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When will USC be elite again?
Timetable for Trojans to be contenders again, plus rising draft prospects
Updated: September 30, 2013, 11:22 AM ET
By Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay | ESPN Insider
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Marqise Lee
Harry How/Getty Images
How long will it be before USC is again a national title contender?
Each week during the college football season, Mel Kiper and Todd McShay kick off the week by settling a debate, and then look at emerging NFL prospects and peek ahead to next week.
The discussion: How soon can USC be a title contender again?
Mel Kiper: There's a pretty good argument to be made that the USC job is more appealing now than when Pete Carroll left for Seattle. I mean that.
Think about it:
• The threat of probation and scholarship losses is gone. The punishment has come down, and the worst of it will soon be over.
• You're not taking over for Carroll, who had a brilliant run. You're taking over for Lane Kiffin, who had an awful run.
But what Kiffin did not do was tarnish the brand of USC football. In fact, the fact that Kiffin has been fired shows that people understand he wasn't good enough to lead the brand. Just because the guy couldn't drive the Lamborghini doesn't make the car any less valuable. Yes, Kiffin faced challenges due to the scholarship restrictions (so maybe the air in the tires was low), but his failure still leaves the feeling that the program wasn't the problem. That USC recruited so well during the Kiffin era, even with those restrictions, reinforces this for me. This is a team that doesn't need to change its uniforms for a big game. This is a powerful football brand.
Bottom line: There isn't a coach that won't take a call from USC. I'm not saying the Trojans can just go and get anybody they want, but this is one of the great jobs in college football. You have the fan base as the biggest football show in town (even with UCLA's resurgence), you sit in the middle of a massive region full of talent and you even have sparkling new facilities.
Whether it's Jack Del Rio, Kevin Sumlin, Tim DeRuyter, Chris Peterson or any other number of candidates -- I still think Mike Riley would do a great job -- if Pat Haden hires someone with a track record of success, he's going to have a program that can be in contention for national titles within the next few years. The key is the track record of success. USC is always going to have talent; a better coach and leader will have them back near the top soon.
McShay: Traditional powerhouses that go through a down period can be restored quickly so long as the program finds the right leader. Alabama, Florida and even USC (back in 2002) are all examples of big-time programs that had begun to sputter but quickly got back on track after landing the right coaches (Nick Saban, Urban Meyer and Carroll).
EnlargeDuke Ihenacho
AP Photo/Jack Dempsey
Jack Del Rio, who played at USC, has been mentioned as a possible replacement for Lane Kiffin.
What makes the right guy? To me, it's someone who can assemble the right coaching staff to accomplish the following three goals: (1) identify talent; (2) develop talent; and (3) establish program discipline. (For the last one, I mean that from the classroom to practices to games you get your athletes to fulfill their responsibilities and execute at a high level.)
Taking this from the abstract to the literal, however, just what kind of a situation will the next Trojans coach be walking into? A pretty good one. USC has everything a coach needs to succeed in terms of tradition, support from the school and facilities. And unlike during Kiffin's tenure, the effect from the scholarship restrictions shouldn't be too bad (they are set to expire following the 2014 season).
While Kiffin and his staff definitely failed in many ways, the reality is that Kiffin took this job when the team's talent level was on the decline. The Trojans recruited well during his tenure and did an adequate job at player development, but these were not the Carroll-era Trojans that had an average of 7.6 draft picks and four first- and second-rounders each year from 2003-09. From 2010-13 USC averaged 5.8 draft picks and just 1.5 first- and second-rounders. This decline in talent level can't all be put on Kiffin. Carroll got out at the right time, with both the NCAA bearing down on the program and the team's recruiting slipping a bit from the elite level of its previous seasons.
Looking ahead, USC won't be losing too much off this year's roster. WR Marqise Lee has a first-round grade, but the rest of the team's NFL draft prospects have mid-round grades: DE Morgan Breslin, RB Silas Redd, DE Devon Kennard and OLB Dion Bailey.
The bottom line for USC is that if it hires the right coach, it won't take long for the Trojans to be back on track. The restrictions will slow that process a little bit, so if it took programs like Alabama and Florida two years to become national title contenders, it might take USC three years to get the talent back up to that point.
But this is still a fantastic job. Very few coaches in the country have better gigs than the one that is now open at USC, in my opinion.
On the rise
McShay: LSU Tigers QB Zach Mettenberger and Georgia Bulldogs QB Aaron Murray
Few players in the country have made more money (as it pertains to his draft stock and future NFL earnings) in the past month than Mettenberger. I gave him a seventh-round grade in the offseason based off of 2012 tape study, but right now he looks like a QB with enough developmental upside to warrant mid-round consideration -- and some think even more highly of him than that.
He is more confident in everything he's doing, from pre-snap reads to progressions to accuracy to his command of the huddle. The biggest weakness in his game remains his lack of mobility, and in order to overcome that in the NFL he'll have to be great mentally (pre-snap reads, diagnosing coverages on drops, and quickly and efficiently going through progressions).
Right now he's a developmental backup in the NFL, one whose ideal situation would be similar to those of Ryan Mallett in New England and Brock Osweiler in Denver, but considering how much improvement he's shown in a short time under new offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, he's given NFL teams much more reason to believe in him than before.
As for Murray, we gave him a fourth-/fifth-round grade coming into the season, and he's certainly helped his cause as a senior. He's undersized, still needs to be more consistent with ball placement and his tempo, timing and trajectory on certain throws.
But I'm really impressed with how he handled the pressure of the moment in the win over LSU, further distancing himself from his reputation for not coming through in big games. He's improved his velocity this season but has always had adequate-to-good arm strength.
EnlargeJared Abbrederis
Andrew Weber/USA TODAY Sports
Jared Abbrederis had over 200 receiving yards against OSU on Saturday.
Kiper: Jared Abbrederis, WR, Wisconsin Badgers
He's not a first-rounder. He's almost certainly not even a two. But Abbrederis will go somewhere in the middle of the draft next May, and he's going to help an NFL team. If you predicted how the Ohio State-Wisconsin game would go, you might have figured the Buckeyes would stick star corner Bradley Roby on Abbrederis and take him out of the game so Wisconsin would have to stay persistent with the run. Instead, Abbrederis got the upper hand on Roby, and finished with 10 catches for 207 yards and a TD catch. Ohio State actually did a pretty good job against the run -- it was Abbrederis they couldn't stop.
Abbrederis is a good route-runner, has strong hands and knows how to create separation both through changing speeds, and with little veteran moves such as hand play. You saw him keep Roby away with his left hand and catch the ball with his right on Saturday. Roby had to hold Abbrederis and actually got away with a level of contact that wouldn't work for him on Sundays. One quiet note on Abbrederis: for a guy who will probably run in the 4.55-6 range, he's a big-play regular. He's averaged over 17 yards per catch in each of the last two seasons and is at 17.3 this year.
Almost famous
Kiper: Zach Kerr, DT, Delaware Blue Hens
At 6-foot-2, 320 pounds, Kerr moves remarkably well, like a guy who weighs 70 pounds less. So how does he end up at Delaware? Well, he was a big-time high school athlete and actually played for a couple of seasons at Maryland (and he did see a lot of the field) before he transferred here. On Saturday against James Madison his athleticism was again on display. He had seven tackles, picked up a half sack and was just constantly disruptive.
At the next level, I can see Kerr in virtually any scheme. He's athletic and can be a three-tech attacking gaps, but he's also a really good run-stopper and can line up over the center and take on two gaps. But he's going to be an NFL starter or at worst a strong rotation player on a good defensive line.
McShay: RB Antonio Andrews and LB Andrew Jackson, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
The Hilltoppers beat Navy this week in a way you might not expect from a Bobby Petrino-coached win: with a strong run game and disciplined defense.
Andrews, who projects to be high on the list of priority free-agent RBs in the 2014 class, provided NFL scouts with a good tape to study on Saturday, rushing for 182 yards and two scores on 32 carries.
Jackson, whom we gave a third-round grade during preseason tape study, is now our fifth-ranked ILB. He finished with seven tackles against Navy, including one TFL. He really impressed me with his discipline versus the option, as he read his keys and did a good job of scraping down the line, keeping blockers off his body. And the few times I saw him take chances shooting gaps, he delivered with the tackle or at least re-routed the ball-carrier.
The big question
McShay: Can Washington score against Stanford's defense?
The Huskies' offense is headlined by three fast-rising prospects who will be facing a big test in the Cardinal's complex, physical and disciplined defense.
UW QB Keith Price has regained his confidence and is performing well this season after struggling in 2012, RB Bishop Sankey is a workhorse coming off a 40-carry performance in the win over Arizona, and WR Kasen Williams is a veteran possession receiver with good route-running skills and strong hands.
The Stanford defense has plenty of talent as well, including three guys in our top 140 prospects (all of whom have mid-round grades and are on the rise): OLB Trent Murphy, LB Shayne Skov and S Ed Reynolds.
Kiper: Can Maryland do to Florida State what they just did to West Virginia?
No, I'm not saying the Terps have any shot to shut out the Seminoles -- and certainly not in Tallahassee. But after watching West Virginia beat Oklahoma State on Saturday, you could argue that Maryland's 37-0 thrashing of the Mountaineers last week is one of the more impressive results of the college football season so far. The Terps will come in at 4-0, they're allowing just 10.3 points per game and under 4 yards per play so far, and they'll have had two weeks to prepare. Florida State got the win this weekend in Boston College, but they came out sluggish and got behind. Florida State should win this game, but if the Noles are looking past Maryland with Clemson on the calendar the week after, they could slip up.
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Mel Kiper Jr.
Football analyst
Archive
ESPN NFL Draft analyst since 1984
Contributes to SportsCenter and ESPN Radio
Writes weekly for ESPN Insider
Todd McShay
Scouts Inc.
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ESPN College Football and NFL Draft Analyst
Joined ESPN in 2006
Played quarterback in high school and was a backup QB for the University of Richmond. -------------------
I wanna go to where the martyrs went
the brown figures on the walls of my apart-a-ment...
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