College hoops heads, is this actually going to happen? Nobody can really hold the crown for too long and they keep winning. That loss to Illinois doesn't look as bad, and those wins over Oklahoma State and K-State now looks pretty good. It would obviously depend on their bracket, but could they actually make a run at the Final Four?

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VCU made a final 4 run as an 11, Butler went to 2 straight titles, it's no longer a crazy thought to say a team like that can make a run to the final 4, just takes a few things breaking your way and getting hot at the right time.

I don't see a 1 seed though, I think the selection committee will still be too high on Indiana, Forida, Mighian, Duke, and Kansas as teams already ahead of Gonzaga and wouldn't be surprised to see Syracuse, Miami or Arizona if they can finish strong and win the conference tournaments.

I don't think they will want to put them as a 1 seed unless they really get forced into it

they've got vets (Harris), a legit 7'0 player, and some good guards. it's a well built team (that I haven't watched much).

that said, i don't think they've got the resume for a #1 spot. it's a strange year--there's a tier of 15-20 teams that have good resumes for a #2 slot, but not many #1 arguments. Zaga's no other potential signature wins left, their RPI will continue to fall as the WCC isn't that strong this year, and they needed to win @ Butler or beat Illinois to really cement their argument, considering the major conference winner will have a roughly equal regular season record (assuming top 15 teams win their conference) and an impressive tourney run.

Assume, for example, that Florida wins the SEC tourney--you gonna put Zaga over them? Indiana? Michigan? Cuse (uggh)? Zona? etc. there are too many other semi-legit #1 options out there

alladat said, it could happen. it's just not likely. more important to me is their kenpom rating is #10...so they're legit to me.

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Lose to St. Mary's but still win the WCC, face a 1 seed with a poor matchup? That's how Butler did it.

A run for a mid major 2 seed just is too tough IMO. They're likely facing upper echelon big conference teams at least twice, and maybe a talented underperformer at the 7/10 slot.

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First, I think they have to go in only losing two games... which means they can't lose at St. Mary's on Valentines Day. That's a must win.

Second, all the other two and three loss teams need to lose a couple more times. It's possible a number of four loss teams have a better resume than Gonzaga's two loss team.

Most of the top twenty in the BPI will face a few ranked teams in the last six to eight games, and they'll take part in tougher conference tournaments. If Duke can only lose a game more and get Ryan Kelly back, they're likely. If Indiana wins the Big Ten, they're a lock. If Miami wins out and wins the ACC Tourney, they're hard to pass up. If Cuse goes in with four losses and wins the conference tourney, they're a lock. UF's SOS is weak, but if they win out, they're in great shape.

I know I'm dropping "win out" or "only lose one more" like it's easy. But the fact is out of all of the BPI Top 20, Gonzaga has the second lowest SOS. Many teams in that ballpark, even if they have a worse loss, will have MORE big wins.

I'd say the Zags are likelier for a two if they win out. If they lose to St. Mary's, maybe a three or a four.

The top ranked mid-major team usually loses by or before the Sweet 16. The committee wants their 2 seed to make the Elite Eight.

The likely top four:
Duke/Miami
Indy/Mich
Cuse/L'Ville (I know folks are low on them but their BPI/SOS is high enough that if they can win the Big East Tourney and get another good win or two, they'll be right in there)

Fourth could be any of the above plus Michigan State, Florida, Arizona, or Kansas.

If all the aforementioned teams lose at least three games a pop (not impossible), then the Zags enter the convo.

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