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Subject: "WRATH OF THE MATH: HINKIE ERA BEGINS IN PHILLY" Previous topic | Next topic
Guinness
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Sat May-11-13 01:41 PM

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"WRATH OF THE MATH: HINKIE ERA BEGINS IN PHILLY"


  

          

separate post!

needless to say, i'm extremely happy with the hiring of any disciple of metric boy morey. even if he fails to turn things around, it's a welcome departure from the prehistoric tyranny of collins' gut instinct.

an article about him from four years back:

http://www.nba.com/rockets/news/Higher_Learning-287072-34.html

money quote:

"I’'m probably pretty boring to watch a game with because I’'m all about expected values. I don'’t even care if it goes in or not, I’m all about, '‘Should it go in?’' I can live with randomness. I mean, if it’'s a close game in the end, yeah, I’'m just like anyone else. But I just want us to play the odds all the time.”"

we can nitpick details like whether chuck hayes lived up to expectations, but the gist of the story is that hinkie is a smart guy who has a rational approach to team-building. that hasn't been the case in philly in a looooooooooong time.

  

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Topic Outline
Subject Author Message Date ID
does this make bynum's return more likely?
May 11th 2013
1
wonder if you hire one of our young coaches
May 11th 2013
2
i'd prefer someone from outside sixers org
May 11th 2013
3
      NO MICHAEL CURRY PLEASE, KTHANXBYE
May 11th 2013
10
I don't know shit about analytics, but I'm sure Evan Turner...
May 11th 2013
4
not unless you're into shit-shares
May 11th 2013
5
      So where does he end up?
May 14th 2013
26
           hard to say.
May 18th 2013
36
Where Does He Begin?
May 11th 2013
6
either way its more than a 1 year process
May 11th 2013
8
Oh, Most Definitely
May 11th 2013
9
stacking assets, i guess.
May 11th 2013
12
      OK...Which Coach?
May 11th 2013
13
           Don't care, as long as he's with the program.
May 12th 2013
18
Hahaha..SPM has his own Morey now...
May 11th 2013
7
Cheers To Joshua Harris For Not Wasting Another Season To Revamp
May 11th 2013
11
Do they have the dough to lure back former Sixer Lionel Hollins
May 11th 2013
14
Hollins & Vin were playing Job Russian Roulette in Round One
May 12th 2013
16
No way.
May 12th 2013
17
Nope...no more ex-sixers,
May 12th 2013
19
Bravo for them...
May 11th 2013
15
the perception of metrics is so skewed, anyway.
May 12th 2013
20
      like Beane in MLB, every organization will be using them to some degree
May 12th 2013
21
Nice...
May 14th 2013
22
this dude and Chip in the same city?
May 14th 2013
23
Greatest coach in 76ers history shits on analytics
May 14th 2013
24
Fuck that guy!
May 14th 2013
29
I don't really disagree with anything he said here, tho clearly it's
May 17th 2013
34
How much leeway does he have?
May 14th 2013
25
I'd say he has complete autonomy.
May 14th 2013
27
      For how long is the question?
May 14th 2013
28
           4-5 years minimum...
May 14th 2013
30
                Yeah
May 14th 2013
31
man, every day is a nice surprise with this dude.
May 17th 2013
32
Mike Missanelli/Hinkie audio:
May 17th 2013
33
kelvin sampson being interviewed.
May 18th 2013
35

Guinness
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Sat May-11-13 01:45 PM

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1. "does this make bynum's return more likely?"
In response to Reply # 0
Sat May-11-13 01:54 PM by Guinness

  

          

i'd say yes. the rox believe that getting a star is the hardest thing to do, and bynum is potentially that rare creature. it remains to be seen if his flamenco career will take off, but i'm trusting hinkie to make the right call here.

with all the CAPITAL LETTER IFs considered, a core of bynum, jrue and thad is pretty excellent, especially since the last two have relatively reasonable contracts.

OH AND IF THAD IS READING: START PRACTICING THREES MY DUDE

  

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ShawndmeSlanted
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Sat May-11-13 02:01 PM

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2. "wonder if you hire one of our young coaches"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

Jb Bickerstaff or Chris Finch (who supposedly was our offensive guru)

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

  

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Guinness
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Sat May-11-13 02:10 PM

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3. "i'd prefer someone from outside sixers org"
In response to Reply # 2


  

          

collins' assistant michael curry will be interviewed--and he's probably okay--but for a clean sweep, i want a coach with no loyalties or preconceived notions about the current personnel. change everything.

  

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Bombastic
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Sat May-11-13 04:12 PM

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10. "NO MICHAEL CURRY PLEASE, KTHANXBYE"
In response to Reply # 3


  

          

>collins' assistant michael curry will be interviewed--and
>he's probably okay--but for a clean sweep, i want a coach with
>no loyalties or preconceived notions about the current
>personnel. change everything.

  

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TheRealBillyOcean
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Sat May-11-13 02:24 PM

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4. "I don't know shit about analytics, but I'm sure Evan Turner..."
In response to Reply # 0


          

isn't analytic friendly, right?

<---https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01DL9AVTQ

  

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Guinness
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Sat May-11-13 03:08 PM

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5. "not unless you're into shit-shares"
In response to Reply # 4


  

          

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
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Tue May-14-13 08:37 PM

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26. "So where does he end up?"
In response to Reply # 5


          

Where's his value right now?

- Swap disappointing #2's with Minny? Derrick Williams for Evan? Not sure Evan really fits what the Wolves are looking for in a 3.
- Evan for Wilson Chandler?
- Turner for Terrence Ross (and filler, if needed)?
- Turner and #11 for Stuck Dogg and #7?
- Turner and #11 to Cleveland for #4 or #5 if Porter is already gone.
- Utah for the #14?

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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Guinness
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Sat May-18-13 02:28 PM

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36. "hard to say."
In response to Reply # 26


  

          

kind of a rotten chicken or rotten egg situation with the sixers' offense. did they somehow amass a collection of guys who can't get to the free throw line and only take midrange jumpers or was that a product of collins' offensive "system?"

there's a chance all of these dudes are undervalued. then again other teams might think the same, and believe a change of scenery will benefit someone like turner. he's a miserable offensive player, but he did raise his 3PT% from 24% to 37% over the last year.

as hinkie is an adherent to the NO MIDRANGE EVER school of thought, it'll be interesting to see how these guys adapt.

  

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RexLongfellow
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Sat May-11-13 03:14 PM

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6. "Where Does He Begin?"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

Moved from the other post:

It'll be interesting to see the type of players he'll try to
get, along with the coaching staff.

Here's the salaries:
http://hoopshype.com/salaries/philadelphia.htm

And here's the free agents:
http://www.hoopsworld.com/2013-nba-free-agents

Some decisions to make

  

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ShawndmeSlanted
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Sat May-11-13 03:48 PM

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8. "either way its more than a 1 year process"
In response to Reply # 6


  

          

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

  

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RexLongfellow
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Sat May-11-13 03:56 PM

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9. "Oh, Most Definitely"
In response to Reply # 8


  

          

The biggest thing they have is The Damaja locked up, which is good. But this is a huge off-season to get them in the right direction. I have no idea if they want to roll the dice on Bynum, but there's a crop of FA's that he can at least start the process.

Plus the hiring of a head coach to go along with his vision is critical

  

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Guinness
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Sat May-11-13 05:53 PM

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12. "stacking assets, i guess."
In response to Reply # 6
Sat May-11-13 05:58 PM by Guinness

  

          

sixers are pretty tapped out after giving up harkless, vucevic and a first rounder in the bynum deal. so basically:

jrue - young all-star on a cheapish contract
thad - good player on a average deal
moultrie - cheap, young and played well in tiny minutes
lottery pick for this draft
hawes/kwame - expiring deals and *okay* bench bigs
evan turner - former #2 pick who could use a change in scenery, heading into restricted FA
lavoy - relatively cheap young big, not particularly good

that's pretty much it. i guess you look around to see if you can get any protected 1st or 2nd round picks for hawes, lavoy or turner. see if anyone is high on thad enough to give them something decent, rather than a salary dump.

go into next year with the idea of:

bynum
thad (moultrie backup)
SG/SF lotto pick/FA signing
jrue

  

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RexLongfellow
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Sat May-11-13 06:46 PM

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13. "OK...Which Coach?"
In response to Reply # 12


  

          

At the very least the coach and the GM MUST be on the same page with regards to either a dump season and developing player, or the GM acquisitions to get the style of play that he sees is most effective

Don't know which coach is available, or if he'll take a chance on a newcomer (maybe Shaw, or even Aaron McKie)

  

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Guinness
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18. "Don't care, as long as he's with the program."
In response to Reply # 13


  

          

Trusting Hinkie on the pick

  

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LAbeathustla
Member since Jan 24th 2004
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Sat May-11-13 03:32 PM

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7. "Hahaha..SPM has his own Morey now..."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

------------------------------------
2019 CABG Survivor

2016 OK Survivor Champion

be about it or be without it

RIP GOATs

  

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Bombastic
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Sat May-11-13 04:15 PM

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11. "Cheers To Joshua Harris For Not Wasting Another Season To Revamp"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

took a big cut in his first offseason last year, it flopped but was worth a shot, if Bynum signs here that means he really really ain't planning on playing.

What's the new sign-and-trade rule again?

  

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Warren Coolidge
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Sat May-11-13 06:55 PM

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14. "Do they have the dough to lure back former Sixer Lionel Hollins"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

away from Memphis??

that would be a solid move..

unlikely though I think..

  

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Bombastic
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16. "Hollins & Vin were playing Job Russian Roulette in Round One"
In response to Reply # 14


  

          

once Hollins' squad won that matchup (now looking like they're at least getting a Conference Final trip out of it) he was pretty much a lock to re-sign with Memphis.

  

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Guinness
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Sun May-12-13 09:59 AM

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17. "No way."
In response to Reply # 14


  

          

His well-publicized criticism of metrics from earlier this year makes it a non-starter, even if he was leaving Memphis (which he's not).

  

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gmltheone
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Sun May-12-13 10:57 AM

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19. "Nope...no more ex-sixers, "
In response to Reply # 14


  

          

>away from Memphis??
>
>that would be a solid move..
>
>unlikely though I think..
>
>

Time to shut that down. Been to that well too many times already.

----------------------------
Same as it ever was!

  

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gmltheone
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Sat May-11-13 09:54 PM

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15. "Bravo for them..."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

They got the process right and they decided to change the way they do things. Beyond metrics, but there is a single voice now and you get a clear vision of the team now. Owner/GM/Coaching staff all on the same page.

I'm not all that up on metrics, but I'd rather not have a coach who admitted he would rather blow his brains out than try it.

Who knows if any of this will work out, but it's not like what they've been doing has delivered stifling mediocrity.

----------------------------
Same as it ever was!

  

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Guinness
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20. "the perception of metrics is so skewed, anyway."
In response to Reply # 15


  

          

all it takes is reading a little of that article linked above to see that dude is a basketball guy all the way, just with an analytic bent. people think it's nerds with calculators or some shit.

hinkie:

"The advent of the restricted area, in combination with the perimeter touch rules, has changed the game toward quick guys in a way that the league doesn'’t really know what to do with," he explains. "Now what you see are slashers and a lot of players who consistently attack the rim. A lot of teams are trying to figure out how to combat that, so shot-blocking, length and athleticism are at an even bigger premium that they ever were before, because they'’re in the same short supply. So if you’'re a legendary shot blocker that can stand on the weakside and when a guy drives you can contort your body to try to block his shot without fouling him, well that makes you really valuable.

“But another way to attack that is with quickness. If you can'’t find players who can play—and play well —above the rim, then you’'re forced to find another way to compete.

"Chuck Hayes, to me, falls into that category as a 6’-5’’ big who doesn’t block many shots or play above the rim, but uses his lateral quickness in a way to be a tremendous help defender. He'’s already an excellent individual one-on-one defender, but he'’s also proven to be a tremendous help defender for his teammates in that, when you get beat on pick-and-rolls -– and everyone does -– and when you get beat off the dribble by these great players in our game with tremendous speed -– and everyone does -– to have a guy who can physically get there to defend or take a charge is huge. For weakside bigs, it often becomes a race vs. the ball handler to see who can get to the other side of the restricted area first. These dynamics have created a niche that allows a player that’'s less than prototypical to have a big role on a team like ours."

  

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Bombastic
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21. "like Beane in MLB, every organization will be using them to some degree"
In response to Reply # 20


  

          

if they aren't already......soon enough.

As a result there's still gonna be value in 'Baseball/Basketball Men' (think Pat Gillick) as well so to me it's all about finding that balance between watching guys on the court & then finding new/innovative ways to measure what they're giving you.

I'm curious as to whether Hinkie is gonna bring that second-round-pick strategy that Morey has employed which I love, it helped them on guys like Parsons and would have saved the Sixers from having to give guys like Kyle Korver/Willie Green/Lavoy Allen before giving them that more-lucrative-than-they-might-be-really-worth-second-contract.

My oldest & best friend from childhood works in NYC has Josh Harris' oldest & best friend from childhood as a business client, said Harris is pretty much successful in any venture he's gone into.

He bought the Sixers at an absolute bargain-basement price in the midst of the lockout when Stern was far more concerned with other ownership situations & Comcast wanted to cut ties.

Dude was inspired by seeing the way the Phillies were able to practically print money once they started spending some of their own & putting a winner on the field. He saw what the audience was like in the prime Croce/AI/LB era as well (by the way, bringing AI back to work on a CSN pre/post-game studio show would be a very strong move if AI is up for it).

He's got a town with a unique passion for their sports who will spend loot well above average as long as the team is performing at that same level.

His goal is to do the same with the Sixers who are obviously in a very distant fourth right now.

It was Harris who made it clear to everyone in the organization that they were taking absolutely nothing from last year's second-round-and-seven-games-with-the-C's run, that the team had 'maxed out' for where their talent was.

That led to the Bynum deal which obviously hasn't worked out but it showed he was willing to take the big swing & not be satisfied with these kind of minor results.

Re-signing Jrue when they did worked as well.

Despite all their horrible signings last offseason, all those deals are short-term and movable.

I'm hoping that now that he's got 'His Guy' in Hinkie that he's gonna let the GM tweak the roster while just providing full support/resources while letting him shape this squad into something for the long-term.

Despite where we're at currently, this is the best I've felt about the Sixers since '03.

  

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gmltheone
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22. "Nice..."
In response to Reply # 0
Tue May-14-13 04:12 PM by gmltheone

  

          

Handled the presser well.

Came off like a guy who likes lots of information to make informed decisions.

Smartly dodged the meathead Bynum questions.

Even deftly responded to a Royce White/Jeremy Lin question.

No talk about his gut.

With more and more information out now I like the hire, but more importantly I love the process behind the decision as well. It's not some retread hire or call back to past sixer glory. Just a smart guy who has worked behind the scenes and is ready to make his mark.

  

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sfMatt
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Tue May-14-13 08:04 PM

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23. "this dude and Chip in the same city?"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

it's going to be fun being a sports fan in illadelph

you can bet Chip will mine this guy for his take on shit...

  

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ShawndmeSlanted
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Tue May-14-13 08:11 PM

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24. "Greatest coach in 76ers history shits on analytics"
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2013/05/13/larry-brown-advanced-analytics-dont-work-in-basketball/

PHILADELPHIA (CBS) – Former Sixers coach Larry Brown joined 94WIP’s Anthony Gargano and Glen Macnow on Monday to discuss the team’s hiring of former Houston Rockets VP Sam Hinkie as their new President and General Manager.

Hinkie has a reputation of being a leader in the use of advanced analytics in both player selection and the way the team plays. Brown commented on the use of advanced statistics in basketball:

Well, any information you get, Anthony , is going to help you, but I’m not one of those guys. Basketball is not like baseball. I’ll give you an example of this analytics —I got fired from Charlotte, we’re all aware of that. I sat down with some of those guys. They got rid of Raymond Felton because he was going to make seven million dollars and kept D.J. Augustin who was making $2.5 and they told me D.J. at 2.5 was better than Raymond at seven . And I said if that was the case I would have started D.J. I’m not saying they’re wrong or stuff like that.

I’ll give you another example: two days ago, I’m listening to some of these NBA analysts about why Oklahoma City is struggling, and it’s obvious you don’t have Westbrook, one of your best players, you’re going to struggle. But they were saying how Ibaka was a guy that was being hurt the most by not playing with Westbrook and they said that if you look at the stats, Ibaka is a better mid-range shooter than Kevin Durant. I had to laugh, I said Ibaka takes jump shots where he is never guarded because people have to guard Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Every shot Kevin Durant takes he’s got one, two, or three people in his face.

I mean you can use that knowledge and help things, but at the end of the day it doesn’t work in basketball in my mind. I’m not saying all the information I ever got about this guy shoots better from this point on the floor, but if you rebound, if you defend, you share the ball, you have a better opportunity to win—and in the NBA, to me, the rocket science is this: acquire draft choices, get great players, have good contracts, and have a coach there that can develop young talent because so many of the teams are getting younger and younger. So you better have coaches there that can teach, rather than coaches there that can analyze whether stats mean something or not.

Brown also spoke about Josh Harris and the new Sixers ownership:

I look at this new ownership group, and they’re phenomenal. I think of what they did—they amnestied Elton Brand, they went after Bynum and took a risk. They’ve put their money where their mouth is. They’re working hard to succeed, but I’ll give you this silly stat. Tony Dileo probably got fired because they got Bynum right? Well Houston wanted Bynum so badly, they just didn’t have enough resources. Now think about that. Now just think about that. They tried so hard to get Bynum, and they couldn’t get him because they didn’t have the resources that probably Tony , and Rod Thorn, and Billy King, acquired. At the end of the day, just like I said before, all these great teams in the NBA that are able to make moves, they are able to do it because they have great players, or they have great contracts, or they have draft picks, or they have coaches that develop young players and it isn’t going to change—it’s not like money ball. And the last time I looked at it Oakland hasn’t won a World Series since Finley left, right?

---
"though time has passed, im still the future" (c) black thought

  

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gmltheone
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Tue May-14-13 08:48 PM

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29. "Fuck that guy!"
In response to Reply # 24


  

          

1. He's not the best coach in sixer history. That would be billy cunningham.

2. Whatever goodwill he earned he shitted on with the slimy way he left town.

3. I hope billy king hires that dirt bag so deron can get him fired again.
----------------------------
Same as it ever was!

  

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Bombastic
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34. "I don't really disagree with anything he said here, tho clearly it's"
In response to Reply # 24


  

          

coming from a place where he's upset he didn't get that 'advisor' role he was shooting for.

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
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Tue May-14-13 08:23 PM

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25. "How much leeway does he have?"
In response to Reply # 0


          

Hinkie's at a bit of an advantage because he didn't inherit an aging team like Morey did but will Philly fans and the Sixers front office be happy with another step back and potentially three years of no playoffs while Hinkie waits for the right deal to come around?

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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Guinness
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Tue May-14-13 08:37 PM

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27. "I'd say he has complete autonomy."
In response to Reply # 25


  

          

Josh Harris made it clear that he's the owner actually calling the shots, and he brought in Hinkie for an interview last offseason too. He's obviously wanted to go this direction from day one, but Collins' popularity made him wait it out.

  

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SoulHonky
Member since Jan 21st 2003
25919 posts
Tue May-14-13 08:42 PM

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28. "For how long is the question?"
In response to Reply # 27


          

Daryl Morey was one Bryan Colangelo Pulls His Head Out of His Ass For A Second away from having another playoff-less year and probably on the unemployment line. I'm not sure Hinkie will have the same grace period, especially since he has to decide on Day 1 what the hell to do with Bynum.

Hinkie has a lot more pressure on him to start than Morey did.

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades

  

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gmltheone
Member since Jun 11th 2003
8564 posts
Tue May-14-13 08:51 PM

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30. "4-5 years minimum..."
In response to Reply # 28


  

          

Harris sounded like he had a mancrush today. I don't get the feeling they're going after a quick flip. This was the direction they've wanted to go since they brought the team.


----------------------------
Same as it ever was!

  

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Guinness
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Tue May-14-13 09:13 PM

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31. "Yeah"
In response to Reply # 30


  

          

They both have stated similar philosophies: you make the right decision enough times and good results will outnumber the bad. I don't think Harris is going to get bent out of shape by a few missteps as long as they're ones that made sense at the time (like the Bynum deal).

  

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Guinness
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Fri May-17-13 03:31 PM

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32. "man, every day is a nice surprise with this dude."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

a minor note, but still...

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/58390/injury-prevention-technology-at-the-combine

Jesse Wright, strength coach for the 76ers, recently got himself a technology budget, something he'd never had before with the Sixers, a gift from his new GM Sam Hinkie.

He's stressed about it though.

"You've got a blank slate!" I said to him, failing to reassure.

"I can't get everything," he told me, "but I need to get the right things."

  

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Bombastic
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Fri May-17-13 03:58 PM

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33. "Mike Missanelli/Hinkie audio:"
In response to Reply # 32


  

          

http://m.975thefanatic.com/2013/05/the-new-76ers-gm-sam-hinkie-joins-missanelli-to-discuss-his-plans-with-the-76ers-stating-our-goal-is-to-get-the-team-to-be-championship-caliber-that-doesnt-happen-overnight/

  

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Guinness
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Sat May-18-13 02:15 PM

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35. "kelvin sampson being interviewed."
In response to Reply # 0


  

          

http://www.csnphilly.com/basketball-philadelphia-sixers/sixers-coaching-candidate-kelvin-sampson

  

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