat's decision at 50-48 is still hard to grasp, even for those of us who have followed Creighton the past three years. Even for Greg McDermott.
“My initial thought was, Why not take the two points, Jahenns?”
But then he thought about it. McDermott has said he lies awake at night thinking of ways to get Wragge more open 3s. And it's not to soothe Wragge's ego.
“Statistically, the best shots in our offense are Doug and Ethan, spot-up 3s,” Gibbs said.
He's right. Wragge and Doug McDermott hit better than 45 percent of their 3-point attempts. If they attempted one every possession, Creighton would score 1.35 points per possession. That would lead the country. Easily.
But wait a second, you say: 1.35 isn't better than Manigat's sure two points. True. But Wragge's 3-point percentage counts all of his attempts, most of them contested. What are his chances when he gets a clean look?
Hmmm ... I guessed 60-70 percent.
No way, DeVries said. It's closer to 80.
“No question. If Doug and Ethan are standing with their feet set and there's a rotation and they're shooting a wide-open 3, they're going to make eight out of 10. No question.”
Eighty percent equals 2.4 points per possession. Even if Wragge and McDermott only hit 66 percent of those, it's two points — the same as Manigat's layup.
Surely old-school coaches are reading this and shaking their heads. But that little math exercise is the foundation of Creighton's offense.
Let it fly.
Let's take the formula one step further. The Jays lead the nation in 3-point shooting at 42.1 percent. If every single possession ended in a 3-point attempt, they'd score 1.26 points per possession. That's better than their current 1.19, which is best in the country.
I know you don't want to take 70 3s, I told DeVries ...
“I do,” DeVries says laughing.
But seriously, there's no such thing as too many 3s, right?
“Not in my mind,” DeVries said. “Not all of us coaches completely agree on all of that. There are times where it's like, we've got to get a paint touch somehow. And I agree. I'm just joking, I don't want to shoot 70 3s. But I think the strength of our team is definitely shooting. ...
“We're gonna have to take a lot of 3s and we're gonna have to make some.”
There's a reason every coach in America wants a 7-footer like Baylor's Austin. But I picture the big man standing in the middle of the zone Sunday night, completely useless as a Wragge 3 floats over his head.
“It's harder to block those,” DeVries said, grinning.
Greg McDermott and his staff have empowered players to take open shots with no hesitation. You like the look? Fire away. On one condition: If your teammate also has an open look, make the extra pass. Sometimes that means giving up a great look, but that's how the Jays have fostered unselfishness.
If they are fortunate enough to advance to the Sweet 16, skeptics will fall back on the old axiom: “You live by the three, you die by the three.”
And it's true that it's hard to shoot 40 percent from the 3-point line night after night after night, especially in March. Eventually you go 6 for 25 and lose. The margin for error is bigger if you get to the free-throw line. If you get layups.
I studied the numbers: 44.6 percent of Creighton's field-goal attempts are 3s. No Final Four team in history has a percentage higher than 41.8 (Louisville 2005).
But in a one-game scenario, Creighton might be the most terrifying team in the whole tournament. And it's not just because of Doug McDermott.
Why did Jahenns Manigat pass the ball? Because he knows his math.
“He knows that shot is probably as good as a layup,” Greg McDermott said, “only it counts for one more point.”
3 > 2.
Put that on a T-shirt. <-Fear Ameer
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