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http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9037528/jay-bilas-ranks-top-68-teams-nation-college-basketball
This college basketball season is not as wide open or as bizarre as the little brains might suggest. Yes, the selection committee is likely to make public statements this year saying things are "wide open" and that it's an "incredibly competitive field" and "the job has never been more challenging" and "a lot of teams look the same."
But here's the thing: They say these things every year. In fact, it would be a wonderful exercise for someone (ESPN perhaps? Hint, hint ...) to go back and piece together some of the public statements of the selection committee chairpersons to prove that most say the same things over and over.
The reality is, if all of the teams actually looked the same, then the exercise should be quite easy. The teams that have won the most games against quality competition should simply be ranked in order. Of course, not all of these teams are the same. Saying such a thing is nothing but a rationalization to insulate one from criticism.
The Bilas Index, on the other hand, cuts through all of the selection committee doublespeak and gets right to the heart of the matter: Which teams are the most accomplished and the best?
The current chair of the selection committee should just admit publicly that the one authoritative and ultimate statement on basketball value, worth and achievement is The Bilas Index. All other declarations, whether by committee or individual, are just noise that is best filtered with Beats by Dre, bumping the urban philosopher Young Jeezy while poppin' bottles in the club. Because, that's what winners (aka The Bilastrator and his peeps) do. You and the selection committee will be freed up to join The Bilastrator at said club (although my security detail will not allow you into the VIP area) with all of the time you will save by making The Bilas Index your definitive word on the subject of basketball merit.
In formulating The Bilas Index, The Bilastrator himself studies the very best and most reliable metrics, numbers and analytics available, including ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI), the Sagarin ratings, KenPom.com, Basketball Prospectus and the work of John Gasaway and his minions, the UPS Team Performance Index (TPI) and Synergy Sports Technology, in order to create a register of teams, ranked in order, that have accomplished the most, are the best, and are best suited to win in big games.
The Bilas Index is so coveted that Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski storms the court just to get an early peek at it.
We've added a new wrinkle this week. Included in our write-ups are a look at what makes each team capable of winning games in the NCAA tournament (although sadly, not all 68 Bilas Index teams will make the field) and what could trip each team up, in addition to a look at their key wins and losses -- "H" represents a home game, "A" an away game and "N" a neutral court game).
As you and the selection committee are taken to areas of the game you could never fathom before The Bilas Index, just remember, you're quite welcome.
Moving out: Dayton, Northern Iowa
Coming in: Valparaiso, Harvard
1. Indiana Hoosiers (Previous ranking: 1)
Why IU can win: The Hoosiers are excellent on the offensive end, and have the top-rated offense in the nation, according to KenPom.com. Simply put, Indiana can score from every spot on the floor, which not all teams can do, and Tom Crean runs really good stuff, especially ball-screen action.
Why IU can lose: The Hoosiers have been beaten on the glass in losses, and have lost the physical battle in those games. If they allow an opponent to get into them and hit first, the Hoosiers can be had. That doesn't mean that IU cannot win a physical game, because they can. But if you don't get into IU physically, you can't beat the Hoosiers.
Wins: Georgetown (N), North Carolina (N), Minnesota (H), Michigan State (H, A), Michigan (H, A), Ohio State (A)
Losses: Butler (N), Wisconsin (H), Illinois (A), Minnesota (A), Ohio State (H)
2. Duke Blue Devils (Previous ranking: 4)
Why Duke can win: Duke is 18-0 with Ryan Kelly in the lineup. Kelly is an outstanding 3-point shooter, can drive the ball and is a smart passer. He helps stretch a defense and provides Mason Plumlee with room to operate without double-team coverage. Kelly is also Duke's best overall defender. Duke can score from every spot on the floor and has a stable point guard to run the show in Quinn Cook.
Why Duke can lose: The Blue Devils do not rebound well; they are so efficient on the offensive end that it hasn't been hurt too badly by any deficiencies on the glass. Duke also gets little from its bench, although that is only an issue with injuries and foul trouble in a particular game.
Wins: Kentucky (N), Florida Gulf Coast (H), Minnesota (N), VCU (N), Louisville (N), Ohio State (H), Temple (N), Davidson (N), Maryland (H), NC State (H), North Carolina (H, A)
Losses: NC State (A), Miami (A), Maryland (A), Virginia (A)
3. Louisville Cardinals (Previous ranking: 2)
Why Louisville can win: The Cards have the nation's best and most efficient defense, and always seem to play at their best during the month of March under Rick Pitino. Louisville has depth and is healthy going into postseason play.
Why Louisville can lose: Louisville is not a good shooting team, and ranks among the bottom third of Division I in 3-point shooting. Much of Louisville's offense is generated from its defense. So if you protect the ball, you can do a good defensive job on Louisville.
Wins: Missouri (N), Memphis (A), Kentucky (H), UConn (A), Pittsburgh (H), Marquette (H), Syracuse (A), Cincinnati (H), Notre Dame (H)
Losses: Duke (N), Syracuse (H), Villanova (A), Georgetown (A), Notre Dame (A)
4. Gonzaga Bulldogs (Previous ranking: 3)
Why Gonzaga can win: The Zags have an NBA front line and one of the most efficient offenses in the country. Gonzaga has the fourth-best effective field goal percentage in the nation and shoots 56 percent inside of the arc.
Why Gonzaga can lose: This is a tough team that can beat anyone. Mark Few has really good guards, but against a dynamic, pressure-defensive backcourt, Gonzaga can be beaten. That, however, beats a lot of really good teams.
Wins: Oklahoma (N), Davidson (N), Kansas State (N), Baylor (H), Oklahoma State (A), Saint Mary's (H, A)
Losses: Butler (A), Illinois
5. Florida Gators (Previous ranking: 5)
Why Florida can win: The Gators are the only team in the nation rated in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Why Florida can lose: The Gators have lost four of their last 10 games, and have given up leads and failed to finish down the stretch in close games. The Gators' wins have been convincing, but close games have gone the other way. At some point, it becomes a question mark. But if you blow people out, you don't have to worry about it. Florida's convincing wins have come at home, while its head-scratching losses have come on the road.
Wins: Wisconsin (H), Middle Tennessee (H), Marquette (H), Missouri (H), Ole Miss (H), Kentucky (H), Arkansas (H), Alabama (H)
Losses: Arizona (A), Kansas State (N), Arkansas (A), Missouri (A), Tennessee (A), Kentucky (A)
6. Kansas Jayhawks (Previous ranking: 6)
Why Kansas can win: The Jayhawks are very good defensively and have the best effective field goal percentage defense in the nation (41.3 percent). The main reason is the presence of Jeff Withey, who blocks and changes shots around the goal. Kansas has the best defense in the nation inside the arc.
Why Kansas can lose: The Jayhawks are inconsistent on the offensive end and go through scoring droughts. This is not a great passing team, which is unusual for Kansas.
Wins: Saint Louis (N), Colorado (H), Belmont (H), Ohio State (A), Temple (H), Iowa State (H, A), Baylor (H), Kansas State (H, A), Oklahoma (H), Oklahoma State (A)
Losses: Michigan State (N), Oklahoma State (H), TCU (A), Oklahoma (A), Baylor (A)
7. Michigan State Spartans (Previous ranking: 8)
Why Michigan State can win: It's nice to see the metrics finally catch up to The Bilas Index. The Spartans have a top-5 defense, and do a really good job of containing the ball and limiting opponents to one shot. With Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix, Tom Izzo has two big guys who can score and rebound. Really, the only home game in which Michigan State didn't deliver was Indiana. Otherwise, Sparty has taken care of business at home. When the Spartans can get out on the break, this is a very good team that can get to Atlanta.
Why Michigan State can lose: Michigan State still turns the ball over too much, although the Spartans' ball security has improved. Michigan State needs to have solid guard performances, especially from Keith Appling and Travis Trice. The shooting ability of Trice will be key in the postseason. He's a tough kid.
Wins: Kansas (N), Boise State (H), Iowa (A), Ohio State (H), Wisconsin (H, A), Illinois (H), Minnesota (H), Michigan (H)
Losses: UConn (N), Miami (A), Minnesota (A), Indiana (H, A), Ohio State (A), Michigan (A)
8. Georgetown Hoyas (Previous ranking: 7)
Why Georgetown can win: The Hoyas are excellent defensively, making it really difficult to get a clean, open shot inside the arc. Georgetown does not give up easy baskets, and this is a long, athletic and physical defense. And then there's Otto Porter Jr.. He is one of the five best players in the country, and is poised and mature on the floor. Porter is the kind of player who can carry a team.
Why Georgetown can lose: The Hoyas can struggle to score at times, with an offense that is rated 69th in the nation in efficiency. The Hoyas turn it over a bit too much, but are otherwise a good passing team.
Wins: UCLA (N), Tennessee (H), Notre Dame (A), Louisville (H), Marquette (H), Cincinnati (A), Syracuse (H, A), UConn
Losses: Indiana (N), Marquette (A), Pittsburgh (H), South Florida (A), Villanova (A)
9. Ohio State Buckeyes (Previous ranking: 10)
Why Ohio State can win: The Buckeyes have one of the best offensive forwards in the country in Deshaun Thomas and one of the best point guards in Aaron Craft. Ohio State is an improved offense that has a very low error rate, which helps its defense.
Why Ohio State can lose: The Buckeyes do not get consistent production out of their supporting cast, although the offense has been much better over the past month. If point production is left only to Thomas, Craft and Lenzelle Smith Jr., Ohio State could get bounced by a good team in the NCAA tournament.
Wins: Michigan (H), Iowa (H), Wisconsin (H), Minnesota (H), Michigan State (H), Indiana (A)
Losses: Duke (A), Kansas (H), Illinois (A), Michigan State (A), Michigan (A), Indiana (H), Wisconsin (A)
10. Miami (FL) Hurricanes (Previous ranking: 9)
Why Miami can win: The Canes are older, experienced and have a terrific point guard in Shane Larkin and a stretch 5 in Kenny Kadji. Miami plays a containment defense and really covers up in the lane, and forces the game into a slower, methodical tempo.
Why Miami can lose: Miami does not get to the free throw line, and does not hit when it gets there.
Wins: Michigan State (H), La Salle (H), North Carolina (H, A), Maryland (H), Duke (H), NC State (A), Virginia (H)
Losses: Florida Gulf Coast (A), Arizona (N), Indiana State (N), Wake Forest (A), Duke (A), Georgia Tech (H)
11. Michigan Wolverines (Previous ranking: 12)
Why Michigan can win: The Wolverines are very good offensively and are rated as the second-best offensive team in the nation, behind only Indiana and ahead of Duke and Gonzaga. Michigan runs good stuff, and has some very skilled players that understand the game. And John Beilein has Trey Burke, the best point guard in the country and Wooden Award favorite. Burke can control the game. The Wolverines do not beat themselves with turnovers.
Why Michigan can lose: Michigan is decent on the defensive end, but not great (the Wolverines can play defense without fouling, however). This is a young team that does not always play with a killer instinct or sense of urgency. The Wolverines don't get to the free throw line enough and can settle for jump shots.
Wins: Pittsburgh (N), Kansas State (N), NC State (H), Arkansas (H), Iowa (H), Minnesota (A), Illinois (H, A), Ohio State (H), Michigan State (H)
Losses: Ohio State (A), Indiana (H, A), Wisconsin (A), Michigan State (A), Penn State (A)
12. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Previous ranking: 13)
Why Oklahoma State can win: The Cowboys are athletic and can guard inside the arc and defend the lane. Oklahoma State is rated among the top 10 defensive teams in the country.
Why Oklahoma State can lose: Like several of the teams ranked in the top 25, Oklahoma State can go cold from the perimeter. Oklahoma State has some good shooters, but is not a great perimeter shooting team.
Wins: Tennessee (N), Akron (N), NC State (N), Iowa State (H), Kansas (A), Baylor (H), Oklahoma (H), Kansas State (H)
Losses: Gonzaga (H), Kansas State (A), Oklahoma (A), Baylor (A), Kansas (H), Iowa State (A)
13. New Mexico Lobos (Previous ranking: 11)
Why New Mexico can win: The Lobos are an outstanding defensive team that makes it difficult to get the ball into the paint and makes opponents score over the top of you. New Mexico recently hit 15 3-point shots against Air Force -- and lost. Air Force hit 15 of its own. The Lobos get to the foul line, the most efficient place to score on a basketball floor.
Why New Mexico can lose: New Mexico is not a great offensive team, and does not use or guard the 3-point line effectively. The Lobos rank just 58th in the country in offensive efficiency.
Wins: Davidson (H), UConn (N), Cincinnati (A), UNLV (H), Boise State (H, A), Colorado State (H, A), San Diego State (H)
Losses: South Dakota State (H), Saint Louis (A), San Diego State (A), UNLV (A), Air Force (A)
14. Arizona Wildcats (Previous ranking: 18)
Why Arizona can win: The Wildcats are a good rebounding team with some older, experienced players and some young and very talented players. Arizona can rebound and has some outstanding playmakers in Solomon Hill and Mark Lyons.
Why Arizona can lose: Arizona can be erratic and have lapses, especially on the defensive end. The Wildcats do not guard the 3-point line effectively, and Lyons does not always make quality decisions. With players in different stages of development, they are also at different stages of confidence.
Wins: Florida (H), Miami (N), San Diego State (N), Colorado (A), Stanford (H)
Losses: Oregon (A), UCLA (H, A), California (H), Colorado (A), USC (A)
15. Marquette Golden Eagles (Previous ranking: 19)
Why Marquette can win: The Golden Eagles are tough-minded and do everything to get the ball into the paint. Buzz Williams has calculated that on "paint touch" possessions, Marquette shoots 58 percent from the field. On "non-paint touch possessions," Marquette shoots 31 percent from the floor with fewer free throw attempts.
Why Marquette can lose: Marquette is solid on the defensive end, but not spectacular. The Golden Eagles are among the bottom third of Division I in 3-point shooting and turnover percentage, and they allow too many high-percentage second shots. Marquette has a very small margin for error.
Wins: Wisconsin (H), UConn (H), Georgetown (H), Pittsburgh (H, A), Syracuse (H), Notre Dame (H)
Losses: Butler (N), Florida (A), Wisconsin-Green Bay (A), Cincinnati (A), Louisville (A), Georgetown (A), Villanova (A)
16. Saint Louis Billikens (Previous ranking: 20)
Why Saint Louis can win: Saint Louis is an excellent defensive team that plays to a slower tempo and forces opponents to play its style. Dwayne Evans, Cody Ellis, Jordair Jett and Kwamain Mitchell form a nucleus of very good and experienced players that understand not only how to play, but how to play together.
Why Saint Louis can lose: The Billikens are very good, but a will focused and patient effort can beat them. This is an undervalued team, and one that can beat almost anyone.
Wins: New Mexico (H), Butler (H, A), VCU (H), La Salle (H)
Losses: Santa Clara (H), Kansas (N), Washington (A), Temple (A), Rhode Island (H)
17. Syracuse Orange (Previous ranking: 14)
Why Syracuse can win: The Orange can be very good on the defensive end, and get out and run off of turnovers, misses or made baskets. Syracuse is at its best in transition, and that means scoring off of its defense. Syracuse still has a top-10 defense, but has been trending down.
Why Syracuse can lose: In halfcourt situations, Syracuse is a poor shooting team that struggles to consistently make perimeter shots and score from the center position. With such pedestrian shooting from deep (31.2 percent, 282nd in Division I), the Orange have been unable to score with any consistency. With seven losses in 12 games to end the season, this is a fragile team.
Wins: San Diego State (N), Villanova (A), Pittsburgh (A), Louisville (A), Notre Dame (H)
Losses: Temple (N), Villanova (A), Pittsburgh (A), UConn (A), Georgetown (H, A), Marquette (A), Louisville (H)
18. Virginia Commonwealth Rams (Previous ranking: 16)
Why VCU can win: The Rams press and pressure and lead the nation in steals, steals percentage, turnovers forced and turnover percentage. VCU creates chaos and speeds the game up to get open 3-point opportunities, but also provides opportunities to its opponents. Some of VCU's best performances were close losses it had against quality competition, as VCU has only three wins against the BPI top 50.
Why VCU can lose: Teams that can control the ball and have multiple handlers used to playing at a slower tempo can withstand the pressure and starve VCU of its needed turnovers and opportunistic 3s. VCU is outstanding, but not unbeatable. VCU gives up some easy baskets, counteracted by turnovers, and gives up some easy second shots. When forced to play half-court basketball, the Rams are not as efficient.
Wins: Memphis (N), Belmont (H), Alabama (H), Butler (H)
Losses: Wichita State (H), Duke (N), Missouri (N), Richmond (A), La Salle (H), Saint Louis (A), Temple (A)
19. Creighton Bluejays (Previous ranking: 24)
Why Creighton can win: The Jays have Doug McDermott, as good of a scorer as there is in college basketball and one of the five most efficient players in the country -- and some very good and skilled players around him. Grant Gibbs can really pass, and Ethan Wragge is an outstanding shooter. Inside, Greg Echenique can defend in the post, set screens and rebound effectively against the big boys. This is a top-10 offense that shoots equally well inside and outside the arc.
Why Creighton can lose: The Jays are better defensively than they were last season, but not great. But Creighton has done a much better job of limiting opponents to one shot. That has been a significant improvement in its overall numbers, as second shots are usually high-percentage shots.
Wins: Wisconsin (N), Akron (H), California (A), Wichita State (H, N)
Losses: Boise State (H), Wichita State (A), Drake (A), Indiana State (A), Illinois State (H), Northern Iowa (A), Saint Mary's (A)
20. North Carolina State Wolfpack (Previous ranking: 21)
Why NC State can win: The Wolfpack are a talented group that can score from every spot on the floor. Transition is this team's strength, and it arguably has as talented a player at every position as there is in the ACC. NC State is rated among the 12 best offensive teams in the nation.
Why NC State can lose: This is an inconsistent defensive team that guards people essentially when the spirit moves them to do so. There is no reason why NC State can't go on a nice run in the NCAA tournament, but there is no indication that the Wolfpack won't go out early, either. NC State is rated as the 125th-best defensive team in the country. That does not match up to the talent level they have.
Wins: UConn (N), Stanford (H), Duke (H), North Carolina (H)
Losses: Oklahoma State (N), Michigan (A), Maryland (A), Wake Forest (A), Virginia (A), Miami (H), Duke (A), North Carolina (A), Florida State (A)
21. Pittsburgh Panthers (Previous ranking: 22)
Why Pittsburgh can win: Pittsburgh is a good passing team and has tremendous depth. The Panthers are rated in the top dozen teams in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and this is an outstanding offensive rebounding team.
Why Pittsburgh can lose: Pitt does not get to the foul line often and does not hit a high percentage when it does get there. Pitt has not controlled the glass in losses, and has not established its offense. Pittsburgh does not have any true stars, but has a ton of good players that all rotate through.
Wins: Georgetown (A), Villanova (H, A), UConn (H), Syracuse (H), Cincinnati (A)
Losses: Michigan (N), Cincinnati (H), Rutgers (A), Marquette (H, A), Louisville (A), Notre Dame (H)
22. UNLV Rebels (Previous ranking: 23)
Why UNLV can win: UNLV is very solid defensively and has some outstanding individual talent in Anthony Bennett, Mike Moser, Khem Birch, Bryce Dejean-Jones and Anthony Marshall. Bennett has been injured to end the season, and Moser has been in and out of the lineup all season. When Birch became eligible, the ability for this team to play instinctively together was affected. Still, there is a lot of talent here.
Why UNLV can lose: The Rebels are still fitting all of the pieces together, and have not had a full, healthy roster this season. Plus, UNLV still turns the ball over too much. The Rebels face Air Force in the Mountain West tournament, a team they lost to earlier in conference play.
Wins: California (A), San Diego State (H, A), New Mexico (H), Colorado State (H), Boise State (H)
Losses: Oregon (N), North Carolina (A), New Mexico (A), Colorado State (A), Boise State (A), Fresno State (H, A), Air Force (A)
23. Kansas State Wildcats (Previous ranking: 15)
Why Kansas State can win: The Wildcats have shown some toughness and togetherness this season to gain a tie with Kansas for the Big 12 regular-season title. This is a very good offensive rebounding team that can put points on the board. Rodney McGruder is an outstanding player who can score and defend, and he is the leader of this team.
Why Kansas State can lose: The Wildcats are not as strong defensively as they have been in seasons past, and they do not clean up their own defensive glass as they should. Plus, Kansas State does not get to the line often enough.
Wins: Florida (N), Oklahoma State (A), Oklahoma (H, A), Iowa State (H), Baylor (H, A)
Losses: Michigan (N), Gonzaga (N), Kansas (H, A), Iowa State (A), Oklahoma State (A)
24. Minnesota Golden Gophers (Previous ranking: 27)
Why Minnesota can win: The Gophers have size, athleticism and good guards. But what sets this team apart is the ability to crash the offensive glass and create extra possessions from second chances. Against Minnesota, the well-defended first shot is nowhere near the end of your defense. Minnesota is the best offensive rebounding team in the nation.
Why Minnesota can lose: The Gophers gain extra possessions on the glass, but lose them with turnovers and allowing second chances for opponents. Minnesota has a turnover percentage of 21.3 percent, which ranks 253rd in the nation. Minnesota is maddeningly inconsistent. The same team that beat Indiana and Michigan State lost to Northwestern and Nebraska, and didn't look good doing it. Minnesota has wild swings in performance, but the good Minnesota is really good. If the lesser version shows up in a tournament setting, it can be over quickly.
Wins: Memphis (N), Stanford (N), Michigan State (H), Illinois (A), Iowa (H), Wisconsin (H), Indiana (H)
Losses: Duke (N), Indiana (A), Michigan (H), Northwestern (A), Wisconsin (A), Michigan State (A), Illinois, Iowa (A), Ohio State (A), Nebraska (A), Purdue (A)
25. San Diego State Aztecs (Previous ranking: 26)
Why San Diego State can win: The Aztecs are very good defensively and on the glass, defending the paint and limiting second shots. While not proficient offensively, San Diego State's offense helps its defense by not turning it over much. In Jamaal Franklin, the Aztecs have a star who puts up consistent numbers and consistent effort.
Why San Diego State can lose: The Aztecs are inconsistent offensively, but are gamers. Still, relying upon shutouts limits the chances to get to a second weekend.
Wins: UCLA (N), Colorado State (H), New Mexico (H), Boise State (H)
Losses: Syracuse (N), Arizona (N), UNLV (H, A), Wyoming (A), Air Force (A), Colorado State (A), New Mexico (A), Boise State (A)
26. Wisconsin Badgers (Previous ranking: 17)
Why Wisconsin can win: The Badgers guard people and get the tempo to their liking. Bo Ryan's crew is fundamentally sound and establishes its rhythm while disrupting the rhythm of the opponent. Wisconsin is an outstanding defensive team that packs the lane and forces lower-percentage shots.
Why Wisconsin can lose: Wisconsin is not an efficient offensive team and struggles to score easily. The Badgers do not get to the foul line, but stay competitive with the best teams by taking care of the ball. Wisconsin gets a shot on seemingly every possession.
Wins: Arkansas (N), California (H), Illinois (H, A), Indiana (A), Minnesota (H), Iowa (H), Michigan (H), Ohio State (H)
Losses: Florida (A), Creighton (N), Virginia (H), Marquette (A), Iowa (A), Michigan State (H), Ohio State (A), Minnesota (A), Purdue (H), Michigan State (A)
27. UCLA Bruins (Previous ranking: 29)
Why UCLA can win: The Bruins have talent, but that talent is quite young. The best thing UCLA does is take care of the ball and consistently get a shot each possession. On the defensive end, UCLA guards the 3-point line effectively, and its first-shot defense is generally pretty good. Larry Drew II has done an outstanding job of running the team, and Shabazz Muhammad has become the leading scorer and best player. It speaks very well of UCLA that the Bruins were able to fight through and win the Pac-12 title.
Why UCLA can lose: The Bruins simply do not rebound on either end of the floor, which does not generate second shots -- and the Bruins also give up second opportunities.
Wins: Missouri (H), California (H), Stanford (H, A), Colorado (A), Arizona (H, A)
Losses: Cal Poly (H), San Diego State (N), Oregon (H), Arizona State (A), USC (H), California (A), Washington State (A)
28. Missouri Tigers (Previous ranking: 30)
Why Missouri can win: The Tigers have offensive talent, with one of the best passing point guards in the country and really big and athletic wings. Missouri has a top-10 offense and is an outstanding offensive rebounding team.
Why Missouri can lose: The Tigers are loose with the ball and turn it over too much. At the end of games, Missouri has made some questionable decisions and was unable to finish games, especially on the road. On the defensive end, Missouri is not instinctive together, largely because of so many new pieces. Missouri is getting better and has the capacity to win against almost anyone in the NCAA tournament.
Wins: Stanford (N), VCU (N), Illinois (N), Alabama (H), Ole Miss (H), Florida (H), Arkansas (H)
Losses: Louisville (N), UCLA (A), Mississippi (A), Florida (A), LSU (A), Texas A&M (A), Arkansas (A), Kentucky (A), Tennessee (A)
29. North Carolina Tar Heels (Previous ranking: 31)
Why North Carolina can win: The Heels have been very good with their new, four-guard lineup that has put more punch into its offense and defense. In fact, in the eight games of the new lineup, North Carolina has lost only to Duke -- twice. The Heels are a better shooting team with P.J. Hairston essentially playing the power forward spot, but North Carolina is no longer a team that plays inside-out. Reggie Bullock has been North Carolina's best and most consistent player, and an All-ACC performer.
Why North Carolina can lose: The Heels have difficulty rebounding, and are more of a perimeter shooting team. Against Duke, North Carolina didn't shoot the ball well, and found itself having difficulty scoring. North Carolina doesn't get to the free throw line often, something that has been a staple for the Heels over the years.
Wins: UNLV (H), Maryland (H, A), Virginia (H), NC State (H)
Losses: Butler (N), Indiana (A), Texas (A), Virginia (A), Miami (H, A), NC State (A), Duke (H, A)
30. Wichita State Shockers (Previous ranking: 36)
Why Wichita State can win: This team gets things done with hard work and togetherness on both ends of the floor, but especially the defensive end. The Shockers can really rebound, cleaning up defensive possessions by securing the ball, and getting second shots on offense. Carl Hall is outstanding, and the most efficient player on the roster. Cleanthony Early, Malcolm Armstead and Demetric Williams can all knock in a 3-point shot, and all make big plays. The numbers don't tell the story of how tough this team can be.
Why Wichita State can lose: The Shockers are not the most efficient offensive team, and can be limited when you can match their effort on the glass, and when you accept the physical challenge of playing them tough.
Wins: VCU (A), Iowa (N), Creighton (H), Illinois State (H, A, N)
Losses: Tennessee (A), Evansville (H, A), Indiana State (H), Northern Iowa (A), Southern Illinois (A), Creighton (A)
31. Memphis Tigers (Previous ranking: 32)
Why Memphis can win: The Tigers are among the most athletic teams in the nation, and can match up with anyone position-by-position. Memphis can really guard people, and block shots and get steals.
Why Memphis can lose: The Tigers turn the ball over and settle too often, not getting to the free throw line often enough. But even when it gets to the line, Memphis is not a good free throw shooting team.
Wins: Tennessee (A), Southern Miss (H, A)
Losses: VCU (N), Minnesota (N), Louisville (N), Xavier (A)
32. Virginia Cavaliers (Previous ranking: 28)
Why Virginia can win: The Cavaliers guard people and pack the paint with defenders, making opposing offenses work really hard for a shot they don't necessarily want. Virginia is rated among the top 25 defenses in the country, and force a pace that is among the slowest (on a per-possession basis) in the nation. The Cavaliers have a true star in Joe Harris, who had 36 points against Duke and is one of the best shooters and most efficient offensive players in the country.
Why Virginia can lose: With so few possessions, Virginia is in every game, but so are its opponents. The Cavs have won games against impressive opponents, but also have lost some head-scratchers to bottom-feeders. The good news is that Virginia will not play any such teams in the NCAA tournament.
Wins: Wisconsin (A), Tennessee (H), North Carolina (H), NC State (H), Maryland (H, A), Duke (H)
Losses: George Mason (A), Delaware (H), Old Dominion (N), Wake Forest (A), Clemson (A), Georgia Tech (A), North Carolina (A), Miami (A), Boston College (A), Florida State (A)
33. Iowa State Cyclones (Previous ranking: 37)
Why Iowa State can win: The Cyclones play with a spread floor and take advantage of ball screens and 3-point shots. Iowa State can really score, and is difficult to guard because of its face-up big men and good guards. Former Michigan State guard Korie Lucious runs the point, Chris Babb is one of the best defenders in the Big 12 and Tyrus McGee is an outstanding shooter. Will Clyburn is the best and most versatile player. Iowa State scores almost 40 percent of its points from the 3-point line, and less than 20 percent of its points from the free throw line.
Why Iowa State can lose: On the defensive end, Iowa State simply allows too many easy scores, as the Cyclones do not guard as well as one might expect.
Wins: Kansas State (H), Baylor (H, A), Oklahoma (H), Oklahoma State (H)
Losses: Iowa (A), Kansas (H, A), Texas Tech (A), Oklahoma State (A), Kansas State (A), Texas (A), Oklahoma (A)
34. Colorado State Rams (Previous ranking: 33)
Why Colorado State can win: The Rams are a typical Larry Eustachy team that will rebound and take care of the ball and not beat itself. Colorado State is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. Between getting second possessions and not turning it over on the first one, Colorado State can overcome its shooting issues.
Why Colorado State can lose: The Rams are limited defensively, but do a great job of limiting second shots by grabbing defensive rebounds. Every Colorado State player goes to the defensive glass.
Wins: UNLV (H), Boise State (H), San Diego State (H)
Losses: Colorado (A), Illinois-Chicago (A), San Diego State (A), New Mexico (A), UNLV (A), New Mexico (H, A), Boise State (A)
35. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Previous ranking: 35)
Why Notre Dame can win: The Irish are very good on the offensive end, take good shots and pass the ball very well. Notre Dame is not as good as when it had Scott Martin healthy, when the floor was spread and the Irish could play drive-and-kick. In its reinvention without Martin, Notre Dame went bigger, and became more defensively oriented. Eric Atkins is one of the best and most poised guards in the country, and Jerian Grant has a knack for scoring and can go on a tear. Jack Cooley remains one of the hardest working and most productive big men in the college game.
Why Notre Dame can lose: Notre Dame doesn't get to the foul line much, and plays at one of the slowest paces in the nation. This is a team that plays containment defense, and whose defense is not as proficient as its offense.
Wins: Kentucky (H), Cincinnati (H, A), Villanova (H), Louisville (H), Pittsburgh (A)
Losses: Saint Joseph's (H), UConn (H), St. John's (H), Georgetown (H), Syracuse (A), Providence (A), Marquette (A), Louisville (A)
36. Oregon Ducks (Previous ranking: 25)
Why Oregon can win: Oregon is solid on the defensive end, and plays at a much faster pace than people may think. The Ducks have size and play hard on defense.
Why Oregon can lose: This is not a proficient offensive team that struggles to score at times. The Ducks are turnover prone and are not a good perimeter shooting team. Plus, the freshmen guards are banged up, with Dominic Artis just back from injury.
Wins: Arizona (H), UCLA (A), Washington (H), Stanford (H)
Losses: Cincinnati (N), UTEP (A), Stanford (A), California (H, A), Colorado (H, A), Utah (A)
37. Cincinnati Bearcats (Previous ranking: 34)
Why Cincinnati can win: The Bearcats have good guards and big men who are shot-blockers and rebounders, but not offensive players. Cashmere Wright has been injured and has not shot the ball well, leaving Sean Kilpatrick and JaQuon Parker as the primary scoring threats. Cincinnati can rebound and defend, but cannot shoot well, which puts great pressure on its defense.
Why Cincinnati can lose: The Bearcats have one of the lowest effective field goal percentages in the country, ranked 271st, and are also ranked 269th in 3-point percentage, 257th in 2-point field goals, and 303rd in free throw shooting.
Wins: Pittsburgh (A), Marquette (H), Villanova (H), UConn (H)
Losses: New Mexico, Notre Dame (H, A), Syracuse (A), Providence (A), Pittsburgh (H), Georgetown (H), UConn (A), Louisville (A)
38. Colorado Buffaloes (Previous ranking: 41)
Why Colorado can win: The Buffs are solid defensively, rebound the ball well to end possessions, and defend without fouling.
Why Colorado can lose: Offensively, Colorado has been inconsistent, and this is not a great shooting team.
Wins: Baylor (N), Colorado State (H), Stanford (H, A), California (H), Oregon (H, A), Arizona (H)
Losses: Wyoming (A), Kansas (A), Arizona (A), Arizona State (H, A), UCLA (H), Washington (A), Utah (A), California (A), Oregon State (H)
39. Saint Mary's Gaels (Previous ranking: 38)
Why Saint Mary's can win: The Gaels run a very good offense, and Matthew Dellavedova is about as good as any guard running ball-screen action. This is a good shooting team that is also good on the backboards.
Why Saint Mary's can lose: The Gaels do not defend the 3-point shot well, and do not force turnovers.
Wins: BYU (H, A), Creighton (H)
Losses: Pacific (N), Georgia Tech (N), Northern Iowa (A), Gonzaga (H, A)
40. Illinois Fighting Illini (Previous ranking: 39)
Why Illinois can win: The Illini have a very effective perimeter attack, and have three guards who can score with anyone. Illinois can stretch the floor and has driving lanes for Tracy Abrams, with Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson as the top 3-point threats and Tyler Griffey as a face-up 4. Both Richardson and Paul shoot more 3s than 2s.
Why Illinois can lose: Illinois shoots a lot of 3s, but does not shoot a great percentage. Combine that with a low number of free throw attempts and a lack of defensive rebounding, and Illinois has an over-reliance on hitting double-digit 3s to win big games.
Wins: Butler (N), Gonzaga (A), Ohio State (H), Indiana (H), Minnesota (A)
Losses: Missouri (N), Purdue (A), Minnesota (A), Wisconsin (H, A), Northwestern (H), Michigan (A), Michigan State (A), Iowa (A), Ohio State (A)
41. Kentucky Wildcats (Previous ranking: 40)
Why Kentucky can win: The Wildcats have talent across the board, but it is young talent. Kentucky is good, and shows flashes, but sustaining things has been an issue. When attacking the basket, the Wildcats can hang with anyone. When they settle, anyone can hang with them.
Why Kentucky can lose: Kentucky is not a great free throw shooting team, nor a great rebounding team.
Wins: Maryland (N), Tennessee (H), Missouri (H), Florida (H)
Losses: Notre Dame (A), Baylor (H), Louisville (A), Texas A&M (H), Alabama (A), Florida (A), Tennessee (A), Arkansas (A), Georgia (A)
42. Oklahoma Sooners (Previous ranking: 43)
Why Oklahoma can win: A solid offensive team that takes care of the ball well and hits free throws, the Sooners have Romero Osby, who has been a consistent scorer and tough matchup.
Why Oklahoma can lose: The Sooners are not an elite defensive team and do not get enough stops, even though they have improved in that area.
Wins: Ohio (H), Oklahoma State (H), Baylor (H, A), Kansas (H), Iowa State (H)
Losses: Arkansas (A), Stephen F. Austin (H), Kansas State (H, A), Kansas (A), Iowa State (A), Oklahoma State (A), Texas (A), TCU (A)
43. Butler Bulldogs (Previous ranking: 45)
Why Butler can win: The Bulldogs have gamers who play beyond what you think their level should be. Butler is good, but turns it over more than expected and does not shoot free throws well at certain positions. Still, Butler plays well in bigger games.
Why Butler can lose: This is not an elite shooting team, but Rotnei Clarke and Kellen Dunham can both shoot it. When Butler makes shots, this team looks tough.
Wins: Marquette (N), North Carolina (N), Indiana (N), Gonzaga (H), Temple (H)
Losses: Illinois (N), La Salle (A), Saint Louis (H, A), Charlotte (H), VCU (A)
44. Baylor Bears (Previous ranking: 51)
Why Baylor can win: Baylor has size, talent, good guards and offensive ability.
Why Baylor can lose: The Bears are erratic on the defensive end, and they do not get to the foul line or hit the defensive boards. They have needed to do the tougher things to win. When they do, this is a good team.
Wins: Kentucky (A), Oklahoma State (H), Kansas (H)
Losses: Colorado (N), College of Charleston (H), Northwestern (H), Gonzaga (A), Kansas (A), Oklahoma (H, A), Iowa State (H, A), Oklahoma State (A), Kansas State (H/A), Texas (A)
45. Iowa Hawkeyes (Previous ranking: 52)
Why Iowa can win: This is a solid defensive team that fights you and can get to the foul line.
Why Iowa can lose: This is an inconsistent shooting team that has not won on the road.
Wins: Iowa State (H), Wisconsin (H), Minnesota (H), Illinois (H)
Losses: Wichita State (N), Virginia Tech (A), Indiana (H, A), Michigan (A)
46. Belmont Bruins (Previous ranking: 46)
Why Belmont can win: The Bruins can shoot it, with Kerron Johnson penetrating and Ian Clark and J.J. Mann knocking in perimeter shots. Belmont leads the nation in field goal percentage inside the arc.
Why Belmont can lose: The Bruins lack size, and can be hurt on the glass.
Wins: Stanford (A), Middle Tennessee (H), Ohio (H)
Losses: Northeastern (N), VCU (A), Kansas (A), Central Florida (A), Murray State (A), Tennessee State (A)
47. California Golden Bears (Previous ranking: 44)
Why California can win: The Bears are solid defensively, protecting the lane and solid on the defensive glass without allowing too many second shot opportunities, although that has been an issue in some losses. Allen Crabbe and Justin Cobbs form an excellent backcourt, and Crabbe is capable of big scoring games. Despite a loss to Stanford, Cal has played well down the stretch.
Why California can lose: Cal is not a great shooting team, and does not get to the foul line regularly. Interior play has been inconsistent.
Wins: Oregon (H, A), Arizona (A), UCLA (H), Colorado (H)
Losses: Wisconsin (A), UNLV (H), Creighton (H), Harvard (H), UCLA (A), Washington (H), Stanford (H, A), Colorado (A), Arizona State (A)
48. Temple Owls (Previous ranking: 53)
Why Temple can win: Temple is a solid, veteran, tempo-control team that has three guys who can shoot it well. Khalif Wyatt is a special player who can take over a game.
Why Temple can lose: Temple's defense is decent, but not a calling card. The Owls do not guard the 3-point line effectively and you can drive close-outs against them.
Wins: Villanova (A), Syracuse (N), Saint Louis (H), La Salle (H), VCU (H)
Losses: Duke (N), Canisius (H), Kansas (A), Xavier (A), St. Bonaventure (H), Saint Joseph's (A), Duquesne (H)
49. Stanford Cardinal (Previous ranking: 57)
Why Stanford can win: The Cardinal run good offense and play hard. Dwight Powell is a talented player up front, Josh Huestis is a tough defender and rebounder, and Chasson Randle is a good perimeter scorer.
Why Stanford can lose: Although a low turnover team, Stanford has not shot the ball well, including open shots inside the arc. Finishing plays has been a culprit in losing so many close games. Stanford is better than its record suggests.
Wins: California (H, A), Oregon (H)
Losses: Belmont (H), Missouri (N), Minnesota (N), NC State (A), USC (H, A), UCLA (H, A), Washington (H), Colorado (H, A), Arizona (A), Oregon (A)
50. La Salle Explorers (Previous ranking: 48)
Why La Salle can win: The Explorers have good guards in Tyreek Duren and Ramon Galloway. A good shooting team with a low error rate, La Salle does not get second shots, but is efficient with the first one.
Why La Salle can lose: La Salle is just average on the defensive end and does not protect the lane as well as it guards on the perimeter. Too many second chances are given up on the defensive glass.
Wins: Villanova (H), Butler (H), VCU (A)
Losses: Bucknell (A), Miami (A), Charlotte (A), Xavier (A), UMass (H), Temple (A), Saint Louis (A)
51. Tennessee Volunteers (Previous ranking: 47)
Why Tennessee can win: The Vols can get to the rim, and do a good job on the glass and getting to the free throw line. Jordan McRae can go for 30 in any given game.
Why Tennessee can lose: Tennessee plays hard, but does not shoot the ball well from the perimeter and is inconsistent on the defensive end.
Wins: Alabama (H), Kentucky (H), Florida (H), Missouri (H)
Losses: Oklahoma State (N), Georgetown (A), Virginia (A), Memphis (H), Mississippi (H, A), Alabama (A), Kentucky (A), Arkansas (A), Georgia (H, A)
52. Ole Miss Rebels (Previous ranking: 58)
Why Ole Miss can win: Ole Miss is a low turnover team that has scoring inside with Murphy Holloway and outside with Marshall Henderson.
Why Ole Miss can lose: This team is inconsistent on the defensive end and would rather outscore you than stop you.
Wins: Tennessee (H, A), Missouri (H), Arkansas (H), Alabama (H)
Losses: Middle Tennessee (A), Indiana State (N), Kentucky (H), Florida (A), Missouri (A), Texas A&M (A), South Carolina (A), Mississippi State (A)
53. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Previous ranking: 49)
Why Southern Miss can win: This team forces turnovers and generates offense off of its defense. Dwayne Davis is an outstanding player who can shoot it, and three different Southern Miss players have made 50 or more 3-point field goals.
Why Southern Miss can lose: This team is loose with the ball, turning it over at a high rate.
Wins: Georgia
Losses: New Mexico State (A), Arizona (A), Louisiana Tech (A), Wichita State (A), Central Florida (A), Memphis (H, A), Marshall (A)
54. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (Previous ranking: 54)
Why Middle Tennessee can win: This is a pace-controlling team with excellent half-court defense and good shooting.
Why Middle Tennessee can lose: This team has not been tested against a great schedule, yet is still inefficient with the ball and has a high turnover rate.
Wins: Ole Miss (H)
Losses: Florida (A), Akron (A), Belmont (A), Arkansas State (A)
55. Villanova Wildcats (Previous ranking: 56)
Why Villanova can win: The Wildcats are good defensively and limit open shots inside the arc.
Why Villanova can lose: Villanova does not score efficiently, shoots a low percentage from the field, and turns the ball over too much.
Wins: Louisville (H), Syracuse (H), UConn (A), Marquette (H), Georgetown (H)
Losses: Alabama (N), Columbia (H), La Salle (A), Temple (H), Syracuse (A), Pittsburgh (H, A), Providence (H, A), Notre Dame (A), Cincinnati (A), Seton Hall (A)
56. Boise State Broncos (Previous ranking: 60)
Why Boise State can win: Boise is a good offensive team with a scoring machine in sophomore guard Derrick Marks, who can get to the rim and to the free throw line.
Why Boise State can lose: The Broncos have improved defensively, but are still not a great defensive team. They do, however, compete on the glass.
Wins: Creighton (H), UNLV (H), Colorado State (H), San Diego State (H)
Losses: Michigan State (A), Utah (A), New Mexico (H), Air Force (A), Nevada (A), Colorado State (A), San Diego State (A), UNLV (A)
57. Maryland Terrapins (Previous ranking: 50)
Why Maryland can win: The Terps have size, defend well and can rebound.
Why Maryland can lose: Maryland is young, does not shoot the ball consistently, and turns it over too much. This is an inconsistent team offensively.
Wins: NC State (H), Duke (H)
Losses: Kentucky (N), Florida State, (H, A) Miami (A), North Carolina (H, A), Duke (A), Virginia (H, A), Boston College (A), Georgia Tech (A)
58. Alabama Crimson Tide (Previous ranking: 59)
Why Alabama can win: Alabama is athletic and solid on the defensive end with a leader in Trevor Releford.
Why Alabama can lose: This is a poor offensive team that struggles to score and gives up too many extra possessions on the glass.
Wins: Villanova (N), Tennessee (H), Kentucky (H), Arkansas (H)
Losses: Cincinnati (A), Dayton (H), VCU (A), Mercer (H), Tulane (H), Missouri (A), Tennessee (A), Auburn (A), LSU (A), Florida (A), Ole Miss (A)
59. Bucknell Bison (Previous ranking: 65)
Why Bucknell can win: Bucknell can shoot it, with Bryson Johnson and Cameron Ayers hitting more than 50 3s each, and can score in the post with an elite big man in Mike Muscala. This is a very stingy defensive team that can make you prove it over the top, and they don't turn it over. The Bison's offense really helps their defense.
Why Bucknell can lose: Athletic teams can give Bucknell a problem, but this team will not be blown out.
Wins: La Salle (H)
Losses: Missouri (A)
60. Arkansas Razorbacks (Previous ranking: 61)
Why Arkansas can win: The Hogs have talented wings in B.J. Young and Marshawn Powell. Arkansas does not turn it over and also forces turnovers to gain a possession advantage.
Why Arkansas can lose: The Hogs are not a great shooting team, and they force too many shots. They do not get to the free throw line, yet foul too much and lose the free throw battle as a result.
Wins: Oklahoma (H), Tennessee (H), Florida (H), Missouri (H), Kentucky (H)
Losses: Wisconsin (N), Syracuse (H), Michigan (A), Ole Miss (A), Alabama (A), Florida (A), Missouri (A)
61. Ohio Bobcats (Previous ranking: 62)
Why Ohio can win: The Bobcats have D.J. Cooper, the best passing point guard in the country, and solid guards around him.
Why Ohio can lose: This is not a great rebounding team, and it can be hurt on the backboards.
Wins: N/A
Losses: Memphis (A), Oklahoma (A), Akron (H, A), Belmont (A)
62. Davidson Wildcats (Previous ranking: 63)
Why Davidson can win: A senior-laden team that is experienced in winning, Davidson can score inside and out and can pass and shoot from every spot on the floor.
Why Davidson can lose: Super-athletic teams can give Davidson's guards problems, and this is a solid defensive team, but not elite.
Wins: N/A
Losses: New Mexico (A), Gonzaga (N), Duke (N)
63. Arizona State Sun Devils (Previous ranking: 55)
Why Arizona State can win: The Sun Devils have an excellent backcourt in Jahii Carson and Carrick Felix.
Why Arizona State can lose: This is an average rebounding team that does not generate extra possessions, and a poor free throw shooting team.
Wins: UCLA (H), Colorado (H, A), California (H)
Losses: Creighton (N), DePaul (H), Oregon (A), Arizona (H), Washington (H, A), Stanford (H), Utah (A), UCLA (A), USC (A), Arizona (A)
64. Providence Friars (Previous ranking: 64)
Why Providence can win: The Friars have a very good guard in Bryce Cotton and an improved big man in Kadeem Batts. Providence has scoring potential in any given game, but does not have consistency on offense. This team is vastly improved on the defensive end.
Why Providence can lose: Like most teams around the bubble, the Friars are inconsistent. This is not a consistent shooting team, both in selection and completion.
Wins: Villanova (H, A), Cincinnati (H), Notre Dame (H)
Losses: Louisville (A), Syracuse (H, A), Georgetown (A), Pittsburgh (H), Marquette (A)
65. Valparaiso Crusaders (Previous ranking: NR)
Why Valparaiso can win: The Crusaders have made an appearance before in The Bilas Index, and they have Ryan Broekhoff, a versatile player who can really knock down shots.
Why Valparaiso can lose: Valpo puts its opponents on the free throw line too much and turns the ball over at a high rate.
Wins: N/A
Losses: Saint Louis (A), New Mexico (A)
66. Akron Zips (Previous ranking: 42)
Why Akron can win: The Zips have talent at almost every position and a big man in Zeke Marshall who allows them to score and guard in the post. This is a good offensive rebounding team. Akron was a real threat with a complete team.
Why Akron can lose: The Zips lost point guard Alex Abreu to an arrest, and without him, The Bilastrator doubts Akron can win in the postseason.
Wins: Middle Tennessee (H), Ohio (H, A)
Losses: Oklahoma State (N), Creighton (A), Detroit (A), Buffalo (A), Kent State (H)
67. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (Previous ranking: 66)
Why Louisiana Tech can win: The Bulldogs guard people and make it tough to run offense.
Why Louisiana Tech can lose: This is a poor perimeter shooting team that has lost two in a row heading into the postseason.
Wins: Southern Miss (H)
Losses: Texas A&M (A), Denver (A)
68. Harvard Crimson (Previous ranking: NR)
Why Harvard can win: Harvard is tough-minded and has a winning mentality. The guard play is solid.
Why Harvard can lose: The Crimson turn it over too much but are otherwise good offensively.
Wins: Cal (A)
Losses: UConn (A), Saint Mary's (A), Memphis (A)
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Jay Bilas
College Basketball analyst
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College basketball analyst for ESPN and ESPN Insider
Played and coached at Duke
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