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*if shit falls their way
12. North Carolina
I know this will come across like an "if my aunt had a penis, she'd be my uncle" statement, but if North Carolina hadn't lost to Belmont and UAB, I think the Tar Heels would be ranked no. 1 in the country. After all, nobody in college basketball has a trio of wins nearly as impressive as North Carolina's victories over Louisville, Michigan State, and Kentucky. I know that losing those two games raises red flags for some people, but remember that Belmont is good enough to make the NCAA tournament (and get absolutely destroyed like they always do). Plus, North Carolina wasn't playing Stanford football those two games, so they really shouldn't even count.
North Carolina fans are probably sick of hearing about P.J. Hairston and Leslie McDonald, who are both suspended indefinitely. It doesn't appear that they're going to become eligible anytime soon, and the Heels are doing fine without them. But Hairston and McDonald remain important because they are decent shooters and North Carolina is one outside shooting threat away from being the best team in college basketball. As of now, these Tar Heels are unlike any Roy Williams Carolina team I've seen — they have a nasty streak, they play great defense, they dominate the boards, and they know how to win ugly. Unfortunately, they can't shoot to save their lives.1 Williams has had physical big men before, like Tyler "Tim Tebow of basketball" Hansbrough and Sean "Foul on James Augustine" May. But he's never had an entire team like this, which is why if the Heels had any perimeter offense besides Marcus Paige, they could be almost unbeatable.
Speaking of Paige, it can't be understated how great he has been this season. There are many different ways to approach voting on the Wooden Award, but if you're like me and you think it should go to the most valuable player in America, then Paige should be near the top of your list. I'd entertain arguments for Marcus Smart, Melvin Ejim, Jabari Parker, Chaz Williams, Russ Smith, C.J. Fair, Jordan Adams, and maybe Xavier Thames and Jahii Carson, but outside of Doug McDermott and Shabazz Napier, I don't think anybody has been more important to their team than Paige. Roy Williams's point guards are always valuable, but Paige has barely any perimeter help and he has been forced to carry North Carolina's entire offense for long stretches of games.
Paige's early-season performance has had a Battle of the Alamo vibe. The odds are stacked against him and he's basically just trying to keep his team's head above water until Hairston and McDonald return. There's a chance that, like the real Alamo battle, those reinforcements won't ever arrive and Paige will eventually be overwhelmed. But he's already made it clear that he won't go down without a fight. ~~~~~~
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