- Indiana
- Gonzaga
- Duke
- either Miami or Georgetown, depending how both teams do in conference tourneys.

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Zags and Hoosiers are the only ones that are locks IMO. Duke, Georgetown, Kansas, Florida, DA YOO, maybe another Big Ten team could all claim a #1 depending on how the conference tourneys shake out.

I'll say Gonzaga, IU, Georgetown, Dem Canes.

But that will probably change by Wednesday.

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Call me slow, or uninformed, but I always figured your top 4 teams would be your top seeds. Hearing G'Town as a projected 1 didn't make sense as they are ranked, what, 7th? Not that I mind at all, as hopefully they get past the 2nd round this year, but that's another story...

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the rankings matter but they don't really matter.
it's more of a "who do you think the 4 best teams are?"

<--- Big Baller World Order

Every win and loss and the strength of schedule are weighed very heavily. Perception plays a part if we're talking about hotter teams getting higher seeds and cold or injured teams getting lower seeds... but again, if they're hot or cold, the concrete win-loss evidence is the major factor.

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Aren't involved in making the AP rankings.

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People are projecting where Georgetown will be based on how they're playing and their remaining schedule, not where they currently are.

But I expect the Hoyas to be Top 5 in this new poll so it doesn't really matter.

The selection committee weighs primarily:
1. Good wins-- wins against Top 50 or Top 25 teams. What's your record against them?
2. Your "worst losses." How many non-tournament teams did you lose to? How bad is your worst loss?
3. Strength of schedule. How tough did you have to play night in and night out? Did you challenge yourself?
4. Current level of play. Are you on a win streak or a losing streak? Bubble teams on a win streak are more likely to get in, a hot elite team is more likely to get a 1 seed than an elite team that lost a couple near season's end.
5. Health. Does your team have all its players? Did you have to play without anyone for a stretch? Are they back? Are you still crippled?

Take Duke. 8-3 against the Top 50 in BPI, 13-4 against Top 100. Worst loss is on the road against Maryland, who was on the bubble until their most recent loss (though the blowout Miami gave us is a smudge admittedly). Strength of schedule 23rd in the nation, highest among the BPI's Top 10. Current level of play is kind of iffy, BUT Ryan Kelly's health will be given heavy consideration. We're 15-0 with him, with wins against Louisville, Ohio State, Minnesota, VCU, and now Miami. With him back, if we end the regular season strong and make the ACC Tourney finals, we should be 1 in the East.

That's obviously not a perfect system, and they admittedly weigh some teams in a weird fashion (one wonders how the strong mid-major conferences will be weighed compared to the weaker big conferences in terms of strength of schedule consideration). But that's a good eyeball test for where teams will end up.

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Plus, I don't see how the ACC would get two 1 seeds when that conference is down as a whole this year.
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Stronger strength of schedule than Miami (or any other team competing for a 1 seed), plus they're finally healthy-- the committee loves weighing a player's absence heavily. And Duke is undefeated with Ryan Kelly at the moment.

I doubt the ACC gets two top seeds also... but they're two of the best, most experienced teams in the nation.

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I don't know. It's going to be hard to see them not get a #1 seed, while Duke does get one, if that happens.

Although the way this season has gone, they could both lose their first game and we'll see Clemson or someone win in Greensboro.

I definitely do not envy the selection committee. This might be the toughest year to seed since 06. No matter what happens, there's going to be teams with a legit case to be a #1 over at least one of the teams who gets one.

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That will give them the marquee road victory with Ryan Kelly that the committee is looking for. With that and the strength of schedule, it'd be real god damn hard to turn them away.

If Miami beats Duke in a closely contested ACC finals, I can absolutely envision both getting a 1 seed. Especially if Georgetown and Louisville both fail to win the Big East Tourney. I think Kansas killed themselves with the TCU loss, though winning the Big 12 Tourney in dominant fashion could make it happen. Florida's a 2, Michigan possibly a 2.

Your top eight right now are Indiana, Gonzaga, Duke, Louisville, Miami, Georgetown, Kansas, Florida, probably in that order.

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if UF is a 2 seed today over Michigan thats ridiculous

Beat Mid Tennessee. Only non-conference losses were very close battles against Kansas State and Arizona. Only losses in conference were three close road losses against either tourney or bubble teams (although admittedly Arkansas and Tennessee likely fell off the bubble recently).

I would agree that Michigan should be a 2 over Florida. You beat both Kansas State and Arkansas, both of whom beat Florida... but don't be surprised if that recent Penn State loss scares the shit out of the committee. That's essentially a 16 seed beating a 1 seed, and the committee rarely is keen on putting a team with a loss that bad in a top 2 seed if other teams without losses that bad are in contention.

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how do you justify Miami getting a one seed after dropping to Wake?

1. Simply put, Wake is much better than PSU. Wake beat Miami, beat State, beat Virginia. Almost beat Duke, almost beat UConn. Penn State's second best win after Michigan is Bucknell. Their only decent near-win was against Iowa at home.

2. Miami has a tougher RPI strength of schedule than Michigan. On paper, this makes little sense, because the Big 10 has more great teams than the ACC... but it has to do with the toughness of Michigan's non-conference schedule. They do have big games, but they also have some serious cupcakes. Miami's played 16 top 100 teams, whereas Michigan has only played 14, and Miami is 13-3 to Michigan's 10-4.

3. The committee considers how one closes the year, and currently, Miami is 10-2 in their last twelve, whereas Michigan is 8-4.

4. Miami's worst loss, against Florida Gulf Coast, came without Durand Scott, their senior leader, which the committee will consider. Not to mention, if FGCU makes the tourney by winning the Sun Belt Tournament (quite likely-- they're second in the conference), that makes Miami look even better.

5. Even if you only consider Top 25 games and not the rest, Miami is 5-2 against the Top 25, and Michigan is 5-3. At worst, they're fairly equivalent if you only want to consider that.

I'm not saying Miami SHOULD be above Michigan, even though I think Miami is a better team. Obviously the final couple of games and the conference tourneys will play big parts in this determination. But the reasons for Miami's placement on the 1 line RIGHT TODAY above Michigan are relatively easy to find.

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>1. Simply put, Wake is much better than PSU. Wake beat Miami,
>beat State, beat Virginia. Almost beat Duke, almost beat
>UConn. Penn State's second best win after Michigan is
>Bucknell. Their only decent near-win was against Iowa at home.

Miami has also dropped to FGCU and indiana state. Say what you want, but PSU is a power conference school.

>2. Miami has a tougher RPI strength of schedule than Michigan.
>On paper, this makes little sense, because the Big 10 has more
>great teams than the ACC... but it has to do with the
>toughness of Michigan's non-conference schedule. They do have
>big games, but they also have some serious cupcakes. Miami's
>played 16 top 100 teams, whereas Michigan has only played 14,
>and Miami is 13-3 to Michigan's 10-4.

after Duke, Miami's next best wins are NC state and michigan state, and after that there is nothing. Michigan also beat those teams, beat Minnesota and Illinois on the road, K-State and Pittsburgh at neutral site, and Ohio State.

>3. The committee considers how one closes the year, and
>currently, Miami is 10-2 in their last twelve, whereas
>Michigan is 8-4.



>4. Miami's worst loss, against Florida Gulf Coast, came
>without Durand Scott, their senior leader, which the committee
>will consider. Not to mention, if FGCU makes the tourney by
>winning the Sun Belt Tournament (quite likely-- they're second
>in the conference), that makes Miami look even better.

quite likely? or quite possible? they have lossES to teams in the bottom half of the league, not just one aberrant loss like M's PSU loss.

>5. Even if you only consider Top 25 games and not the rest,
>Miami is 5-2 against the Top 25, and Michigan is 5-3. At
>worst, they're fairly equivalent if you only want to consider
>that.

5-2? who are those 7 ranked teams? ranked now, or at the time of the game? because michigan has 3 wins over teams that were top 10 at the time, and the K-State and Pittsburgh neutral court wins cannot be ignored, as those teams have turned out to be legit sweet 16 contenders. Miami's neutral court tournament came with losses to ISU and an Arizona team that has hit a wall.

>I'm not saying Miami SHOULD be above Michigan, even though I
>think Miami is a better team.

do you really, or is that because they beat Duke? because their resume doesnt stack up.

They beat Duke without Ryan Kelly, so I could argue that win, decisive as it was, is overblown in the public eye.

>>1. Simply put, Wake is much better than PSU. Wake beat
>Miami,
>>beat State, beat Virginia. Almost beat Duke, almost beat
>>UConn. Penn State's second best win after Michigan is
>>Bucknell. Their only decent near-win was against Iowa at
>home.
>
>Miami has also dropped to FGCU and indiana state. Say what
>you want, but PSU is a power conference school.

Addressed later. And no, both FGCU and Indiana State have a much higher BPI than Penn State. Penn State is barely Top 200.

>>2. Miami has a tougher RPI strength of schedule than
>Michigan.
>>On paper, this makes little sense, because the Big 10 has
>more
>>great teams than the ACC... but it has to do with the
>>toughness of Michigan's non-conference schedule. They do
>have
>>big games, but they also have some serious cupcakes. Miami's
>>played 16 top 100 teams, whereas Michigan has only played
>14,
>>and Miami is 13-3 to Michigan's 10-4.
>
>after Duke, Miami's next best wins are NC state and michigan
>state, and after that there is nothing. Michigan also beat
>those teams, beat Minnesota and Illinois on the road, K-State
>and Pittsburgh at neutral site, and Ohio State.

I didn't make the strength of schedule, dude, lol. The committee will look at that number. It's black and white.

>>3. The committee considers how one closes the year, and
>>currently, Miami is 10-2 in their last twelve, whereas
>>Michigan is 8-4.

^^^ this shouldn't be overlooked. Whether it's fair or not, they do it.

>>4. Miami's worst loss, against Florida Gulf Coast, came
>>without Durand Scott, their senior leader, which the
>committee
>>will consider. Not to mention, if FGCU makes the tourney by
>>winning the Sun Belt Tournament (quite likely-- they're
>second
>>in the conference), that makes Miami look even better.
>
>quite likely? or quite possible? they have lossES to teams
>in the bottom half of the league, not just one aberrant loss
>like M's PSU loss.

I'm just saying, as a casual follower of the Atlantic Sun (Jacksonville and UNF both in my hometown), FGCU is considered one of two teams likely to make it. They played Miami, Duke, VCU, and even gave Iowa State a tough game on the road. They're more battle tested than Mercer, and I like their odds.

>>5. Even if you only consider Top 25 games and not the rest,
>>Miami is 5-2 against the Top 25, and Michigan is 5-3. At
>>worst, they're fairly equivalent if you only want to
>consider
>>that.
>
>5-2? who are those 7 ranked teams? ranked now, or at the
>time of the game? because michigan has 3 wins over teams that
>were top 10 at the time, and the K-State and Pittsburgh
>neutral court wins cannot be ignored, as those teams have
>turned out to be legit sweet 16 contenders. Miami's neutral
>court tournament came with losses to ISU and an Arizona team
>that has hit a wall.

Those losses were early in the year for the U. If I recall, it's wins against RPI Top 25, not ranked teams. They care about their system, not rankings as much.

>>I'm not saying Miami SHOULD be above Michigan, even though I
>>think Miami is a better team.
>
>do you really, or is that because they beat Duke? because
>their resume doesnt stack up.

I do, yes. Right now, I believe they are playing better. I like their experience going into the tournament, they have a backcourt that will be very hard for even the elite teams to stop, and they have a terrific coach. They share the ball well, they are pesky on D, and Kadji is a 6'10 big who can shoot the 3 and spread defenses in a ridiculous manner. I think Michigan has a higher potential, but I'm sure you'll agree that consistency has been an issue at times.

And whether you agree or I agree on "who is better," the RPI is what the committee looks at. Better strength of schedule, better non-conference strength of schedule, more games and wins against the RPI Top 100, better record in the last 12 games, and their worst loss was without their senior leader. Michigan has more NBA talent and a larger number of sexy marquee wins, but the committee would side with Miami over Michigan, due to the stats.

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>They beat Duke without Ryan Kelly, so I could argue that win,
>decisive as it was, is overblown in the public eye.
>
>>>1. Simply put, Wake is much better than PSU. Wake beat
>>Miami,
>>>beat State, beat Virginia. Almost beat Duke, almost beat
>>>UConn. Penn State's second best win after Michigan is
>>>Bucknell. Their only decent near-win was against Iowa at
>>home.
>>
>>Miami has also dropped to FGCU and indiana state. Say what
>>you want, but PSU is a power conference school.
>
>Addressed later. And no, both FGCU and Indiana State have a
>much higher BPI than Penn State. Penn State is barely Top
>200.


>>>4. Miami's worst loss, against Florida Gulf Coast, came
>>>without Durand Scott, their senior leader, which the
>>committee
>>>will consider. Not to mention, if FGCU makes the tourney by
>>>winning the Sun Belt Tournament (quite likely-- they're
>>second
>>>in the conference), that makes Miami look even better.
>>
>>quite likely? or quite possible? they have lossES to teams
>>in the bottom half of the league, not just one aberrant loss
>>like M's PSU loss.
>
>I'm just saying, as a casual follower of the Atlantic Sun
>(Jacksonville and UNF both in my hometown), FGCU is considered
>one of two teams likely to make it. They played Miami, Duke,
>VCU, and even gave Iowa State a tough game on the road.
>They're more battle tested than Mercer, and I like their
>odds.
>

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That conference just isnt very good this year. I'd guess Indiana, Duke, Gonzaga and Georgetown/Louisville.

---------------------------------------------------------

1. Indiana
2. Duke
3. Gonzaga
4. Georgetown

then what?

seriously...I'm curious.

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... when the matchup problems in Coral Gables without Ryan Kelly are as evident as can be, and with Ryan Kelly, we won the game. Still struggled in the first half, but in the second half that high screen roll was far less effective, K adjusted (as he does), and we won the way we've beaten four other Top 25 teams this year with the Kraken.

People think Kraken's showing was a fluke, but he presents a TERRIBLE matchup problem for Miami. With Kells on the court, Kadji is less effective on offense and a non-entity on defense. Kells is our best big man defender against the high screen AND the pick and roll. His beast mode performance was *only* shocking to me because he came back from injury. If he'd been healthy, a big Kraken performance would've been a big shoulder shrug. Just looking at matchups.

People also like to cyse Reggie Johnson's foul trouble as a problem that would be remedied in future outings (Gottlieb screamed about this the whole weekend)... but Johnson played like 10 minutes against us the first time. He's a fucking foul machine. It's what he does.

Miami blowing out Duke without Ryan Kelly should be like a full Duke blowing out Miami without Kenny Kadji. Everyone should just say, "Oh, well obviously. Miami doesn't have the size without him and can't spread the offense OR defense the way they can with him." It's clear as day that they're two totally different teams.

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Which is to say, still decidedly unlikely.

But a 5-10% chance is a lot higher than the 1% or lower chances we've seen recently.

i still blame hip-hop.

Miami is now out, even with an ACC Tourney victory.

Georgetown is a stretch without a Big East Tourney victory.

A win this weekend would definitely make Kansas' case stronger.

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http://i.imgur.com/vPqCzVU.jpg

>Miami is now out, even with an ACC Tourney victory.

Still?

If Maryland beats the Tar Heels and makes the Big Dance, then the loss doesn't look nearly as bad for us. Our RPI, BPI, and SOS are all still better.

But yeah, there's an eye test that some committee members may not be able to get past now.

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>If Maryland beats the Tar Heels and makes the Big Dance, then
>the loss doesn't look nearly as bad for us. Our RPI, BPI, and
>SOS are all still better.
>
>But yeah, there's an eye test that some committee members may
>not be able to get past now.

If the Canes win the regular season & tourney title I think they deserve it over a 1 & done Duke team they split the season series with. Not sure how much weight the blow out @ home vs a close loss on the road holds but maybe those acronyms above will still be enough.

The committee considers major injuries.

Not that we would've beaten Miami at Coral Gables with the Kraken. But it would've been a hell of a lot closer.

But you're right, even with Duke's advantages in all the major categories, a regular season and tourney champ is hard to pass up. We'll see.

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>The committee considers major injuries.
>
>Not that we would've beaten Miami at Coral Gables with the
>Kraken. But it would've been a hell of a lot closer.

Maybe. I can't recall whens the last time (if ever) I saw a Duke squad completely outclassed like they were that night. It's hard for me to imagine he would've made much of a difference. He certainly did in the rematch though. Really wanted to see the tiebreaker w/ both teams @ full strength on a neutral floor to gauge both sqauds better.

>But you're right, even with Duke's advantages in all the major
>categories, a regular season and tourney champ is hard to pass
>up. We'll see.

Miami still has some work to do. But a 2 seed at worst for either squad shouldn't make much of a difference once the brackets come out. Unless there's travel implications that could be affected.

What if one of those teams draws the Midwest somehow, and has to play Indiana in Indianapolis in the Elite Eight?

Even WITH Ryan Kelly's missed games considered, Duke is #1 in RPI and has the toughest SOS, even after the loss. So I think they're still in the convo, even if the East is likely out, unless Louisville loses.

I think it plays out as follows:

- if Louisville wins, Kansas loses, Miami loses, then it's Indiana in the Midwest, Gonzaga in the West, Duke in the South, Louisville in the East.
- if only Kansas wins, then it's trickier. Not sure where they'd be geographically, and not sure whether Duke or Louisville would be top line.
- if only Miami wins out... I just don't see them bumping Miami all the way up. They do have a win over MSU, but their OOC results just don't match up with Duke, Kansas, Louisville. I think it'd be Duke in the South, Louisville in the East.
- if Louisville and Kansas win, it's likely Louisville and Kansas in the East and South... but (although it'd be controversial and maybe tragic for our hopes) you might actually see Duke hop Gonzaga and be in the West. We have higher RPI, BPI, SOS.
- if all three win out... I have no idea. Again, maybe Duke goes West. Maybe Duke AND the Zags fall to the 2 line.
- I haven't even mentioned if Indiana loses today. They'd still be a 1, but would potentially lose the Midwest region if Kansas wins today.

It's just tight tight tight. I don't think Duke is out of it, but we neeeeeeeeed Louisville to lose if we want a shot at the East.

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i still blame hip-hop.

Bracket Guys everywhere who would cyse Gonzaga any year as a 4 or 5 are all jumping off the bandwagon because they're a 1.

As if they don't have the best frontcourt in America.

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I honestly think that if it's any year for a 16 seed to beat a 1 seed...it's this one...

There is no unquestionable #1 team...

So depending on the brackets...it should be interesting to say the least...

>I honestly think that if it's any year for a 16 seed to beat
>a 1 seed...it's this one...
>
>There is no unquestionable #1 team...
>
>So depending on the brackets...it should be interesting to say
>the least...


I'd have to say they are the favorites for sure.

http://i.imgur.com/vPqCzVU.jpg

Despite no ridiculously dominant 1's, the 16's are still, well.....16's. I'd be shocked.


>I honestly think that if it's any year for a 16 seed to beat
>a 1 seed...it's this one...
>
>There is no unquestionable #1 team...
>
>So depending on the brackets...it should be interesting to say
>the least...

---------------------------------------------------------

I also don't think the 1s are that much worse than past years. There may not be a team with dominant raw stats, but there are multiple teams with comparable efficiency ratings to the championship teams of the last decade.

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people typically turn to the MEAC for them to pull it off since no other conference has more 15 seed upsets than them (Hampton in 2001, Norfolk St last year)...Norfolk State went one and done in the MEAC tournament this year and while i'm a proud Aggie...if A&T wins and gets in to the dance, they will probably be in the play-in game and I give them no shot to pull it off.

And you gotta have the right combo too...the worst seed has to be a squad full of seniors and juniors with experience and good coaching and the 1 seed has to have a young team...too much has to fall into place...

None of the #1 seeds say...dominant...but the 16 seeds could be worst than last year...

TCU would definitely be a 16 or worse, McLemore has struggled on the road, Elijah Johnson sometimes gets tunnel vision, and the right experienced team could...

... but then again, that's why I think Kansas may not get a 1 seed even WITH a win today. They're 9th in RPI, 6th in BPI, with the second worst SOS of the top ten RPI teams (Gonzaga by far with the worst). The committee wants to protect the 1 seeds from a first round loss. Ever. They may not risk throwing Kansas up there. (Though with the Duke and Georgetown losses, if Louisville also loses, they may not have a choice if Kansas wins.)

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